Balta1701

QUOTE(Dick Allen @ Dec 26, 2006 -> 03:59 PM) Why? How much worse was he last year than Freddy Garcia? The Sox got Gio for Garcia and Floyd who people on this board think will be the 5th starter, and most think they didn't get enough. Randy Johnson makes $7 million more than Garcia next year, is more than 10 years older, is spending his offseason rehabbing from major surgery, and had an ERA of 5.00 last year (not to mention the fact that Garcia at least showed some hope with that split finger pitch down the stretch).

QUOTE(kevo880 @ Dec 26, 2006 -> 03:04 PM) I mean I completely agree that I would rather see Floyd or Haeger, I'm just saying if Danks drastically outplays them I'd rather go with the kid with the hot hand then have to choose between two pitchers that are struggling and will cause a number a pitchers to test out the #5 spot throughout the season. Even if they're struggling and Danks is lights out, I still want Danks in AAA for the better part of the year. That's all I'm saying. I would rather have those guys struggle in the 5th starter spot and have Danks have another year to grow up than I would have Danks come up early in the year.

QUOTE(Heads22 @ Dec 26, 2006 -> 02:54 PM) I think it's between Gavin and Chuck. I would be very unhappy if we saw anyone other than those 2 in the 5th starter spot much before the trade deadline. QUOTE(kevo880 @ Dec 26, 2006 -> 02:56 PM) I agree, rushing them could definitely hurt their future. The only one out of those three I would consider is Danks. He appears to be the most major league ready and I would only have him in the majors if he did considerably better than any of the other potential #5 starters. While were talking about our young pitching. The AAA starting rotation is going to be sick this year. Even if he did significantly better than them in ST, he's still one of the youngest guys up at the AAA level, he hasn't had more than a handful of AAA games, and he's still only had just over a season at AA or above. I want him to stew in AAA for at least a few months. I'd prefer the full year, and a callup in September if he has a good year. The last thing we want is for him to come up, get blown out a couple times or struggle with something and wind up starting to screw with his mechanics, overthrow the ball, or stop trusting his stuff. If he's dominating and someone offers us something damn useful for Buehrle at the trade deadline, ok, maybe I could live with it, but that's the only way I want to see him.

QUOTE(kevo880 @ Dec 26, 2006 -> 02:45 PM) If no one steps up in ST then I think Haeger wins it by default. I would love to see him in the rotation, but I have the feeling one of Floyd or Danks will really impress and win the job. It would be really interesting to see a promising young knuckleballer starting for the sox. I can't be the only one here who doesn't want to see Danks in the rotation at all in 2007. The 3 guys I don't want to see are: Gio, Danks, then Broadway (wanting to see Gio up the least). We just spent a lot in terms of talent in order to bring these people in to be the future. Risking the future by bringing these guys to the big leagues too fast to try to save the present is not, to my eyes, a good strategy. Even if those guys impress in ST, at least let them start the season at AAA. Don't rush them, there's no reason to do that, not for a 5th starter slot.

QUOTE(RME JICO @ Dec 26, 2006 -> 02:34 PM) That is really interesting, I wonder what it was for 2005? Do you have those stats available? If it even comes close to correlating, that would be fascinating. In 2005 the correlation doesn't hold as well, but the differences in the bullpens were less extreme. The #1, #3, and #4 bullpens in MLB in ERA were from the AL Central: Cleveland, Minny, and Chicago (AL), with St. Louis sitting at #2 (in the weaker NL). Detroit sat at #11, and K.C. sat at #22. So the top of baseball was bunched up with the top 3 teams in the AL Central, and then other factors were able to come into play (the starting pitching of the White Sox, the lack of offense of Minnesota). In 2004, the best bullpen in the AL Central was Minnesota, who came in at #11 in MLB. The 2nd best bullpen was the White Sox at #20. K.C. sat at 22, Cleveland and Detroit sitting at 26 and 27. So the top 2 bullpens in the Central were the top 2 teams that year as well. I think the simple fact is, if you put together a good bullpen, it can carry a team to the playoffs and cover up for some weaknesses. If you have no starting pitching at all it can't do it, and if you have no offense at all it can't do it, but it certainly can be a gigantic factor.

According to KFMB in San Diego, Chad Tracy is involved in the trade talks.

