Balta1701

Of course. Whether they did a good job in the trades at the time and whether things turned out well in the long run are distinct questions but important to assess both.

Anderson clearly wasn't bringing anything of value at all back. If you want out of his contract, you can do so at the end of the year with no costs.

"Other teams are skeptical enough of Dylan Cease's long term value that they were unwilling to make fair offers now when his control was maximized" would be a worrying result in other ways.

In the attendance figures where the White Sox are down like 4000 a game since last year.

Unless they banned the Jesse Crain style deals at some point, we know you can move a guy just off the IL with the return being contingent on what he does the rest of the year. There was no baseball reason why he’s still here, people were ranking him as obvious to move as Middleton. No team was willing to risk having him on their roster, and with his behavior this year that’s the right call.

This is the most obvious explanation for why he wasn’t moved, that literally no GM wants him at any price.

I’m not sure that I’d describe holding Cease at the deadline and continuing to insist that you expect to compete next year to be “rational”.

These are the people who picked up Kimbrel’s option for no good reason other than their own stubbornness. Do not ascribe logic to people known to act irrationally.

So you’re saying he will be in the big league bullpen next year?

I’ll take a different perspective - The biggest problem with the white Sox lineup is OBP. They’re middle of the pack or bottom of the pack on HR, slugging, etc, but they have the worst OBP in baseball. Not only that, but presumably Grandal is gone next year, so it might even get worse. This is one of those fundamental, flawed approach things that they will never win without overcoming.

I'm not even sure that was in the top 10.

My target for Cease was always "two top level prospects and an interesting third or fourth piece". I wasn't wedded to any particular set of names, but obviously I thought the matchup for Baltimore made so much sense. What the #3 guy would have to be would depend on what the #1 and #2 guys were. If Baltimore (or some other team) was only offering 1 key piece with a couple of weak second and third options (non top 100 or whatever line you want to draw), then that's the kind of offer I'd have to turn down, I'd believe that's a weak enough offer you could beat in the offseason. I would be surprised if no one made an offer that I'd have accepted. If no one did, then that might actually be a sign that teams are down on Dylan Cease and really do think he's the pitcher seen this year.

I find it hard to believe that pitching in the offseason will garner the same sort of premium prices we were seeing pitching go for now. Even the expensive guys brought back significant returns to the Mets. The offseason just doesn't do this, teams will just spend FA money rather than make deals like this. The trade deadline next year, I'm not sure. If he has a similar year to this year, he will be worth less - the loss of the year of control will really matter. If he's having a much better year (certainly possible) then you're right and he'll have more value. If things go worse, well...

A couple posts saying this not sure if it's legit.

C. The early moves were solid on paper. The decision to hang onto Cease while trading Burger for the return that came back is confusing.

I was much more noting the fact that this clears out a 40 man spot for the Marlins, so it was someone they might have pressure to move.

Not sure if this is quite as highly ranked of a return as I wanted, and it's surprising that the White Sox would turn Burger into someone with 40 man pressure, but I get the move overall.

Very true, but one player (who has a recent history of serious injury) is always going to be a higher injury risk than several players (especially if they don't yet have a history of recent injury).

And those deals are actually somewhat useful here to remember. Quintana was significantly worse in the two seasons after he was traded, had the White Sox held him his value would have dropped precipitously. Chris Sale gave Boston one really good year and then started getting hurt regularly, had the White Sox held him his value would have dropped precipitously. Adam Eaton resumed getting hurt immediately after he was traded, had the White Sox held him his value would have dropped precipitously. Had the White Sox held those guys, they would probably have 0 playoff appearances in the last 15 years.

I'm still not convinced what I'd do in this case (would depend on what actual offers were) but I submit that there is a very high chance that holding onto Robert will backfire. You have seen lots of examples of this already on the White Sox - Moncada, Anderson, Eloy - you have guys who are struggling due to injuries, you have guys who are struggling because of who knows what reasons, you may have attitude complaints, you have guys whose approaches have gotten vastly worse, you have guys who have broken down physically well before you would have hoped. It does not take many obscene or unlikely things to happen for this to be the peak value of Luis Robert's career and for Robert to be quite a bit less valuable by next season.

Well, you’re making it sound like the White Sox’s bullpen performance, although awful because Hahn did an awful job, isn’t going to reshape the organization if it is improved. And that Cleveland and Minnesota have almost as much room for improvement as the White Sox.

And MLB.com has their system as 6th at the 2022 midseason. https://www.mlb.com/news/farm-system-rankings-2022-midseason

How many $100 million contracts did they sign the last two years?

“A lot can change by 2025” according to a poster in this thread.

What is Minnesotas record in those cases?