Balta1701

A HUGE difference with Quintana though...when traded, Quintana was under contract and controlled for 3.5 years. That's Luis Robert's control level (as of this year's trade deadline).

Does TB have an OF prospect coming up to take his spot?

This move clears some weak spots off the Giants roster but does nothing to replace them. It does remove a guy who pitched 100 innings for them last year that they'll need to replace, but he only gave them an ERA of 4.88 so it's not like replacing those innings is hard.

Correct, and who knows if he has anything to give at all by then. Probably better odds than not that he's a complete loss for 2024, either out or ineffective.

Look like 5 posts up. They split the difference. https://www.soxtalk.com/forums/topic/116703-robbie-ray-traded-to-sfg/?do=findComment&comment=4556346

I know we had a bunch of posts today but I don't think I saw this?

This...literally does not change the Giants' cash flow in 2024 at all.

Is this a bad move for the Mariners? They turn Ray into two players that can potentially help them this year. They get back a guy in Haniger who has been a contributor for the Ms before but who wasn't any good last year, and a pitcher who was good a few years ago but not helpful last year. They took Ray's money and turned it into players who are at least on the roster this year and got out of their long-term commitment to him. The Giants get one thing out of this - the player with the highest ceiling. However, that player is coming off TJS done in early May 2023, so it's not at all difficult to see him not even pitching this year, and he's unlikely to give all that much in 2024 if he does make it back. At that level, it's like signing a guy to a 2 year, $50 million deal coming off of TJS, and giving up the other two guys on waivers. Why wouldn't you do this if you were the M's?

When your team wins 61 games, there's probably more than a few things to complain about. When your team signs the biggest FA contract in MLB history, there's probably more than a few things to be content with.

Huh?

He takes some money onto his team this year in that trade (potentially offset by money coming back from SF) but removes $25 million a year commitments in 25-26 to Ray.

Looks like Seattle is taking on $8 million this season to shed $50 million the next 2 years.

I mean...they could? If they traded down and had a couple of extra first rounders the next couple years? It worked this year.

If I were an opposing GM, I would judge that emptying the system for him right now, after his 2023, is too high of a risk. I don't know that my pitching coaches could get him back to his 2022 form. If I'm the Orioles and I give you 2 top flight prospects, and Cease gives me an xERA around 4, I've done serious damage to my contention window, I've paid a top of a rotation price for a mid-rotation guy who eats innings. However, it is entirely possible that Cease's problems last year can be solved. Maybe something physical, maybe something mechanical, not sure - things were clearly different. If I'm the Orioles in particular, I want to see Cease on the mound in April and May. If he comes out like his 2022 form, with that super effective slider, then I'll pay an even higher price then. This is possible, but very difficult to figure out what the odds of it are. Could be already fixed, he had a couple good starts in September. Could be that 2022 was a true unicorn career season and he can't get back to that. I don't know. If I were Elias, with the budget constraints it sounds like he has, I wouldn't pay up for Cease right now. I would want to see him on the mound this year.

If Jeff Luhnow were still the Astros' GM, I bet they'd be pushing this type of deal right now. Pulling off 2 top prospects who slot into their big league lineup and a little bit more minor league depth makes their run a whole lot more sustainable than it looks today.

It's tough to answer this one because his season has been so weird - those first 3 games were "deer in the headlights" bad, he looked like me out there trying to figure out how to read a defense. He hasn't been the best QB in the league the rest of the year, but he hasn't been nearly as blatantly awful as he was in those games. You can find the clips in this thread, there were so many "What are you even looking at" plays that no one could tell what was going on - he looked substantially worse than last year. Then, he snapped back the other way, and started having actually quality performances. That can't just have been "we need to make him a pocket passer" because something was clearly short-circuiting in his decision making at those times and I don't know what that was. Does that mean he could be better if he avoids a stretch like that? Does that mean he could have a longer stretch like that next year and just be completely awful? I'm not sure.

That's the problem - if you throw out his 2022, it dramatically hurts his value, he doesn't look like a Cy Young contender if he's putting up this high walk rate, a high hard-hit rate, and a slowly declining fastball and K-Rate. If teams are paying the prices people here want, they are paying it because they think they can get something closer to 2022 out of him. I don't think they will pay those prices this offseason because I think people will go this deep into his performance and be skeptical about getting 2022 out of him again until he shows that he can. It is also totally believable how he did that well in 2022, he had a dominant performance particularly with his slider. Stands out incredibly in his statistics no one could hit it, and it kept everyone off his fastball. If he can get back to that in the first half of this season, then he would absolutely justify the prices people want for him right now. His fastball velocity dropped a bit in 2023 which is concerning, but the big difference was actually in the slider itself. His slider dropped from 78 mph in 2022 to 74.8 mph in 2023 - that suggests it was a fundamentally different pitch, something about the grip or the mechanics was different and that's what hurt him. Can he get that fixed? If he can, then boom, you'll see a dominant first half from Cease again.

If the Bears do a set of evaluations and come out screaming "Take Caleb Williams this isnt' close", then the Bears should absolutely take the QB and trade Fields, hopefully getting a 2nd rounder or maybe a conditional pick out of him. If the Bears do a set of evaluations and things are close, or the Bears listen to offers and they get one that is truly a standout offer, I think that offers a pretty good path forwards. If New England was willing to do an all-in offer to get the #1 QB, where the Bears could still take MHJ and also stockpile picks, boy that's tempting. I don't know that they will, they will be figuring out their coaching situation first, but I'd definitely listen.

Comparing Dylan Cease's hard hit rate in 2023 to his career numbers is the problem - in 2022, when he was excellent, it was 31.2%. When his hard hit rate in the other years has been 40%+, it's given him an Expected ERA of around 4. if we compare that to Gerrit Cole, we see a guy with a similarly elevated K rate to Cease (although notably dropped off in 2023), but we also see a guy who for the last 5 seasons has had a walk rate of under 2.1/9 - compared to Dylan Cease's 3.84 BB/9 (career, and comparable numbers over the last 3 seasons) that's a big difference.

Which FAs have they been after? As far as what I've read, they've just been quiet. Were they in on Ohtani or something like that?

If it turns out the Yankees or Mets were desperate and make a loaded move for Cease that is way better for the White Sox than what I expect - I fully anticipate lots of people tagging me and telling me I'm wrong, and I would definitely deserve that.

But both of those guys were garbage elsewhere? Especially Giolito?

I literally say "If you can get the 2022 Cease out of him" and you insist "Balta says Cease can't rebound".

"If you think you can get the 2022 Cease out of him, then he's worth everything you trade for him and more" -Balta1701 clearly telling everyone that the 2022 Cease is gone. Somehow.

How the Hell do you get that from "If you think you can get the 2022 Cease out of him, then he's worth everything you trade for him and more"? What more can I say than this?