Iraqi President Jalal Talabani (Kurdish) has openly protested the U.S. arrests and says the Iranians were there at his invitation.

The Angels signed malcontent 1b Shea Hillenbrand. On paper, this is an excellent signing for the Halos. They potentially clog their gaping hole at 1b and don't have to rely on some combination of Kotchman/McPherson/Morales to step up and fill that hole. And Hillenbrand provided 21 home runs and a .280 average last year between the Blue Jays and the Gians, and was hitting over .300 before running into problems in Toronto. On the other hand, the Angels haven't always been the best place for people with an attitude. Scioscia is only going to take so much from these guys, and the Angels already have the example of shutting down Jose Guillen and letting him go during the playoffs in 04 right when the Angels needed that bat the most.

The NY Times runs an entire article on a statement by Mr. Bush that he read a newspaper article.

At least the ESPN folks/fools are floating the idea that dealing Johnson could also be associated with an attempt by the Yankees to move themselves into the Barry Zito sweepstakes. Given that they basically can print money in the Bronx and will have a beautiful new stadium before any Zito contract hits its last few years, that might be a very sensible move for the Yankees.

QUOTE(southsider2k5 @ Dec 26, 2006 -> 12:01 PM) There are two sides to that coin though. The flip side of artificially higher wages are many fold... Higher wages mean higher prices, less total employment, less effecient companies, just to name a few things. How do any of those things benefit American citizens? T Well, here's the 3rd side to that coin (this is going to turn into a pretty wierd shape when you reply to it), the employment situation is not necessarily a simple economic system. In a purely simple system, yes, if you increase wages artificially, you will reduce employment. However, that neglects the potential feedbacks; because you've increased wages, you may also force a company to distribute its profits in some small extent to people who will actually spend the money, and thus you may drive up the demand for goods and services and in fact provide an economic stimulus. As far as the evidence I've seen goes, raising the minimum wage is in fact a mixed bag when it comes to employment percentages. There were several minimum wage increases in the 90's, and during the late 90's, the employment situation improved vastly, to the point that if there was a negative impact due to the minimum wage increase, it was swamped out by everything else that was happening in the economy. On the state level, the data is also at least to some extent mixed...Oregon pushed its minimum wage through the roof ($7.50) about 4 years ago, to predictions of economic ruin, and the state is seeing very strong growth now in employment, so much so that they're about to increase the minimum wage again (just grabbed that one because it's recent, as I said, there is a lot of data out there on both sides) Naturally, like any multivariate system, if you push one variable too far, you're going to cause problems. If you push up a minimum wage too far, say a $25 an hour wage right now, yes, you will murder employers. And yes, there are always specific parts of society that are affected by any decision like this; you can always point to some portion of farm labor or teenage-employment and say yes, those types can be specifically hurt by a minimum wage increase, but with the feedbacks in the system, it can and in fact is a much more mixed story than the simple model of "wages go up, prices go up, sales go down, unemployment goes up".

So, since this discussion has moved heavily onto the "does this make us better next year" question, or more to the point "do all of Kenny's moves together make us better", I'm going to call on something I just posted in the "Would you trade MMac for a bat" thread: In the AL Central last year, the quality of the bullpens was 100% proportional to how the teams finished. Just from ranking bullpen ERA's, the ranking last year was Twins, Tigers, White Sox, Indians, Royals, exactly the same as the final rankings in the division. So, yes, we have not upgraded the offense, and it's quite likely the offense will take a downgrade. Yes, we have not upgraded the starting rotation significantly, although it could and should be a lot better just from nearly standing pat with these guys. But if we take a look at the bullpen, just before ST Last year, we were looking at Jenks, Hermanson, Politte, Cotts, ???? (Became Logan), and McCarthy. Coming into this season, we're looking at Jenks, Thor, MMac, Masset, Aardsma, and Logan/Sisco. Now, some of those guys are pretty young, so they may struggle. And there's injury risk. And regression. But in terms of raw firepower, there is a MASSIVE upgrade there. By my count, every single guy in that list except for Logan is supposed to be able to throw 95+. Last year, we had 1 guy coming into ST who could throw 95+. This bullpen has it in itself to be good enough to carry this team even if the starters struggle. The bullpen has to stay healthy and perform to do it, but we at least have the horses out there to do it. This bullpen has the ability to upgrade from being in the 20's to being at or near the top of the MLB, and that would win us a ton of games even if everything else stepped back. Its what won the division for Minny last year, IMO, and I think Kenny sees that too

