Balta1701

Yeah but then we turned that reliever into an awesome corner OF who even has reverse platoon splits, and since the OF spots are exchangeable that solved the RF hole once and for all.

You and I have talked about this before. Burger is 27, he’s not young; he’s in his prime years. He’s inexperienced so he has room to get better, but it isn’t long before he’s actually old. He has two severe injuries on his record. Finally, he’s a big body who already doesn’t move well, and those guys have a history of not aging well. If the White Sox aren’t competitive the next 2 years, are we confident he’s going to still be useful when he’s 30? Maybe, but the two years he gives to us could definitely be more useful for someone who needs a DH right now. And if he does have more injury problems, at least we cashed him in for something that could be useful in a couple years. Furthermore, Moncada is basically untradeable with that contract, so if he can walk next April he’s going to start at 3b to see if he can build any value. Burger is a guy whose profile says he cannot help the White Sox right now, that means if you can get anything for him you must do so.

The White Sox are 12-12 in 1-run games. They are better in 1 run games than they are in blowouts. This is selective memory- because the White Sox have heartbreaking losses, we can pretend those go away to make the team better; but we forget the magic unbelievable victories that could also easily have gone the other way. The Twins are 8-14 in those games. Case in point. They lost on a wild pitch last night. Totally unbelievable as bad luck right? They won on a wild pitch that bounced off an ump earlier this month! They won a game on a super controversial call earlier this month, when an earlier season version of the Sox lost on that same call. They have the 6th worst run differential in baseball half way through the year. They are barely above the rebuilding Nationals and Tigers. These are not competitive teams

Balta's version of a trade deadline while procrastinating on real work? First, while Firing Rick Hahn is obvious and mandatory, that doesn't impact this discussion, this should happen regardless of who the GM is because of the White Sox's situation. Second, because the farm system is so bare, there is little to no help coming from the minor leagues next year. Even Montgomery can't be counted on as making anything other than a rushed appearance in 2024 given his delay this year, and we need to stop rushing guys anyway. Third, financially the White Sox are a mess. If there is no budget cut next year (one seems likely), they will have about $40 million to spend. They will be replacing 3 starters (Lynn, Giolito, Clevinger), they will have lost Kelly and Lopez from their bullpen, although no big loss they won't have Grandal or Andrus. At the very least, just to have some semblance of depth, you're talking about 3 starters, a reliever/swingman, and a couple of position players, and that's just to tread water below .500. You're talking about spending like $8 million per player, which means we are dumpster diving for literally everything. So, we need to do two things. We need to find talent to repair the system, and we need to move money off of this roster as fast as humanly possible. Everything should be sacrificed for those two goals. If money is moved, then we can use playing time and money, dumpster-diving as we will be doing, to help rebuild the system. The White Sox have had some success at finding guys like this: Cueto would have had trade value last year, Rodon would have had trade value the year before, Clevinger has no value this year. Thus, here's the trade format. First, guys who can possibly return something of actual value. Robert: You listen to offers on him, but I don't believe anyone is likely to trade what it would take to get him with 4.5 years of control. You'd almost need the Orioles to empty their system to get a guy under control that long, and teams with 4 or 5 top 100 prospects won't give up that much. Cease: Move him if you can. The target is approximately 2 top-100 prospects or 1 truly high value target. I think there is a solid chance this could happen. Giolito: He should be moved. Last year, the best starter to move on a 1 year deal was Quintana to the Cardinals, he returned a guy the Pirates have converted into a decent 25 year old starter this year (Oviedo) and a guy who was the Cardinals #10 prospect at the time, now the Pirates #14 prospect. He does not net you a top 100 prospect in return, but he can get you two players able to contribute within 2 to 3 years. Burger: He is cheap, under control, and will provide power. He is already 27, so he is a poor fit for the White Sox to hold. He won't return a top 100 prospect, but if you can get a player who slots into the White Sox's top 10 or so prospects, this is more valuable to us than Burger at present. Gravemann: Should return a prospect of some sort. Not a top 100 prospect, but someone useful who can be added to the system. The other young relievers: I'll listen on anyone if you're giving me actual talent in return. Kelly: eh, he's almost in the next category. Take what you can get. Guys you should try to move to clear money. Grandal, Lynn, Lopez. If you have to eat 90% of their remaining deals, but you can save $1-2 million each, that is money I can use next year. Eat their deals as needed. Someone will give you $1 million for a backup catcher or $2 million for an experienced back of the rotation starter. I would. Benintendi: I want him gone and will do what I can to make this happen. The White Sox cannot afford to pay guys like this to get older in the outfield in their current state, and the risk is all on the White Sox, if he gets hurt or struggles worse then they're stuck with his full deal. His contract was $75 million, if I can get someone to take on $40 million of his deal I would do it. Call $35 million the "Rick Hahn is a stupid head" penalty. Eloy: Same setup as Benintendi, although you should at least get a player back. The White Sox are holding all the risk of him getting hurt and costing them money, and they barely have a place for him to play. Find some team with a strong coach and a DH hole and send him there for limited return. Anderson: Same story for me. His option is going to be picked up, but I'd rather have a dumpster-diving $5 million backup SS next year or something like that than Anderson with what I have to do to this roster. Bummer: Would anyone actually take on the majority of his contract? We'd have to do that if someone would right? Guys you hold: Moncada: There's no benefit to eating his whole deal. If someone would take on $10 million of his remaining $34 million, do that, but who is doing that for a guy with a back problem? Hendriks: Either the White Sox destroyed his arm permanently by bringing him back too early, or he will be back and hopefully worth something of value at the trade deadline next year. If his arm is destroyed, then you have to turn down his option and play that mean game. Clevinger: Will be pitching in Korea next year, no one will want him. Not worth the time, let him play out the year. Kopech: Hopefully shows improvement next year, and anyway someone needs to pitch. Wouldn't return enough to make it worth it. Vaughn: Not going to return enough to justify moving him. Zavala: will need someone to catch. Next offseason you're still stuck with some bad money, paying off Moncada, Benintendi, Hendriks, with a dramatic drop in ticket sales again. But, you have probably $75 million to spend. I'm going to be putting out a rotation of Kopech followed by 4 fairly pathetic looking guys each making $10 million next year, and I'm going to have similar garbage at SS, LF, DH, and on the bench. However, some of these guys will play well enough to be tradable, and that's all I'm after out of 2024. The money I will have to spend will be spent trying to find guys who are tradable, and by claiming guys who have fallen out of favor elsewhere. At the very least, aside from Moncada and I guess Robert, I have removed the risk of holding onto these guys and getting stuck with their money on the books for the next 2-3 years. This will not be pleasant, but it's necessary to undo the damage done already. It also will not happen, because we have to "achieve our goals for 2024".

