Balta1701

Maybe the problem isn’t pride, maybe it’s the team that was put together. This Medina is striking out 8 per 9 innings so he has decent stuff, but he’s walking 5 per 9 innings. To beat him you have to be patient and take your walks. You have to be smart. The White Sox players have been coached since they started in this org to swing harder if they’re struggling, to get more aggressive as the solution to problems. They avoid bringing in guys like Nimmo who take a ton of walks because they’re effective and that makes them too expensive. As a team they have been constructed to struggle against youngsters who are wild. And literally no one thinks Banks should be a long term starting option. You could ask me or you to go out there on the mound and no matter how much pride we have, we will struggle because we can’t possibly do what is asked of us, we can’t be expected to be a 6th starter, so maybe we should blame The guy who didn’t bring one in. Maybe they have plenty of pride and they’re doing the best they can at being themselves. Maybe we are asking guys to do things they can’t do. Maybe we should blame the guy who picks players and who decides on the coaching staff and overall philosophy, and who leaves all these holes and weaknesses.

I know it’s the more likely route. It’s also the route Rick Hahn has been the absolute worst at. That’s how we got 2015 and 2016, traded away 2 MVP candidates, gave contracts to guys like Austin Jackson and Melky Cabrera, drafted relievers with our first round picks. Every year the White Sox tried to do that set them back 2 years. The idea of Hahn doing this again should be nightmare fuel.

Are you willing to trust Rick Hahn trying again to turn a 4th place team into a contender on the fly, by trading away minor leaguers and making dumpster diving signings of veterans?

Yes I would say there is a very good chance this is correct. Look at the ticket sales and interest that this organization got after 2005 - they averaged 36,511 a game! That's almost twice what they're averaging now! Imagine the TV dollars that had to come with that, with people actually tuning in. And since the Reinsdorfs own a lot of the parking area, that's pure profit for them, rather than the half empty lots you find today. He might not keep up those same numbers, and eventually they'd have to rebuild, but you can regularly see other franchises like this who are very successful. The Phillies are my favorite example - won the 2008 World Series, attendance spike up to 44,000 a game. Had to rebuild, by 2017 were down to a very WhiteSox like 24000 a game. Signed Harper, big attendance spike. Went to the World Series last year, back up to 39,000 a game. This is normal for franchises that are regularly competitive, they are super profitable because they pack their park, they get eyes tuning in, they sell big endorsement and ad deals, etc. Aside from the Mets and maybe the Padres, teams like this are raking in money, and they're getting huge spikes in their franchise value on top of it. Jerry Reinsdorf is literally watching his franchise wither away in front of him. Excluding COVID weirdness, he's going to go a decade at or near the bottom 1/3 of the league in attendance. People aren't interested in his franchise, they're finding other things of interest because the White Sox are regularly so bad. The franchise value is hurt, the revenue state is poor, all because of the decisions him and his top staff are making. When it really hits the fan is going to be 2029/2030 when their sweetheart deal for the stadium expires, and you wind up with the White Sox wanting a new stadium and them being laughed out of Springfield by the state legislature.

I struggle to believe that Jerry is losing patience with Hahn, I really think there's a cadre of yes-men who keep telling the boss he's doing a great job. However, I will continue to note that it is possible to find GMs who do better than this even in the White Sox's organization. Kenny Williams, for example, was better than this. He wasn't the best GM in the world, but he was better than where we are now. Just an improvement could be enough to turn this team from a flop to a team regularly making playoff appearances. It is possible that a move that appears to be lateral or not an improvement on paper will actually be better than this. It cannot hurt to try.

I remember that in the final deal the As got back big league ready young pitching and the White Sox had literally zero of that in their entire organization?

being put in the bullpen for 2021.

I believe White Sox fans have long been the sort who don’t care for stuff like That unless there is a winning team on the field. They have several feel good stories this year and a dramatic attendance drop. Hahnball just doesn’t sell tickets, you actually have to have a competitive team.

Yes, this would be their 8th time being 13 games under .500 this season, and the et have been 14 below twice.

Yeah but then we turned that reliever into an awesome corner OF who even has reverse platoon splits, and since the OF spots are exchangeable that solved the RF hole once and for all.

You and I have talked about this before. Burger is 27, he’s not young; he’s in his prime years. He’s inexperienced so he has room to get better, but it isn’t long before he’s actually old. He has two severe injuries on his record. Finally, he’s a big body who already doesn’t move well, and those guys have a history of not aging well. If the White Sox aren’t competitive the next 2 years, are we confident he’s going to still be useful when he’s 30? Maybe, but the two years he gives to us could definitely be more useful for someone who needs a DH right now. And if he does have more injury problems, at least we cashed him in for something that could be useful in a couple years. Furthermore, Moncada is basically untradeable with that contract, so if he can walk next April he’s going to start at 3b to see if he can build any value. Burger is a guy whose profile says he cannot help the White Sox right now, that means if you can get anything for him you must do so.

