Balta1701

There is a $15 million cost for “benefits” that each team incurs, in addition to some other complex rules for contracts like Robert that increase in value every year. When the White Sox started 2022 with a payroll over $190 million, they probably had about $15 million under the tax, maybe a little less. Their payroll in ‘23 started off lower and the tax line went up by $3 million, so in ‘23 they definitely had space for a big addition without coming close to the tax.

Fwiw, we actually heard the opposite. He was supposed to be a major improvement over Vaughn/Sheets and even able to back up CF. They had him play some CF at AAA in ‘22 even. There aren’t advanced fielding stats at AAA, the regular ones didn’t look great if you pushed them as hard as they could go, but we heard plenty of predictions of a major upgrade on offense and defense

Fwiw, yes, this is exactly how the Quintana deal went. I was starting to worry during the year because he started off the year poorly, even though some of his advanced stats were still good, then a huge offer came around in early July.

This is the second $20 million a year gamble that San Fran has taken on a starter this offseason. The downside is having 25% of their payroll locked up in two guys who are useless as starters, which is possible. They have historically been quite good at working with in-between cases like these and turning them into key rotation pieces, but this is more money than they have previously risked on doing that.

My point is - MHJ is, as a prospect, seemingly head and shoulders above the other wideouts. Based on everything we've read, he's set up to be like Calvin Johnson compared to the rest of the league. If you're dropping back 1 or 2 spots, don't overthink it, just take Harrison. If you drop back to pick, let's say 13, the Bears have pick 9 and pick 13. Consider a QB if one is there, but otherwise take the best talent available and recognize that you're going to have a boatload more picks available in the next couple years after the gigantic move you just made. In that case, yeah you take a WR and an Edge rusher or whatever the best setup is, and you add two first round talents, but the reason why you've passed on a generational QB and generational WR is that you got such an overwhelming package for the pick you gave up.

FWIW, I mostly disagree with this. They have a limited supply of talent, and they are going to have hard choices coming up, but they don't have to go all-in on one of them yet. Just like other teams don't have a good handle on their needs next July right now, the Orioles don't either. If they have a large lead in the AL East mid-year next year, or their pitchers stay healthy and perform, they may not need an enormous buy at the time. If someone like Cleveland or Milwaukee struggles, they may be able to buy a pitcher for a lower price. Or, they could be in a tight race and clearly in need of a TOR starter, and Cease could prove he's that guy. For Baltimore's situation, trying to trade a veteran or two but holding onto their guys tightly until they absolutely have to make a decision is a very rational path.

If they drop down 1-2 spots, there is literally only 1 player they should consider and he's a WR. If they have a shot at Daniels with the 9th pick, even jumping that up a few slots with the haul gotten for pick #1, I could buy that, but boy, if they move down to the Patriots or Commanders pick, take MHJ and don't overthink it. You are getting the clear best prospect in the draft. If you're insistent on a QB, then take a QB at number 1. If you drop down to #3, take MHJ. If you deal with the Raiders or something like that, then talk about Daniels if he's dropping, or otherwise take the best fits.

And in general, the returns for those guys were strong compared to their performance levels, weren't they?

I would question this. I would say his value is likely higher in July if he's exactly the same pitcher as last year, unless he is hurt.

One or two extra pitchers on the market doesn't likely make a difference here. How many teams will be in need of at least 1 starting pitcher? Last year, the Astros didn't obviously need another starter in July, they emptied out their minors entirely for Verlander, and they wound up moving their rookie starter to the bullpen rather than relying on him for the playoffs when he struggled down the stretch. There will be 15 to 20 teams genuinely in contention, a few teams stuck in the middle, and maybe 8 teams that think they're out of it enough to sell. Those 8 teams will be really bad teams, so they will move the pieces they have but won't have a lot to move.

To be fair, the White Sox had an almost exact issue with Giolito.

However, the supply of pitchers right now is much, much, much greater than it will be at the deadline this year. Take a look at the moves teams have made! The Braves - betting that maybe Chris Sale (and their other guys) will be healthy. The Yankees - betting that Carlos Rodon will be healthy and Stroman won't melt down in New York. The Orioles - betting that the back of their rotation is good enough. The Dodgers - betting that Glasnow stays healthy, that Yoshinobu is a $300 million pitcher, that Gonsolin stays healthy, that Buehler stays healthy. It is easy to sell yourself on the possibility of these things being true right now when the only thing it costs is money for most of them. When the deadline has come around and someone is on the 60 day IL, they won't be coming back. Think about the Dodgers last year, their entire rotation was hurt, that may happen again or it may not. For the first half of the season, you put a rotation out there and have a backup plan to get innings if guys do get hurt (FWIW Rick Hahn never understood this second part). For the 2nd half of the season or the playoffs, if your original plan works out - great! IF your plan doesn't work, that's when you pay the high price for a guy in a trade. This is the big difference.

