Balta1701

1. As of right now, I think the White Sox got more value for Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly than they got for Cease. They got more potential and far-away depth for Cease, so this could turn around if their development guys are good, but the Lynn return is way closer to the big leagues and there's a lot of value in that. The market was absolutely better in July last year than what this trade returned. 2. The other part is what you expect from Dylan Cease. If Dylan Cease has an ERA of 2.2 for the Padres in July, and they're out of the race at the time, the Padres will get more trading Cease than they gave up now. If Dylan Cease has an ERA of 4.1 in July, then this would be a high value trade for him. Cease's 2023 dramatically reduced his value, and the White Sox weren't willing to risk another bad season against the value of a reward. The Padres were.

Your argument is way too close to Keith Law hates the White Sox. You have rejected his analysis to say that this guy is a hard worker because you don't like Keith Law. Bull.

I'd call that Karma for Santos.

I get it, a B- is fine. They got depth and the key 2 guys are A-ball players so there's some ceiling available. Cease wasn't good last year and wasn't worth all that much. B- is an acceptance of this being the best you could do with how bad Cease was last year and his unreliable career.

Keith Law literally said Zavala looks uninterested and sloppy.

I don't think Thorpe is that safe at all. What do you consider safe, a #3/#4 innings eater? Thorpe may have a good shot at that, he threw 140 innings last year, that's fine. With that fastball you can't say he's safely an upper part of the rotation starter until he actually turns into one. But if he comes up and his control and off speed stuff doesn't play against big league hitters, his ceiling is out of the league in a couple years. How is a guy who is throwing under 90 in spring training safe?

Neither does Kopech's control, but I didn't bring it up.

HEre's Santana's 17 strikeout game, I saw 5 on fastballs. They were all between 92-95, with only 1 at 95. But yes, 93 in 2005 is 96 now.

You'd think after Dylan Cease dropped from an ERA of 2 to an ERA of 4.5 when his fastball dropped by less than 1 mph that Soxtalk would understand the importance of every single mph of one's fastball, but nah, Soxtalk says give me the guy who can't bring that fastball. Equal and fair, right?

Projecting what they will look like at the trade deadline depends on 2 things: 1. Development. If Eder has an ERA of 6 and a couple guys get hurt, this system is way worse. If Gonzalez makes no progress, they look a lot worse. If Schultz's arm limits him, they look way worse. If Montgomery has any injuries this year or looks like he did at AA last year, they look way worse. 2. MLB player accomplishments. As of right now they have 1 tradable piece in Robert. If Robert gets hurt, as he has each of the last 3 years, they have no major trade pieces. It is possible that someone like Fedde could turn into one, but I would not say at all they "Should be top 10". 3. Who is called up early in the year? the last GM loved rushing guys and turning them into bullpen guys. Will this GM? If Nastrini is in the big leagues, or Thorpe is in the big leagues, this also affects system rankings. They're going to add a draft pick who should slot into the back half of the top 100, but it's not a #1 pick. One or two injuries makes things look worse.

yeah, they took less overall because they wanted whatever pitching they could get.

I'm not able to judge his pluses or minuses based on his performance in the Yankees A-ball team, that's just too much of a stretch either way. What we have now is solid stats and peripherals, but clearly with a questionable fastball. How that translates is a big question, you could have a #2 guy or you could have a #6 guy. Garland could ramp his 4 seamer up to the mid 90s. He just didn't pitch that way, he threw a low 90s sinker as his main pitch, aside from one fairly important game.

It SURE feels like this was a deal you only make if the #1 thing you care about is ensuring pitching comes back.

There are currently 0 A voters to hear from. For reference I was in with C. Better than I thought it would be at this time but unimpressive compared to holding him.

I have no choice but to give him a chance because there's nothing I can do to change things, but the way things went down justifies skepticism until there is a substantial amount of evidence that I shouldn't be.

I fully agree. I wanted him fired after 2013. That doesn't mean I automatically give credit to and express confidence in his replacement.

It will take a lot of successful development for this to actually make the White Sox improve. Hard to insist that they just got better today. They did get deeper.

At least now we can say that Law hates the White Sox again.

"I've got no problem with our development" is a statement about the White Sox that is going to make me go grab the next whiskey. Mostly, you're talking about Hahn's work there, and that is some of the worst development possible. They took a clear loaded #1 system and turned it into a playoff appearance. The system produced 1 playoff appearance, broke down, then 2 years later produced a 61 win roster. It is hard to imagine worse development. The hope is that the guys who were just hired will be a significant improvement, particularly on the pitching front. But so far, this is totally hope. They could be the best ever, but skepticism is warranted.

I don't have access to the pay stuff but found this from a year ago.

There's my problem. They are absolutely going all in on "we can develop all these guys into way more than they're worth right now". If 2 years from now they were wrong, this team looks like the 2020 Royals, 4th place, not all that good, and future 5th place finished coming, but likely with the same guys leading the way.

If they're wrong do they get fired?

This is more an expression of their inability to find the kind of elite guys they gathered up during the last rebuild than it is a strong supporting statement for these guys. Perhaps this works better, but this statement illustrates how they are trying to rebuild based on depth alone. It's at least different from Hahn, but not obviously better? And elite numbers without elite velocity is a harder thing to say will translate. Sometimes it's Buehrle, often it isn't.

My guess based on last year was that teams would be more willing to give up those prospects if they were sitting in a playoff spot in July and Cease was sitting there with a 2.85 ERA.

Hell, from that point they added 2 more top 5 picks and a top 15 pick before their first playoff appearance.