The White Sox are 12-12 in 1-run games. They are better in 1 run games than they are in blowouts. This is selective memory- because the White Sox have heartbreaking losses, we can pretend those go away to make the team better; but we forget the magic unbelievable victories that could also easily have gone the other way. The Twins are 8-14 in those games. Case in point. They lost on a wild pitch last night. Totally unbelievable as bad luck right? They won on a wild pitch that bounced off an ump earlier this month! They won a game on a super controversial call earlier this month, when an earlier season version of the Sox lost on that same call. They have the 6th worst run differential in baseball half way through the year. They are barely above the rebuilding Nationals and Tigers. These are not competitive teams

Balta's version of a trade deadline while procrastinating on real work? First, while Firing Rick Hahn is obvious and mandatory, that doesn't impact this discussion, this should happen regardless of who the GM is because of the White Sox's situation. Second, because the farm system is so bare, there is little to no help coming from the minor leagues next year. Even Montgomery can't be counted on as making anything other than a rushed appearance in 2024 given his delay this year, and we need to stop rushing guys anyway. Third, financially the White Sox are a mess. If there is no budget cut next year (one seems likely), they will have about $40 million to spend. They will be replacing 3 starters (Lynn, Giolito, Clevinger), they will have lost Kelly and Lopez from their bullpen, although no big loss they won't have Grandal or Andrus. At the very least, just to have some semblance of depth, you're talking about 3 starters, a reliever/swingman, and a couple of position players, and that's just to tread water below .500. You're talking about spending like $8 million per player, which means we are dumpster diving for literally everything. So, we need to do two things. We need to find talent to repair the system, and we need to move money off of this roster as fast as humanly possible. Everything should be sacrificed for those two goals. If money is moved, then we can use playing time and money, dumpster-diving as we will be doing, to help rebuild the system. The White Sox have had some success at finding guys like this: Cueto would have had trade value last year, Rodon would have had trade value the year before, Clevinger has no value this year. Thus, here's the trade format. First, guys who can possibly return something of actual value. Robert: You listen to offers on him, but I don't believe anyone is likely to trade what it would take to get him with 4.5 years of control. You'd almost need the Orioles to empty their system to get a guy under control that long, and teams with 4 or 5 top 100 prospects won't give up that much. Cease: Move him if you can. The target is approximately 2 top-100 prospects or 1 truly high value target. I think there is a solid chance this could happen. Giolito: He should be moved. Last year, the best starter to move on a 1 year deal was Quintana to the Cardinals, he returned a guy the Pirates have converted into a decent 25 year old starter this year (Oviedo) and a guy who was the Cardinals #10 prospect at the time, now the Pirates #14 prospect. He does not net you a top 100 prospect in return, but he can get you two players able to contribute within 2 to 3 years. Burger: He is cheap, under control, and will provide power. He is already 27, so he is a poor fit for the White Sox to hold. He won't return a top 100 prospect, but if you can get a player who slots into the White Sox's top 10 or so prospects, this is more valuable to us than Burger at present. Gravemann: Should return a prospect of some sort. Not a top 100 prospect, but someone useful who can be added to the system. The other young relievers: I'll listen on anyone if you're giving me actual talent in return. Kelly: eh, he's almost in the next category. Take what you can get. Guys you should try to move to clear money. Grandal, Lynn, Lopez. If you have to eat 90% of their remaining deals, but you can save $1-2 million each, that is money I can use next year. Eat their deals as needed. Someone will give you $1 million for a backup catcher or $2 million for an experienced back of the rotation starter. I would. Benintendi: I want him gone and will do what I can to make this happen. The White Sox cannot afford to pay guys like this to get older in the outfield in their current state, and the risk is all on the White Sox, if he gets hurt or struggles worse then they're stuck with his full deal. His contract was $75 million, if I can get someone to take on $40 million of his deal I would do it. Call $35 million the "Rick Hahn is a stupid head" penalty. Eloy: Same setup as Benintendi, although you should at least get a player back. The White Sox are holding all the risk of him getting hurt and costing them money, and they barely have a place for him to play. Find some team with a strong coach and a DH hole and send him there for limited return. Anderson: Same story for me. His option is going to be picked up, but I'd rather have a dumpster-diving $5 million backup SS next year or something like that than Anderson with what I have to do to this roster. Bummer: Would anyone actually take on the majority of his contract? We'd have to do that if someone would right? Guys you hold: Moncada: There's no benefit to eating his whole deal. If someone would take on $10 million of his remaining $34 million, do that, but who is doing that for a guy with a back problem? Hendriks: Either the White Sox destroyed his arm permanently by bringing him back too early, or he will be back and hopefully worth something of value at the trade deadline next year. If his arm is destroyed, then you have to turn down his option and play that mean game. Clevinger: Will be pitching in Korea next year, no one will want him. Not worth the time, let him play out the year. Kopech: Hopefully shows improvement next year, and anyway someone needs to pitch. Wouldn't return enough to make it worth it. Vaughn: Not going to return enough to justify moving him. Zavala: will need someone to catch. Next offseason you're still stuck with some bad money, paying off Moncada, Benintendi, Hendriks, with a dramatic drop in ticket sales again. But, you have probably $75 million to spend. I'm going to be putting out a rotation of Kopech followed by 4 fairly pathetic looking guys each making $10 million next year, and I'm going to have similar garbage at SS, LF, DH, and on the bench. However, some of these guys will play well enough to be tradable, and that's all I'm after out of 2024. The money I will have to spend will be spent trying to find guys who are tradable, and by claiming guys who have fallen out of favor elsewhere. At the very least, aside from Moncada and I guess Robert, I have removed the risk of holding onto these guys and getting stuck with their money on the books for the next 2-3 years. This will not be pleasant, but it's necessary to undo the damage done already. It also will not happen, because we have to "achieve our goals for 2024".