While he would have slightly less service time than right now, historic evidence (meaning last year) also shows that it is possible for the market for starting pitching at the trade deadline to go quite out-of-whack, with way more demand than supply. Last year's deadline is a perfect example, and take a look at the White Sox. Lance Lynn was leading the league in HR given up, had 2 months of control, and was owed like $7 million for those 2 months. The Dodgers gave up their 8th best prospect for him, and took on Joe Kelly as a gamble because why not. Giolito was being inconsistent, slightly better than 2022 but you could still see the issues if you did some scouting, Lopez was generally bad to open the year in the bullpen, but the Angels gave up a top 100 prospect for him and Lopez. The Mets gave up Verlander and Scherzer and got back guys who are now their top 2 prospects, + more. Yes, they had to send along some money with them, but both were having injury issues and teams just took chances on them. If Cease struggles like he did last year, then the odds are his value isn't lower at the deadline than it is right now. He is still a strikeout pitcher with high level stuff. Teams will take a chance on the ability to fix him, figuring that the White Sox's pitching coach is trash.They might not give up the asking price right now, but his value won't go down just because of the lower service time. Cease's stuff last year was iffy, he put up an ERA of 8 in August, but was pretty good in September. There have been hints that there were mechanical issues last year, so it is possible that this is fixable also. The White Sox should have changed pitching coaches, but too late for that, so we hope for the best. If Cease is just normal next year, slightly better than his truly weak 2023, then he will go into the deadline with an ERA in the mid 3's, with 1.5 years of control, a high K rate (teams like this for the playoffs) and a salary affordable to everyone. That might well be the most valuable player to move at the deadline. The only real downside risk is injury. While this is a real concern, Dylan Cease is also a guy you might gamble on. He has been the most reliable starter in baseball starting in 2021. Maybe that just means the injury is coming, but if you're going to gamble on a guy being healthy, better to bet on Cease than on a guy like Kopech who has been a mess of injuries the last 3 years. This was all pretty obvious at the start of the offseason. Cease struggled last year, the struggles were real, and this would likely matter to teams. Plus, compared to the deadline last year, there was a lot more pitching available for teams to spend FA dollars on, so the market was much less constrained at the deadline. The White Sox didn't need to be in a rush to move him, they could hold out to see if someone really wanted him or became desperate. If no one became desperate, they can hold him to the deadline this year with hopefully limited risk. Sitting there with a high but plausible price, seeing if anyone met it, but not being surprised if no one did was always the smartest and most likely path.

Mlbtr had Stroman at $44 million so he came in like 15% under. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/2023-24-top-50-free-agents-with-predictions.html

Only 2 years though right?

Dylan Cease at the trade deadline with an ERA in the mid 3s and his K numbers would seem a lot more likely to draw a seeing return than Dylan Cease now.

What else did you expect them to do? Signing a big money free agent was a bad idea, hell that was a bad idea in '23 when Hahn did it. They tried to trade their one tradable asset but weren't willing to cut the cost on them, which is a reasonable move to me when you can at least wait to the trade deadline. What else could they have done - outbid the international guy who went to the Cubs who everyone said was a fly ball pitcher?

I am genuinely curious who is going to give Snell substantially more than this type of money at this point in the offseason. Is he willing to go a 1 year route if the Yankees sign someone else?

yeah he struggled through his first year, was mostly a runner his 2nd year, but then took a big jump in y3. That was what I was kinda hoping for from Fields this year and why his first few games going backwards was so disappointing.

If Cease is as bad in '24 as he was in '23, then the White Sox will be sitting there with a mid-rotation pitcher, likely to still eat innings, available at the trade deadline, with a low price and 1.5 years of control. That should theoretically be more valuable than either Lynn or Giolito were at the deadline last year. So - not a big drop in trade value if no one is coming close to Getz's price right now. The only downside is if he does get hurt, which - he's leading MLB in starts over the last 3 years so he's a decent bet to stay healthy for 3 months, and if he's only getting a limited offer return right now, then it's not a huge loss if he does get hurt. If the offers aren't there right now, there's a big potential advantage to holding him and a fairly low loss if everything goes bad. The balance is likely in favor of holding him if no one is desperate right now.

I read that as one part with decent MLB value in Musgrove, a guy who looked a lot like a bust or back of the bullpen reliever (Feliz), and a guy with a high ceiling but a low chance of reaching it. If we got an exactly comparable package, people would be furious with Getz.

Perhaps the most important part of this - it doesn't come close to where Josh Allen was after year 3.

This really isn't doing justice to these guys though - Michael Feliz did top out as the Astros #5 prospect according to MLB.com - in 2015. In 2016 he had dropped to their #10 prospect, in 2017 he was off their list. When Moran was traded, he started out as the Astros 25th ranked prospect in 2017 and he slotted in as the Pirates #8 prospect in 2018. Moran was absolutely not a top 100 MLB prospect in 2018 at least per MLB.com, although some of the other sites discuss him as a controversial player. Fangraphs had Moran as a 50 FV player, Musgrove as a 50 FV player, and Feliz as a 45 FV player at either the time of the trade or the time when they were last ranked, and as of that point Feliz had 2 full major league seasons in the bullpen with an ERA above 5.

10% boost for the legendary Nicky Lopez though!

I mean, CJ Stroud clearly had a lot of question marks last year, that's why he didn't go #1. He was a solid QB prospect but compared to Williams for example, the hype is night and day. Stroud was "he's got a shot to be a strong QB but we'll see". Caleb Williams was "Suck for Luck" level of hype, we've been hearing about him as the obvious #1 pick and he's been analyzed at that level for 2 years. Fields vs. Stroud I can see it being a narrow choice after Fields was pretty darn good on a team surrounded by horrible weapons in 2022. Just an example, these aren't hard to find: