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Everything posted by Balta1701
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What are the Sox trying to do here, really?
Balta1701 replied to Chick Mercedes's topic in Pale Hose Talk
Actions speak louder than words. They haven’t signed any long term win now contracts. That was one of my complaints last year, if Benintendi didn’t put them over the top (with what I thought was a bad team), his contract would sting for years. They haven’t signed anyone to a market value “compete now” deal. They tried to fill their pitching staff with gambles, hoping that a couple guys will have some value, and they now have a decent number of plausible arms. They haven’t signed a single fair market value free agent reliever. The version of Rick Hahn locked in my nightmares has signed 3. They haven’t traded away anything of value to them. No prospects sent out for a mid level 35 year old veteran. They’ve probably added about $15 million and saved that much on Anderson and Bummer’s deals. In 2019 Hahn added something like $50 million to a 63 win team, had another $20 million in commitments for 2020, and gave up a couple catchers in the process. He turned all that into 0 players who lasted on the roster past 2020 and a big need for a catcher that eventually turned into a $70 million bill. This is acceptance of their situation even if they’re not broadcasting it. They are rolling a roster with the bare minimum of costs and finding guys who might benefit from playing time, but who won’t hamstring them if they stink. They are taking a year at least to develop and clear out the awful money mess from the former guy. The offseason did not have to go like this, they could have traded Quero for Perez, kept Anderson, signed Whit, kept Bummer, and signed Severino and someone else like that. Add $50 or $60 million, lose a top prospect, and set up for 90+ losses in any reasonable projection. -
What are the Sox trying to do here, really?
Balta1701 replied to Chick Mercedes's topic in Pale Hose Talk
And if we're being totally honest...how did spending like Steve Cohen work out for Steve Cohen last year? They wound up selling off their most expensive pieces and footing a large portion of the bill to bring in prospects. -
Morosi linked Whit to White Sox in Dec23
Balta1701 replied to Sleepy Harold's topic in Pale Hose Talk
I'm sure they've listened but the package for that level of control is so big that it's doubtful someone is actually willing to give up that kind of a talent haul. The number of teams that could actually afford him I can probably count on my hand, and for most of them it would be a bad move, it would completely deplete their system to pay fair price for him. That makes him nearly impossible to move unless the White Sox give him away for less than he should be worth. Would you be willing to sell Robert for way less than he might seemingly be worth in order to get something right now? Rather than a giant return maybe the Orioles gave you a package around Cowser and Kjerstad as the only top 100 prospects, plus a couple of lower ranked filler pieces - would you do that? I very likely would not do so, and selling Robert at a discount is probably the only way right not to get people actually interested since the price of 4 years of control would be so obscenely high. -
What are the Sox trying to do here, really?
Balta1701 replied to Chick Mercedes's topic in Pale Hose Talk
This offseason they had literally two options: 1. Admit their predicament, recognize that they were a complete mess and this wasn't turning around easily, and start looking towards the future. Put together a roster, but stop doing long-term damage - pick up guys who are cheap and who have a chance to be movable for something at the deadline, clear out contracts where they can be cleared out, pinch every penny and take some gambles to see if you can find any value. 2. Declare that their 101 loss team was 1 or 2 great leaders away and was competitive right now. Add a couple of $10 million players, trade for Perez, declare that this year will be breakouts for everyone and that, gosh I dunno this was Romy Gonzalez's year to be an all star and that surely this year all 5 staters would stay healthy. This is pretty much the 2023 plan just even more blatant. There's no easy way out, but at least so far they haven't acted like they're in denial about their situation. The nightmare version of Rick Hahn that poisons my sleep is still out there declaring that he's one player away and this is the time to go all in. -
Chicago isn’t going to put up the money for a second franchise. Is there a business that would do it all themselves? Would the Bears, as part of an entertainment complex?
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There were plenty of times Rick Hahn negotiated through the media. Easily the most memorable was the Machado pursuit, that was "Leak after leak after leak after leak I need to take a leak before writing after leak after leak". They could keep things quiet when they wanted, and they took things public when they thought there was some benefit. Note how Ohtani wants things quiet right now, while it seems like Getz wants everyone broadcasting how they're open for business. This isn't accidental.
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I do think that eventually we are going to see expansion, and I do expect the talk to heat up now that the Oakland and Tampa bay situations have been dealt with. Those franchises needed the threat to move in their arsenal. This is probably another reason why JR would push this now, if he waits until expansion decisions are being made, then those steps will happen before he is able to push moving - whether it's real or a negotiating tactic, he can't have Nashville get a team before he has a new stadium deal. If he turns this into the next multi-year moving Saga, then MLB won't want to do expansion until the White Sox's stadium plans are finalized (wherever they are).
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Rule 5 Draft - Sox take LHP Shane Drohan from Boston
Balta1701 replied to bmags's topic in Pale Hose Talk
Only 90 days, so he could be up and still sent back to AAA? -
Rule 5 Draft - Sox take LHP Shane Drohan from Boston
Balta1701 replied to bmags's topic in Pale Hose Talk
So Drohan has to stay on the big league roster (or IL) the whole year right? -
MLB has the right to refuse to allow a franchise to move. However, MLB has never acted on this authority. It is questionable if they'd do so, because (outside of maybe the Yankees) most owners would not be willing to set the precedent of vetoing a move, just in case they ever had to use the threat of moving to try to extract something from their home city. One of the parts of the calculation in doing this now is that if he were to decide to move, he would want to make sure he could show to other owners that the relationship with the city of Chicago had truly burned to the ground and was unsalvageable. "I talked to them for 5 years about a new stadium and they kept declining" is a part of that plan.