https://www.nbcsportschicago.com/mlb/chicago-white-sox/rick-hahn-referred-to-himself-as-a-jackass-as-fernando-tatis-jr-came-up-again-at-soxfest/320178/

This is as much of a "White Sox" complaint as I can possibly get, but this is the White Sox we're talking about, with their union rep, and with serious payroll limitations. So we're going to say this, and everyone here has a sneaking worry about this already with our owner. There is a nonzero chance the White Sox would decline to offer him a QO if they don't trade him. I don't know what the actual chances are, but we literally just had this discussion 2 offseasons ago and they let a guy go without a QO where they clearly could have offered one. He got a QO one year later from a better franchise.

If there is a significant payroll cut coming next year again, then although not picking up the option seems unwise, moving him at the deadline this year just to get the money off of the 2024 payroll and get something in return would be part of my plan if I wrote one.

I don't know what the next month will look like for Cease, but I will definitely listen on him if I were to get an offer with a strong return. The potential of having a guy for 3 postseason runs instead of 2 should make him far more valuable, and in the offseason teams needing pitching will be more likely to just splurge on a free agent like Giolito rather than make a big trade. Robert is more challenging. He is about to make his first all start team, and he is under control for 4.5 years! A team trading for him right now would be acquiring the guy for up to 5 postseason runs. The value of this player is so high that it's hard to fathom anyone actually putting the price on the table he would require. The Juan Soto trade, for example, was for a guy who would be under Padres control for 1.5 years, only 2 postseason runs, and he returned several top 100 prospects along with guys who were recent dropouts/graduates from the top 100 and a recent draftee. Robert isn't on Soto's level, but he's cheaper and under control for so ungodly long. Could anyone imagine what "twice Juan Soto's cost to the Padres" would look like on paper? We're talking about what, 4 top 100 prospects and more beyond that? The cost for Robert is so high based on the years of control that it is difficult to see anyone meeting it. Most teams simply can't. The handful who have that amount of talent probably wouldn't do so.