QUOTE(rcpweiner @ Dec 26, 2006 -> 11:55 AM) What about this: What if Contreras is still on the DL, and Buehrle and Garland get into a street fight with some Cubs fans who called their mom fat or something, and Vazquez visits Super K-Mart and gets lost in their many aisles (forcing him to miss most of the season)? Then we have a rotation of: Haeger Floyd Danks Gonzalez Sisco (?) Ugh. That is going to be one rough year. Why doesn't Kenny plan for this?!?!?!?! WaaaaahhhhhhhH!!!!!! Hell, in the event of 4 starting pitchers going down, I think we're probably in better shape than just about anyone in baseball.

QUOTE(southsider2k5 @ Dec 26, 2006 -> 05:20 AM) Ah yes, the read and insert words here.... I have never, and will never, be in favor of artificial wage rates. The market will support, what the market can support. Everytime the government screws with things, they get messed because there are unintened consequences that come from moving wages away from their equalibrium point, which often makes things worse than if they had just left things alone. Here's one of those places where you and I are going to fundamentally disagree. The problem I see is that the market will support things that are actually worse for people than they should be, because the market is an abstract thing. The market has a different goal from what the government does; the market's goal is to turn a profit. The government on the other hand has the goal of, or at least should have the goal of doing what is best for the American people. Luckily for us, in a decent number of cases, those 2 goals line up. But in this case, I contend that they simply do not, and the American people and the American system are better off if there is some sort of wage floor.

QUOTE(shipps @ Dec 26, 2006 -> 04:33 AM) I cant really put my finger on it as to why,but i truly dislike Romo.He seems like such an ass.Maybe because the media has christened him as the next Troy Aikman and he has only won 6 games.He really has believed the hype about himself too. I think you're right on both aspects. He believed the hype on himself, and still does, and it's hurting the team. There's no reason for a quasi-rookie QB to be hanging around with Carrie Underwood and other nearly-washed-up celebrities before a big football game, especially when he hasn't been playing well recently. Focus on the damn game kid. That team has gone from being thrilled to being on the verge of tearing itself apart in all of 3 weeks or so. Both Owens and Glenn are complaining this morning. Its looking ugly for them.

QUOTE(EvilJester99 @ Dec 26, 2006 -> 11:34 AM) If the Yanks are seriously looking to trim some payroll, maybe they will be still looking to dump A Rod as well.... If the Yankees do trade Johnson, I seriously doubt they are doing it to trim payroll (hell they'd probably be paying half or more of his deal anyway just to move him). If they do it, they're doing it because they have Philip Hughes and Humberto Sanchez, both of whom are probably ready to step into their rotation, and at least one of which (Hughes) looks to be incredibly good. Right now their rotation is Mussina, Wang, Johnson, Pettitte, Hughes, Sanchez, Pavano (if he's even alive any more). They have 6 pitchers, 7 if you count Pavano. That leaves them some room to deal, and if they want Hughes in their rotation this year (Which they're crazy if they don't), then Johnson is probably the one they'd like to move the most.

It depends on the hitter. I mean, if the offer was MMac for Carl Crawford, can anyone here honestly say they wouldn't JUMP at that in a second? You'd be crazy not to. But, in a deal that would strike most outside observers as a "Fair" deal, MMac for a medium-quality, probably not an all-star type bat, then it wouldn't be a smart move. One interesting thing about the AL Central last year was that it was entirely an exercise in bullpen quality in determining how teams finished up. The best bullpen in the AL Central, and MLB? The Twins. And the quality of that bullpen was so high that it was to some extent able to cover for weakness in their rotation, with injuries to Radke and Liriano, a ton of rookies, and a bad season by Silva. The 2nd best bullpen in the AL Central? The Tigers. 4th in MLB. And guess what, they finished 2nd. The 3rd best bullpen in the AL Central? The Chicago White Sox. Down in the 20's in ERA, only slightly better than Cleveland. Ton of saves though, and a much better overall record than the Tribe. And they finished 3rd. The 4th best bullpen in the AL Central? The Cleveland indians. A disaster area for most of the year. Fewest saves in baseball by a lot. Awful record. The 5th best bullpen in the AL Central? The KC Royals. Worst bullpen ERA in baseball. Does that ranking remind you of any other end-of-season ranking that you may have seen? The quality of bullpens in the AL Central was 100% directly correlated with the performance of each team last season. That tells me something.

I can think of no circumstance where I'd be willing to give up both a player from our team/system and $10-$16 million next year (depending on what the Yankees throw in) to get Randy Johnson. I think he's currently worth neither the money he's being paid nor the talent it would take to get him, and I really don't care what that talent is. I wouldn't want to deal Jacob Rasner for Johnson at this point.

BMac is a gem the White Sox found in the 19th round of the draft a few years back. BMac features 4 pitches, a low 90's fastball, big sweeping curve ball, a 2 seam fastball he was working on last year, and a circle change, which, if it is working, is by far his best pitch. BMac has a good health history so far, but does have a bit of a long, lanky frame. It gives him a good chance to have an excellent 2 seamer, because he can really get on top of it well, but it also has had everyone here cheering every offseason when a report comes through of him adding on 10 pounds. BMac is a very smart pitcher, and knows very well how to work hitters. This is probably his biggest asset to my eyes, he does an excellent job of keeping people off balance, working inside and outside, setting hitters up and putting them away. His changeup is his key pitch. His fastball is ok, but on its own it won't beat anyone. His curveball can work really well, but I think it's been his most inconsistent pitch as well, sometimes he just doesn't get the big break it needs to be effective. His changeup though, if he's throwing strikes, is just murder. It starts off looking like a fastball coming out of a very quick delivery, but then just buries itself down and in to lefties or down and away from righties. On a good day it can break as much as his curve ball, it's a beautiful pitch when it's working. Brandon has the potential in him to be a #1 starter for some team if evertyhing works out. The concern with Brandon is last season; Ozzie and KW spent the season dicking around with BMac in the bullpen, so he was not able to get nearly as many innings as he should, and their use of him was very inconsistent, so he struggled to get into a rhythm. Down the stretch in 2005 though he was absolutely dominant. Shut down Texas and Boston in 2 straight games for 15 scoreless innings, went pitch for pitch with Johan Santana for 8 innings, and was a real key to the Sox finishing out the regular season. The Bottom for BMac if he's healthy is going to be a solid #3 starter who can eat a lot of innings, and the sky is probably the limit beyond that.

Juan Rivera broke his left leg while playing winterball. He's being flown back to Miami for further examination. It may have just become even more important for the Angels to try to find another bat. Just by hitting a little bit, Rivera was a lifesaver for the Angels last year. They still desperately need someone to hit behind Vlad, and this could set them back even more in that department.

QUOTE(Jordan4life_2006 @ Dec 24, 2006 -> 09:27 PM) So if Danks or Masset had pitched a couple of good games against major league competition the trade would be OK? That's essentially what Brandon has done to this point. The only Brandon people want to remember is the back-to-back gems he threw against Texas and Boston in 2005. And the game where he went pitch for pitch with Johan for 8 innings.

Foulke the Indians. Joins Borowski and Roberto Hernandez in Cleveland's attempt to gather up every ex-Chicago Closer they can find. Aaron Fultz also joined their bullpen earlier this offseason, so that's 4 new relievers Cleveland has picked up, and they're almost guaranteed to be better than the guys Cleveland had in their pen last year, mainly because a few trained chimps probably could have improved their bullpen last year. Jeff Suppan signed a 4 year, $42 million deal with the Brewers. Man, this market, I mean, this market (shakes head).

QUOTE(Heads22 @ Dec 24, 2006 -> 08:39 PM) I'm just miffed why people think he is for-sure a 15-18 game winner... Just from watching him pitch. That's what made me like him so much...watching him totally outgun the people he was pitching against.

QUOTE(Heads22 @ Dec 24, 2006 -> 08:21 PM) People are doing a ridiculous amount of defending a guy who has yet to pitch more than half a season as a starter in the majors. He could be good. He could break down. How will he react to 200+ innings? Can he make it? We keep going back & forth on this deal, but the counter-point to that is to say the exact same thing about Danks. As far as I can tell, Danks has never pitched over 155 innings in a season. He could be a concern just as much...ya never know.

Man, Uribe needs to stay off the clear. They're testing for that stuff now.