Balta1701

QUOTE(southsider2k5 @ Nov 28, 2005 -> 09:42 AM) I just want to speak to this part of the post. There is one better, but obviously not perfect, way of measuring underemployment IMO, and that is to use the average hourly wage numbers that get put out. Interestingly enough those have been steadily increasing over the years, and I can't figure out why. We always read about layoffs from high paying jobs, but this number never really goes down, and I have not been able to figure out why. I don't know if it is just we always hear about the layoffs and assume that all high paying jobs are gone, or if there really is high wage job creation going on, but just in different fields from where people are getting laid off of, and we never hear about that either. Then again it could be all statistical manipulation as well, and we would never really hear about that either. However, it is worth specifically noting that the average hourly wage has been, in particular in recent months, increasing at or below the rate of inflation in this country. Therefore, in terms of net purchasing power, it actually is going down relative to the costs of goods.

QUOTE(southsider2k5 @ Nov 28, 2005 -> 05:10 AM) I knew something like this was going to happen sooner or later. With all of the kidnapping, torture, and murder of the contractors, it was only a matter of time. Chicken and the egg problem. Which came first, the murder of the contractors by the Iraqis, or the torture and murder of the Iraqis by the contractors? There have been reports of torture and murder by those "above the law" private security forces and contractors in Iraq almost since the beginning...we know, for example, that they were heavily involved in the Abu Ghraib mess...and there were reports of quite a few actions against the people in Fallujah by the private contractors before the infamous 4 bodies were strung up from the bridge? None of these of course have been confirmed by reliable sources, but that's in large part because the military doesn't report on or monitor the actions of most of those contractors - we don't even know how many of them are killed, despite the fact that by numbers, they make up something like 20% of hte U.S. forces in Iraq.

QUOTE(southsider2k5 @ Nov 28, 2005 -> 09:38 AM) Its done here everyday. I just found an irony in blowing off that particular statement for that exact reason. Well, the reason I would do it specifically with that statement by Allawi is actually slightly more complicated than just the ol' "He's a politician". He's a politician campaigning for an election only a few weeks away trying to reach out to a specific constituency. Allawi is a Shiite, but he's not part of SCIRI, the main ruling party among the Shiites which currently has Jafaari as the PM. SCIRI has a power base among the Shia. Allawi is a Shiite, but he's from a party less openly religious than Jafaari. However, most of the Shia voted for SCIRI last time, and they're likely to do so again even with Allawi's party being better organized. This means that if Allawi wants to expand his power base, he needs to look elsewhere. Where is another untapped source of votes in Iraq? The Sunni population. They basically didn't vote in the first parliamentary campaign, so their strength is basically unknown. However, we know for a fact that the Sunni strength isn't enough to break the Shia majority in the electorate. So, we have both Allawi and the Sunnis not having enough strength to overturn SCIRI. However, if Allawi could convince the Sunni population that he's not their enemy, and they'd stand a better chance with him than they would with SCIRI...then he might have a shot, if he were to combine votes from the less-religious and less Pro Iran Shia with a large number of Sunni votes. How would he go about reaching out to the Sunni population? Well, that's a population that's been repeatedly driven from its cities, that's probably had a member or two of every single family detained or disappeared by the government, and that's suffered significant torture at the hands of the ruling party. Furthermore, the Sunnis were largely spared the direct torture, gassings, etc. that Saddam gave to the Shia. Therefore, by saying things like this, Allawi is playing up their situation in an effort to secure some of their support. He has a motive to exaggerate and the opportunity. Therefore, in this particular case, I judge his words to be those of a politician campaigning, and not necessarily an honest assessment of the conditions in Iraq (although they may very well be one). As with almost anything, it's hard to find a firm rule, and each statement should be evaluated on a case-by-case basis. In this case, I would judge Allawi to be speaking as a candidate reaching out to a constituency, such as Bush when he made his "Guest worker proposal" in January of 04.

There are still basically zero rumors out here on the west coast about Anaheim having offered Konerko anything substantial other than some brief talk about a 4 year, $40 million offer a few weeks ago. So if the Angels have made a big push...no one out here knows anything about it...and I find it really odd that the Chicago people would know more about offers from Anaheim to PK than the media in LA. If KW was serious when he said he wanted this to be over by the end of the winter meetings...it's officially crunch time now though. Oh, and I believe that the Chipper Jones restructuring was good for both Chipper and the team...Chipper would take less money per year, but in exchange he'd get an option year turned into a guaranteed year at a lower price, and since Atlanta almost certainly would not have picked up the option...he gets extra money that way.

QUOTE(Steve Bartman's my idol @ Nov 28, 2005 -> 07:09 AM) With re. Steinbrenner...you have to give the guy credit. He spends to give his team it's best chance of winning. Obviously the results haven't been so great over the past few years, but, as an owner, I can't see how you could find anyone better. He wants to win, and backs up his desire with $$$! On the other hand...while Big Stein is willing to spend money...he's also willing to spend money on wildly insane deals, and he's also willing to go around his own management. The best example in recent years would be the fact that the Yankees Execs wanted to make a hard run at Vlad Guerrero, but big stein had his heart set on Sheffield. They grabbed Sheff. While in the short term that deal may have been a wash...Sheff is still a lot older, and will be gone from NY fairly soon. There's also the issue that maybe his willingness to spend money actually can wind up hurting the team - it gives them room to just go and grab anyone no matter their cost, such as Randy Johnson or Kevin Brown - guys with big deals who are on the back sides of their careers. They end up depleting their minor leagues to do it, and then all of a sudden, their team is old, creaky, breaking down, and limps into the playoffs every year. Money in baseball can be a blessing and a curse.

QUOTE(YASNY @ Nov 28, 2005 -> 01:45 AM) I don't see where Gload fits on this team. Hell, he didn't fit last year when we didn't have Thome. Edit to add: This is assuming we retain Konerko. Your edit is the real key part. Sans Paulie...we may not have a better option.

QUOTE(southsider2k5 @ Nov 28, 2005 -> 05:39 AM) That's kinda my point. You can't just dismiss one politician's words off hand as politicing, but then invest in the words of another one. Its kinda silly. Can we apply that same standard to all of Bush's rosy assessments of Iraq?

QUOTE(spiderman @ Nov 28, 2005 -> 07:46 AM) If you look at the actual numbers, you'd see the economy is actually performing well (not great) and unemployment is very low right now - if it was this low during Clinton's years, you'd probably be bragging about it. I do agree that this adminstration needs to cut back on it's spending. I've made this point before, and I'll make it again...it is absolutely useless to compare the "Unemployment" numbers published by the government between even the early years of an administration and the later years of that same administration. This goes for Clinton, Bush 1, Bush 2, etc. Why? Because the "Unemployment" numbers published by the government don't really measure the number of people out of work. They measure a certain subset of that group; the unemployment percentage numbers specifically exclude the long-term unemployed (people who haven't been able to find work for many months), those on any sort of disability or government assistance, or those who are getting any sort of education (i.e. you lose your job and go back to school). All of these groups have significantly inflated under both Clinton and Bush 2, which has allowed both administrations to claim that the unemployment percentages say that either the economy is doing great or is really not that bad...when in reality all they've done is exclude enough people from the count so as to make it look better. Furthermore, there is no way to gauge the percentage of "Under-employment" in this country either - people with high level degrees stuck working at WalMart, that sort of thing, which can be just as much a drag on the economy as the former.

QUOTE(chitownsportsfan @ Nov 27, 2005 -> 05:59 PM) Timo and Gload gone? Hells yea, sounds like a plan to me. Gload does nothing above average, and for his position, he's a terrible run producer. Timo's shortcomings have been well documented, and we have other guys (Willie or Ozona) that can fill the role of versatile speedster off the bench. I fully agree on Timo...but have we really seen enough of Gload as a starter in the big leagues to say for certain that he does "Nothing" above average? I mean, he at least was rookie of the month 1 time, and he did hit over .300 in his only long stint in the big leagues, and he supposedly is capable of playing very good defense.

Well...eventually you see things so totally expected and yet simultaneously so damn sadistic that even when video surfaces, you just really hope it's not true. Yes....that's right...they have Elvis as a theme song.

QUOTE(witesoxfan @ Nov 27, 2005 -> 05:31 PM) I lied a little bit then. They still had huge payrolls and were losing like crazy though too, as qwerty pointed out. You can also look at the Dodgers as a team with a huge payroll from a couple years back that ended up losing quite a bit. I tend to think it was 02 or 03 where they spent in the upwards of $100 mill or so and were pretty bad. And the Cubs haven't been awesome the past couple years with huge payrolls either. 2003 they were pretty good, but they went into the crapper pretty quickly. 4 letters. AROD.

When the police busted into the room during his 96 conviction...the first thing he said was "Can I tell you who I am?" I actually watched Gameday this morning (usually I'm grocery shopping before football games start), and I thought he seemed more glazed over than usual. Now I know why.

Just remember...Allawi is in campaign mode...and he's campaigning against the party he's aiming at here. Just because he says it doesn't mean it's totally true.

QUOTE(Texsox @ Nov 27, 2005 -> 09:09 PM) OK, I'll buy it's a stimulus. But who will be paying back the debt plus interest?

QUOTE(sox4lifeinPA @ Nov 27, 2005 -> 12:45 PM) best thread ever, btw. The Rally Crede is angered by your misunderestimation of his thread.

