Balta1701

Houston is definitely calling it quits/going cheap by letting both of these guys go. But they went to $255 million in payroll last year, Tucker and Bregman alone easily push them to $250 million+ this year with no extra additions, and their team last year just wasn't great. There was a lot of unhappiness at this fanbase when they traded away a couple of minor prospects last year because the fanbase could tell they needed some young guys and those young guys helped when they arrived. They're going cheap, but they're also filling multiple holes with a single deal. I think this city was mostly prepped for that. They're cheaper now, they're cheaper still if they trade Framber, but that leaves them room to spend elsewhere.

I think the .850 OPS, 5-WAR per year player the Astros had from 2021-2023 is a $350 million player. Last year, he took a jump to a 1.000 OPS.

The Yankees gave up catcher Kyle Higashioka, who was important for the Padres this year, 3 pitchers who were on the edge of the big leagues including Michael King who put up 4 WAR for the Padres this year and looks like a solid rotation piece for them next year, and one minor league pitcher - Drew Thorpe. Yea, that one. Michael King didn't have a lot of control left, but the padres got a lot out of him last year by moving him to full time starter. I'm not sure that its heavily in either direction.

Before he fouled a ball off his shin this year, Tucker was otherworldly, he was on a path to the AL MVP award with a shot at 50+ home runs. If you see that player again next year, I could seem him maybe even pushing close to $500 million. I have no concept of what it would take for the Cubs to extend him right now.

Thinking about it - in terms of "happy to see the Astros take a step back", the Astros have been so good at player development that I wonder if we will be happy about this in 2 years.

This is definitely a "We're out on Bregman" move.

One White Sox angle - its darn smart that Getz got the Crochet deal done when he did, as Framber Valdez is clearly on the trade block from Houston now and, although he's more expensive in dollars, he has a postseason pedigree that Crochet doesn't have.

2.

Without even focusing on the guy or guys that I think are overrated…what are the odds that all 4 of those guys stay healthy for a full year? This can be said about literally any set of 4 pitchers in the big leagues.

That's part of the problem - When you are buying guys in their late 30s, going for them to fill your DH role specifically because they're cheap and because your team isn't developing enough guys to fill that spot internally, there is a very high chance of it busting. Adam Dunn, Adam LaRoche, Edwin Encarnacion - 3 data points is enough to define a pattern. All of them seemed like smart signings at the time.

While you couldn't prove that...that would be a pretty red flag and a lot of questions would get asked. That could easily be the kind of thing that ends an agents career and provokes pretty severe restrictions from MLB. They could literally void Sasaki's signing, they did something similar with a bunch of Braves prospects. If you tried to do it in Y1, MLB is going to come in asking all sorts of questions because of how weird that deal would be. You're going to sign the guy for what, 16 years and $350 million after 1 year? Think that would look a little weird? If you tried to do it in contract Y5, you're going to have to pay him a fair contract anyway, and if he wanted to say no, he's 1 year away from free agency.

While I have no major qualms with this deal, let's also note that on paper, Rick Hahn did better than this return several times in trades. This package seems fine, it seems fair, it seems like a good deal and one we should do, whereas Hahn got a couple of packages that on paper made you say "Wow that's a great return" because of a strong headliner. I'll cite the Quintana trade where I said "Wow I didn't think he could get a package like this with how the player is performing." However, now with hindsight, literally no one will say "he knew what he was doing."

Just to calibrate, the Fangrapsh projection has him at 2/$24, MLBTR has him 2/$20.

I think this is the case with most of the White Sox's arms. Some of them may fall apart and wind up bullpen arms, but a good first half could turn some of them into guys who you decide whether they're rotation pieces or possible trade bait. If Davis Martin were to have a good first half I don't see why you wouldn't listen to offers on him, for example.

I don't have the exact text of the question that was asked of his agent, but the articles out there strongly suggest that the "mid to small market" description was in reply to a question about the Padres.

I don’t think the Astros will do this until they actually know if they’re losing Bregman.

People have been trying to imagine a rotation with Crochet, Smith, and Schultz, but if we think of it this way - a rotation with Smith and Schultz as the actual team stars, combined with a lineup that at least has several good players in it rather than a complete black hole 1-9, is at least a start. You actually have to turn those pitchers into 5 WAR+ lefties and many other spots matter, but at least if you turn these guys into big league regulars, its a start.

I'm sorry about 2020 through 2023. That really had to hurt. A lot.

If the Astros are actually able to get good value for Tucker from The Cubs I’d almost guarantee they’d trade Valdez as well. That’s the kind of reliable, playoff experienced, innings eating arm Baltimore could use, and the Astros really need 1b help.

A couple replies. First, although Quero is listed as a switch hitter, his OPS in the minors against lefties is like 300 points higher than his OPS against righties. So on paper, this actually sets up a decent catching platoon, and you could play around with the DH and pinch hitting a lot to make matchups work if you’re willing to risk losing your backup catchers. Second, I will grant you Montgomery is a risk. I’m not sure he’d be as available without the injury, so there’s a risk reward here, but yes we are hanging a lot on the White Sox’s ability to evaluate injuries having improved. We can leave this open until the season starts, as an early IL stint or a lot of struggles could be a real red flag in an organization where other prospects with the same last name may also be having unacknowledged physical issues.

If Lee hits well enough to hang on a big league roster next year, backup catchers are always in need at the trade deadline, you’d at least get something, some minor league pitcher for him.

You're right, development isn't linear. But how many guys with Zavala's profile are going to never even make AAA? It's a majority right? That alone makes it a weak return for a guy like Cease, having so many steps that he has to go through where things could go wrong.

The Cease trade looked bad at the start, Thorpe was all right but the other two didn't look that great at the time. Zavala had a long way to go and a lot of things that could go wrong, and Iriarte seemed like a wild card. That trade looked much weaker than this one at the start, and that's not even considering that Thorpe might have gotten the "Yankee prospect boost".

Yup, it literally took me one godd*mned post using only his last name before my brain glitched on which Montgomery was being talked about. Motherf***er...

This may be the most mind-breaking concept I have ever seen presented at Soxtalk.