What are the White Sox giving up that Baltimore needs? A quick look suggests he's likely quite a bit more valuable than what you could return for a guy with 1 year of control like Giolito or one of the relievers. If the White Sox were to move Cease or (eek) Robert, he could be a part of a package for either of them.

.255/.332/.433/.765 is the average for all 1b this year so far. This is the highest offensive output of any position.

Genuinely uncertain about this - would trying to do this get the White Sox into "grievance and arbitration/court case" territory?

The only path to competing requires the White Sox to sign multiple pitchers to Clevinger and Cueto like deals, at least 3 to 4 of them, and have them all work out at least as well as Cueto did. That could just get them to tread water, 10 games below .500 again. They would then need an improved performance from the offense and defense "Somehow", because a team at the bottom of the league in those categories is going to stay at the bottom of the league. Finally, they would need no team to run away with the AL Central or wild card, as even by luck it is tough to see them getting to 90 wins. They have to do all of this while spending something like $40 million or less, assuming they can get to this years' payroll again. If they have to do a payroll cut (and they have a drop of more than 4000 tickets sold per game compared to 2022 so far this year), they will have less to spend than that.

Worth noting that ZiPS had the White Sox at 74-88, 14 games under .500, and they're right on track for that kind of a finish? PECOTA had them at 77.7 wins.

I 100% believe that if Tony LaRussa was medically capable of managing the White Sox he would be managing the White Sox right now, and I also believe they'd be a couple games worse than they are right now because his choices go beyond baffling to the point of "doing stupid things because I have to prove I'm smarter than everyone else". What exactly knocked him out last year, something internal or a continued problem with substances, I don't know, but he'd be here right now if it wasn't for that.

Here is a plot this year of K/9 on the X axis and BABIP on the Y-Axis. If your statement was true, then there should be a negative correlation here. There is not, these two properties are effectively uncorrelated (R2 = 0.0085 for a linear fit). However, the White Sox's .263 BABIP for the last 2 months - that would very much stand out as it is lower than any other value on that plot. The story is very much clear, the White Sox's pitching struggled for the first month, because they had generally bad luck. They have been above average for the following 2 months, because they were particularly lucky. It has balanced out them being a somewhat below average staff overall with average luck, because they are a somewhat below average staff overall.

Your three choices are: 1. Rick Hahn leads a rebuild. 2. Rick Han leads a retooling. 3. You find another team/another sport to cheer for. These are the orders of leader Reindsorf. No other options are acceptable.

Do you want Hahn trying to retool a 4th place roster in the offseason with limited resources to spend? As much grief as he has gotten for the last couple years, nothing he has done has been as damaging as his retooling attempts.

Since May 1, they have a 3.63 ERA which is the 4th best in baseball over that stretch. However, this is driven by the fact that their .263 BABIP over that stretch is the best in baseball. Given that their defense is bad and their ground ball rates are low, this should be read as an unsustainable number. Their strand rate is also pretty high - this is simply a lucky stretch for them. It probably balances out their bad April, but it also won’t last the whole season. Their FIP numbers for this stretch alone are in the middle of the league. They have been lucky since May 1. They were somewhat unlucky before that. Overall they’re still not very good.

The hitting coach has been here 3 months. Yes things are clearly worse under this staff, but who hired these hitting coaches?

Kris Bryant has 5 years and $131 million remaining on his deal - after this season. Youd be taking on $140 million if you traded for him at the deadline. Moncada and Eloy have about $42 million remaining after August 1. I am too lazy to look up Palmquist but I struggle to think he’s worth $100 million.

Didn’t they win a game 2 weeks ago on a wild pitch that bounced off the umpire? Kinda seems like winning games on wild pitches is a 50/50 strategy.

This is a real good bullpen? Their ERA is 24th in baseball. They’re probably average if Hendriks were here?

Don’t worry, we won’t extend our CF.

Yes, 28th baseball. But, this pitching staff isn’t good either. They’re bad, just not awful. Picking windows where they are all the way up to tolerable and saying “if they could avoid the losing streaks” ignores how unavoidable those losing streaks are with a roster this weak and with this little depth. Last years team was 16 over if it wasn’t for the two 8 game losing streaks!

The White Sox are 23rd in MLB in pitching fWAR.