QUOTE(Jordan4life_2005 @ Nov 27, 2005 -> 01:55 PM) Something really bad must've happened in the last month since we won it all. Because I saw ZERO signs of a bad back from Crede in the post-season. On the other hand...go look at his numbers from August...he was first diagnosed in July, and in August he had an OPS of .320 or so. We don't know whether or not his back will heal...we don't know whether or not it might get worse, we don't know at what point the pain hurts his swing (and we don't know if the pain ever helps his swing by forcing him to keep his shoulder closed)

QUOTE(SSH2005 @ Nov 27, 2005 -> 08:11 AM) http://www.twincities.com/mld/twincities/n...ts/13264463.htm Are the Cardinals really stupid enough to pay Jacque Jones almost $7 million a year? I'd rather spend the extra $10 million for Brian Giles. This makes Jermaine Dye's contract ($4 mill in 2005, $5 mill in 2006, $6 mill team option for 2007) look awesome. That's one of the amazing things about a year like this one...aside from Giles, who else is out there who can play the outfield and produce at all? Once you get past Giles, there's not that much out there (which may be why, btw, the Phillies decided they could use a good defensive CF in a trade). Yes it makes Dye's contract look awesome...but think about the other deals we've seen this year...Matsui's deal, BJ Ryan's deal, the 2 relievers the Cubs signed - all of them cost more than they were worth. This year, attendence was up again, teams have money to spend, but there's not many players out there at the mid-cost level that teams can buy. So you end up with teams overspending on those mid-level guys, who last year were far more abundant. Let's just hope it doesn't translate to the top FA on the market as well.

QUOTE(YASNY @ Nov 27, 2005 -> 02:19 AM) Have you noticed the detail kenny goes into now to 'check out' a guy's clubhouse demeanor before he acquires him? Pierzynski basically had to talk Kenny into signing him by convincing him the 'clubhouse cancer' label tagged on him was hogwash. That Clayton trade may have been what laid the foundation for Kenny putting so much emphasis on 'quality' people in the clubhouse. Don't forget David Wells's signing that same year.

QUOTE(mmmmmbeeer @ Nov 26, 2005 -> 10:09 AM) i'd imagine that some clutch pitching in the 13th and 14th innings of a world series game could do wonders for his confidence. Marte, who i had declared upon his entry in the game that he would get the (L), was REALLY impressive in that game and showed some balls. I think he's going to get back on track next season. With that said, if there's a deal out there for an impact player I'd deem Marte expendable and just go with 1 lhp, Cotts, in the 2006 Sox pen. I still don't think Marte's problem last year was one of confidence...I think it was one of mechanics. When Damaso Marte gets his delivery right...he has a very long follow through...and it helps him spot almost all of his pitches. When you see him start to short arm his delivery, he tends to lose both control of his pitches and velocity on his fastball. I think he tends to start changing his delivery when his arm starts to hurt, as we know was happening to him last year. But even last year, the times he'd come out and follow through, he'd throw strikes and still be unhittable. It's some combination of mechanics and injuries that have given him problems, IMO. Yeah, he probably lost confidence at some point, but he lost confidence because his delivery screwed up.

If somehow we lost PK, I really dont' see us having a good backup plan. I would quite literally expect us to see Ross Gload get a chance at 1b...maybe Dye also with another of the young guys (Young?) getting a shot in the OF. I can't imagine KW would sign another outfielder as a response to PK leaving...Ozzie would probably give Dye a chance to prove himself there in a few games and try to throw some youth in the OF. Personally...I just can't see Thome staying healhty the full year if he has to play the field 120 games, given that he's already working with a surgically repaired elbow that he hurt while fielding.

QUOTE(TLAK @ Nov 27, 2005 -> 02:30 PM) Any comments on my thought that Timo and Ross Gload are gone, while Willie and JoBo stay? I thought the screen would burst into flames when you guys read that. I like it. I hate the idea of Timo Perez staying on this team, just because Ozzie will continue to give him playing time he doesn't deserve if he's on the roster. He's more expensive than JoBo since we already paid the Human Borch's signing bonus, and at least if Borchard hits .218, He'll hit a few of them out of the ballpark. He simply can't be worse than Timo, and if somehow he starts putting up numbers like he did in the 2nd half last year at AAA, he could maybe rebuild some of that trade value we all wish he had. And with Thome on this team...if PK is signed, we have 2 guys who can play 1b. Thome should only play there sparingly yes, but he can give PK a rest some days, which is something we didn't have at all last year until we traded for Blum (remember the day Timo started at 1b?) Therefore, if PK is signed, there is no good reason for Gload to be on our 25 man roster - that would be 3 guys who's job is to play 1b or DH, which IMO is too many, especially when we have a 3b with a back problem. Edit...hmph...7000 posts. Yay.

QUOTE(witesoxfan @ Nov 27, 2005 -> 01:20 PM) And the Indians had success with him hitting in the middle of their order during the late 90s. Also, teams like the Rangers and Mets still have payrolls well up over $100 mill and finish in the middle of the division. Manny was the biggest bat in the Boston lineup and was the most valuable bat, due to his protection of Ortiz in the lineup and his numbers alone. According to This page, the Rangers Payroll last year was roughly $56 million at the start of the season.

QUOTE(TheBigHurt @ Nov 27, 2005 -> 02:52 PM) I really hope he gets really good. Could you imagine a knuckleballer on the White Sox? When was the last time we saw that? Hell, have we ever seen it? I'm not sure. Charlie Hough. Pitched for us 91-92.

Link

Since this thread was about whether or not this year's gas prices might hurt the Christmas season...I think the First bits of data may be relevant. Black Friday was slightly down this year despite higher discounts. WalMart discounted more this year than last, so it's not surprising that they were up. It is worrisome that even with an increase at Walmart, the rest of the stores were down overall.