Greg Hibbard

I get where people are headed as far as lineup construction is concerned, but I think it's virtually irrelevant where either bats in the order as long they are getting basically the same number of PAs a year.

This is the exact discussion I'm looking for. It's interesting, because I think it brings to mind what limits us in quantifying everything. I think TA is absolutely more valuable than Yoan, and love them both, but I can't really point to a number as to why. It's fascinating.

I have this perception that is apparently erroneous...and I think a lot of people who follow the Sox closely have a similar view.... ...that Tim Anderson is the sparkplug, the savior, he who we are doomed without....that if he does certain things we win games, if he hits a homer, or has an RBI, we are certain to win. ...whereas despite being one of my favorite players, I typically view Yoan Moncada as just a necessary component, but NOT as a player who wins us games. He gets on base, he'll get three hits here and there, or take three walks, but they are just part of the story. However, this season, statistically, they are almost exactly identically valuable: FWAR: Moncada 4.1, Anderson 3.9 BWAR: Moncada 3.9, Anderson 4.0 Moncada .264/.377/.405/.782 Anderson .301/.330/.458/.788 My question is - ARE these players actually similarly valuable? Or do the stats NOT tell the whole story?

wait a second, regarding the notion of the "cupcake" schedule... last four starts were CIN, OAK, LAA, CLE, which has an average winning percentage of .504... 18.1 IP, 19 H, 4 BB, 9ER, 17K IDK, I'd take those numbers from a fifth starter against above average teams.

Good points, but I can't think of a season where we haven't needed an occasional sixth starter for any number of reasons. Cupcake schedule or not, having a 6th starter capable of giving us wins against MLB teams - even teams like Baltimore or Arizona - is an asset I definitely want to employ. I slot Reylo in the long relief/spot start role, Kopech in the bullpen, and if Keuchel continues to implode I'd rather go with trying to tweak Reylo's upside than Keuchel who can't miss any bats at all.

I dunno, it seems as though the lineup will be Anderson / Robert / Abreu / Grandal / Moncada / Jimenez as the top six, with Robert and Moncada interchangeable depending on the hand of the starter. Do you disagree? Tony has experimented a lot but that feels like the right lineup and what he would go with. Abreu is still sporting a .377 OBP in September despite the lack of homers. Yes, I would like to see more pop, but I don't really have a problem with what Abreu is doing right now. What would you do differently to get Eloy out of his slump? He's playing almost every day. I certainly wouldn't sit him.

I guess this is my point - what will the lineup be for those three games against houston? who will the starting pitchers be? who will the relievers be? Will they be on full rest? Why is everyone focusing on a statement like "the white sox are 31-31 since the break"? Do we really care about Dallas Keuchel starts where Seby Zavala + Brian Goodwin + Leury Garcia were all in the lineup? How is that even comparable? Here's an example of a recent box score against a contender: https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/TBA/TBA202108210.shtml Robert, Anderson, Grandal all missing from the lineup and Keuchel/Wright/Ruiz pitching. Do you think this accurately represents what we will do vs. Tampa in the postseason? I certainly don't...

I would assume most teams have had their ideal lineup play together more than 4 times this season.

It’s 3-1 and they’ve averaged over 9 runs scored in those games. It kind of underscores how little we have seen that lineup play and how potent that lineup can be.

I’m sure you’re aware of what this team’s record is when Anderson, Robert, Moncada, Abreu, Grandal, Jimenez are all in the lineup together? Because that’s the lineup we are going to see for the postseason in every game.

In the 18 games that Grandal has started since coming back, BEFORE those last two stupid Detroit games, the Sox were 11-7. There have been very few games lately where we have started our entire compliment of studs.

Do we really want to go back and focus on those games before Robert and Jimenez and Grandal were all back? Do we really want to emphasize the games that Anderson didnt start because he was being selectively rested? How would that even make sense in terms of predicting the playoffs?

The whole second half? No. They were 17-12 from August 1 to September 1 facing the Rays, Yankees, A’s and Blue Jays in that stretch. Since then, they’ve struggled.

Man. All these threads about one 7-10 stretch in which Tim Anderson is sitting out literally half the games, Andrew Vaughn is on the IL, Eloy is slumping about as badly as he can, and the starting pitching includes 3 Dallas Keuchel starts (all losses) when he likely will not make a postseason start.

This. I sincerely don’t get what I’m seeing on this forum in some ways. At the beginning of the season, even before Eloy’s injury (but especially after), I seem to recall almost everyone pitting the white sox as close, but maybe still a year away from a potential World Series run. Then it seemed the goalposts and expectations moved in a flash here, after the Mercedes experience bought us a few wins, after the pitching carried us through some injuries/spotty hitting, after the early surprise returns by Robert and Jimenez, and especially after the mid season “go for it now” acquisitions the FO made. It got way more expectational here. It also became kind of an entitled environment. This is still a very young core at heart. They will be streaky. Jimenez will heat up, Robert will cool down. Vaughn is still finding his entire game. Even Moncada and Anderson still go through “young” stretches although they continue to mature before our eyes. Most of these guys are way younger than 27. if this team loosens up, they’ll have enough raw talent to make every game very interesting. I think they will… after they clinch. This is just a pretty bad week. but also - IMO there aren’t 29 losers and 1 winner every baseball season, and I feel If the Sox take Houston deep into a series and they just beat us, we will be better next year and closer next year.

Everyone needs to settle down with the extreme solutions. MLB caliber players go through really bad slumps sometimes - Paul Konerko had a .568 OPS first half in 2003 - and that was 4 years into his career.

He needs an “IL” stint to reset after Anderson comes back. Give him a few days off. He’s been very bad the last 3 weeks.

Considering DK's low strikeout rate and ineffectiveness for 5+ months, I want him nowhere near the playoffs - no matter what he does in his last 4 season starts.

I’m glad a couple of people got it! ?

In a touch of Soxtalk irony, Leury is pretty much the only one who showed up to play tonight.

My preference is that Dallas stay in for a minimum of 400 pitches tonight

And the Lamb….winds up……with BLUEEEEE JAYS

But how many professional Major League Baseball players who primarily play the position of catcher, with a minimum of 250 PAs this season, have an OPS of over .900? How many catchers have Grandal’s OBP? Conversely, how many UT players who play a bunch of infield and or outfield positions have an OPS over .700? WAR does not describe everything. It’s a component - like wRC+, like OPS, like intangibles. All are valuable for vastly different reasons. WAR doesnt adequately describe value on its own.

The problem with using WAR to evaluate Leury is that WAR does not accurately account for the value of positional flexibility. Leury’s single biggest asset is that he is an average to above average defensive player at literally six positions, which gives you the flexibility of resting 4 different starters a week. Also, Leury’s defensive WAR is profoundly exaggerated at all positions because of a low sample size at each one, and almost impossible to accurately measure because of the same reason. Leury has been clearly extremely valuable to this club this season - but it is NOT in a statistically measurable way. If we didn’t have the injuries we had, IE if this was the 2005 club, he would not be valuable at all, and we would have correspondingly DFA’ed him in June. Leury will have a future somewhere with another club next year, but barring another round of freakish injuries at numerous positions, I don’t think it will be with the Sox.

Eh, I know many disagree but if Jose is able to somehow remain very productive until age 40 while being a DH, the whole HOF conversation really does change IMO. In that scenario he puts himself in the neighborhood of 400 homers and with the lens of his missing 6 years of playing time there’s a case to be made he would have made it to 500 with a full career. Keep in mind he’s very well liked, keeps himself in tremendous shape, works very hard at the game, and is a great clubhouse guy.