https://www.nbcsportschicago.com/mlb/chicago-white-sox/rick-hahn-referred-to-himself-as-a-jackass-as-fernando-tatis-jr-came-up-again-at-soxfest/320178/

This is as much of a "White Sox" complaint as I can possibly get, but this is the White Sox we're talking about, with their union rep, and with serious payroll limitations. So we're going to say this, and everyone here has a sneaking worry about this already with our owner. There is a nonzero chance the White Sox would decline to offer him a QO if they don't trade him. I don't know what the actual chances are, but we literally just had this discussion 2 offseasons ago and they let a guy go without a QO where they clearly could have offered one. He got a QO one year later from a better franchise.

If there is a significant payroll cut coming next year again, then although not picking up the option seems unwise, moving him at the deadline this year just to get the money off of the 2024 payroll and get something in return would be part of my plan if I wrote one.

I don't know what the next month will look like for Cease, but I will definitely listen on him if I were to get an offer with a strong return. The potential of having a guy for 3 postseason runs instead of 2 should make him far more valuable, and in the offseason teams needing pitching will be more likely to just splurge on a free agent like Giolito rather than make a big trade. Robert is more challenging. He is about to make his first all start team, and he is under control for 4.5 years! A team trading for him right now would be acquiring the guy for up to 5 postseason runs. The value of this player is so high that it's hard to fathom anyone actually putting the price on the table he would require. The Juan Soto trade, for example, was for a guy who would be under Padres control for 1.5 years, only 2 postseason runs, and he returned several top 100 prospects along with guys who were recent dropouts/graduates from the top 100 and a recent draftee. Robert isn't on Soto's level, but he's cheaper and under control for so ungodly long. Could anyone imagine what "twice Juan Soto's cost to the Padres" would look like on paper? We're talking about what, 4 top 100 prospects and more beyond that? The cost for Robert is so high based on the years of control that it is difficult to see anyone meeting it. Most teams simply can't. The handful who have that amount of talent probably wouldn't do so.

What are the White Sox giving up that Baltimore needs? A quick look suggests he's likely quite a bit more valuable than what you could return for a guy with 1 year of control like Giolito or one of the relievers. If the White Sox were to move Cease or (eek) Robert, he could be a part of a package for either of them.

.255/.332/.433/.765 is the average for all 1b this year so far. This is the highest offensive output of any position.

Genuinely uncertain about this - would trying to do this get the White Sox into "grievance and arbitration/court case" territory?

The only path to competing requires the White Sox to sign multiple pitchers to Clevinger and Cueto like deals, at least 3 to 4 of them, and have them all work out at least as well as Cueto did. That could just get them to tread water, 10 games below .500 again. They would then need an improved performance from the offense and defense "Somehow", because a team at the bottom of the league in those categories is going to stay at the bottom of the league. Finally, they would need no team to run away with the AL Central or wild card, as even by luck it is tough to see them getting to 90 wins. They have to do all of this while spending something like $40 million or less, assuming they can get to this years' payroll again. If they have to do a payroll cut (and they have a drop of more than 4000 tickets sold per game compared to 2022 so far this year), they will have less to spend than that.

Worth noting that ZiPS had the White Sox at 74-88, 14 games under .500, and they're right on track for that kind of a finish? PECOTA had them at 77.7 wins.