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The poster I was replying to was the one who said "one top 100 prospect + another piece (what I think Cease should bring)" is "dogshit". That makes Giolito's return "Worse than dogshit". I think it's curious too, but people need to put words in my mouth. It's totally fair to run with that, if people are going to put words in my mouth then I'm taking them to their conclusion. No, I don't think Baltimore is "Desperate for a cheap, high quality starter." I think they know they could use additional starting depth, but I think they also know their prospects turning into decent big leaguers gives them a much longer window where they can be competitive, and that trading away too much too early risks shortcutting their window. I think the Dodgers have always been quite prudent in who they give up, they are willing to part with pieces but not so much that it depletes their system, and if they spend on Ohtani they will know that they need to have some young talent left over to balance him out. I think the Braves are looking to add starting pitching, but they also know how valuable having starting pitching prospect depth has been over the past 3 seasons because it's why they've been able to afford the big position player contracts they signed. They also know that there's no such thing as being "unbeatable in a 5 or 7 game series", and adding a pitcher with an xERA around 4 certainly doesn't make you immediately unbeatable. These teams aren't desperate. They know their resources and needs and are being calculating.
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Because prices at the trade deadline went nuts, there was a large degree of desperation movement. Teams made moves they don't have to make now. We are at the end of the winter meetings and there has been no run on pitchers, there is 1 starter out of the top 10 or so off the board and he was a guy who had his current team say that they were keeping him which pushed the market for him. These guys will get deals, they will get their money, they will get fair deals, but the desperation of the LA teams last trade deadline is gone. The Angels overpaid, clearly, because they wanted to try to do something while they had Ohtani. The Dodgers overpaid for Lynn and Kelly because they desperately needed pitching, any pitching at all, and they were willing to move a guy outside of their top prospects to make it happen. The Mets took advantage of this market too, shedding some of their big contracts and bringing back real prospects despite big contracts. These teams will bring in pitchers this offseason, but the desperation is gone.
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No, he said I think "pitchers are going for absolute dogshit". I've said repeatedly that Cease should bring back 1 top 100 prospect and another piece to go with him. This is dramatically less than the monster packages people think he should return of 2 top 100 prospects + more, so they can't help but exaggerate and say that "Balta thinks Cease should bring back absolute dogshit". Do the transitive property - I think Cease should bring back 1 top 100 piece and one piece outside the top 100, that is more than Giolito brought back, and they insist that I think "Cease should bring back absolute dogshit", therefore - 1 top 100 piece plus another prospect is therefore absolute dogshit. Giolito's deal, therefore, brought back worse than what they just called dogshit, so it's not worth talking about.
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I mean, I've said that Cease should return a top 100 prospect and one other piece, so I guess the Giolito return was "absolute dogshit". I don't have to explain the Giolito return since he brought back worse than Dogshit.
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I think I'd be more surprised if Glasnow brought back a top 100 prospect than if Cease brought back the luxury packages y'all envision. Dude's good, but the Rays are clearing salary, $25 million is a lot for 1 year, and he has a very clear injury history that makes him a risk over a full season. This is the Rays we're talking about. They win trades because they don't follow top 100 lists, they find guys who turn out way better than expected when put into their system. They will take 2 pitchers who are #10 and #12 in some mid-level system, turn them into fireballing relievers, get 2 years out of each of them, trade 1 for 3 more prospects, and then have the other go down for TJS.
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https://www.sportsbusinessjournal.com/Articles/2023/09/14/chicago-white-sox-ticket-sales-no-fee-payments-isfa.aspx If memory serves the deal might have been even sweeter in the first few years - I think JR constructed a deal with extra incentives in those years to cover himself if there was a big, long-lasting, and damaging strike, but I dont' have time to go through the full agreement text.
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Glasnow brought back a top 100 prospect and more? I'm impressed that's one hell of a return for a guy with that contract state and injury history, but, when did these deals happen? I can't find them listed anywhere?
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The White Sox asked the Reds for 2 top 100 prospects and the Reds said yes? Why didn't anyone change the thread title to say that he had been traded.
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Because that super sweetheart deal expires in 2029, and politicians would have to actively take steps to renew it just to keep it as is. I sure wouldn't if I were an Illinois state politician - that stadium better be funding itself completely and paying money back to the government if I'm in that role.
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Interesting that they’re moving on from Bakers Favorite.
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Is “he’s not worth two top 100 prospects” equal to “he’s not worth much”?
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You’d say hell no to trading away Benintendi if the Yankees paid half his deal?
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I mean, you'd absolutely think about doing this if you were the White Sox right?
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I would absolutely support an NFL and NBA-like signing period start date. Shut everything down in November, focus on the awards, maybe set some rules for what kinds of things can be discussed, and then allow signings to start either last week or this week - see if the competitive teams suddenly are jumping over themselves to get things done right at the start and that creates pressure like you see in the other sports. A deadline at the end definitely works, we saw that in 2021 as well, but it seems harder to implement if a guy is somehow just out of luck if he's not signed by a certain date.