Greg Hibbard

I understand your point, but take the best third of any all star player’s stats (his 132 games of 2019 is roughly a third of his games played) out of his resume and see where you land with others. I’m going to keep going back to the points that Moncada has proven he can do a very high number while Madrigal has not, and if Madrigal is truly a 0 home run hitter that is my issue which isn’t sample size. My worry is 0 home runs. Literally 0. If he hits even 3-5 I will feel TONS better. You really can’t be a very low power hitter in MLB and have enough value without nearly league leading stats in many other categories.

Let me put this another way. We already know Moncada had a 132 game season in which he put up 5.6 fWAR, which is top tier. We also already know he can have bad streaks, but the least fWAR he does is 2.0 (his full 2018 season). So it seems like good Moncada year or bad Moncada year....like some have suggested in the other thread, his spread is huge, 2-6 fWAR but not less than 2. That’s the key - not less than 2 but the ceiling is huge. Very high ceiling and certainly a way high enough floor. So I guess I would like someone to take me through the stat line where Nick Madrigal could crack 3.5 fWAR, let alone 5-6 fWAR. I think we all know his floor is at least 1-1.5. I just can’t see him doing more than 2.5-3.5 as a ceiling. The value in Madrigal is if his floor is as high as we hope it is.

10.5 WAR over 2.53 complete seasons is proving something. Why are you hung up on separating the off the charts elite year from the subpar or the mediocre ones when the entire resume is aggregately an all star clip?

I’m skeptical of Madrigal’s value and very pro Moncada, because Moncada’s “sample size” is actually 411 games and he has already proven he can produce 4.15 fWAR per 162. There simply isn’t a sample size issue when it comes to evaluating his entire production; Moncada has already proven he is an all star caliber player, albeit a very streaky one. For those attempting to cherry pick the last 68 games and extrapolate that Moncada is somehow bad now, the answer is no, he’s absolutely not. He’s still very, very good. The set of 2020-21 games being referenced is just cherry picking bad stats due to BABIP being low and perhaps after effects of COVID. Moncada’s already proven himself and Madrigal has not.

What reassures me about Yoan is that we have ceiling is capable of being quite high over a sustained period. I could see him being a very streaky, high variance/high strikeout/frustrating to follow hitter, but even he’s just a 3.5 WAR player I’m good. I do think he will get back on track when the weather warms up.

His BABIP suggests he’s having at least some bad luck, and when considered with the COVID he battled and the sample size of 68 games we’re talking about, I tend to think he’ll end up doing at least as well as his career average, which not only includes his insanely good 2019, but also his not great 2018, his meh 2016-17 blip, and his meh 2020-21.

10.5 fWAR over 411 games is the biggest disappointment? Wow. That’s 4.15 fWAR per 162 games.

Guys....some of you defending Madrigal are also viciously attacking posters who are questioning his value...quite personally. It’s bewildering. A lot of you keep going back to what Madrigal is currently hitting above league average and yet citing madrigals own sample size as being too small. Do you really think entire teams like the Yankees and Cubs and Indians are going to keep hitting .202-.205 with a .650 OPS all season? 80% of the teams are currently hitting below .250 as a team to start the season. I’ll reiterate my central point again because my central point is irrelevant of sample size. If he is truly is the *zero* home run MLB player he has been thus far, which is really my worst fear... I think he will have to hit doubles and triples at a lead leading clip, and have essentially have the highest average and obp in baseball to be able to generate enough offensive firepower to be better than a typical 15 home run hitting .250/.740 second baseman. He may be able to do that, but that is a huge ask.

That's a good point, but I would counter that at least this season's portion of Nick's sample size is in cold spring months (and maybe a few were in colder fall games last year), though. While I agree about the ascension of pitching, do you think he will be 8% better than league average when sluggers are launching home runs all June and July and August during 90 degree weather?

Haha, this took me forever. I got out my abacus I think where I'm arriving in this thread is that even with extremely low strikeout totals, given the stats we're looking at, it seems like we need Nick to come in with either a .400 OBP (with a .370 SLG) or a .400 SLG (with a .370 OBP) in order to be a good enough *offensive* piece (defense aside). To get to .400 SLG, with 0 home runs, hitting .320, he has to hit 7 triples and 34 home runs per 162, which is why the lack of home runs really concerns me. In other words, when you hit 0 home runs, you have to have a REALLY high average, a REALLY high obp, and hit a LOT of doubles and triples..

Taking the grand total column of the grid, let's compare player A to player B Player A: 217 strikeouts, 242 field outs, 68 BB, 98 singles, 34 doubles, 6 triples, 22 home runs = 4.05 Player B: 32 strikeouts, 350 field outs, 29 BB, 158 singles, 18 doubles, 4 triples, 0 home runs = -3.96 Player A is Yoan Moncada's (.258/.334/.442/.776) career per 162 game totals Player B is Nick Madrigal's (.321/.367/.365/.732) career per 162 game totals

Determining his value in that way isn't problematic to me though, because singles hitters often fail to score, especially without ++ wheels to steal bases. How many times is Nick stuck on first? While the situation last night is the optimal productive out combination, it relies on - a man getting on 2nd base ahead of Nick, madrigal executing, anderson executing. Even if all three events happen 40% of the time (an insanely high estimate), three 40% events happening *together* happens 6.4% of the time. And how many times a year does that situation even potentially come up for the ninth hitter? I would imagine very few. We're probably talking about a handful of events this season, right? If you're a crusher like Mercedes, or even a free swinger with blistering pop like Moncada, hitters who don't have the bat control Nick has, but can absolutely crush the ball 3-5% of the time they're up...those hitters score that run no matter how many times they strike out and how low their average is ultimately. This game is about SCORING RUNS, not hitting safely, and not about not striking out. Perfect situational hitting with productive outs down in the order is something that the stars rarely line up for.

I am skeptical of Madrigal's value (in this thread and outside of it) but I don't think he's a bust, even at 1.5-1.7 WAR. I just think there would be better options, even in-house, if he doesn't have enough. I also think it's perfectly fine to draft a player 4th overall and end up with an extremely valuable utility infielder. It's really hard to make it in the major leagues.

To reframe this discussion - is it possible that Nick is truly nearly a zero home runs MLB player? In 705 minor league at bats he had 4 home runs across all levels... I think whether he is a 0-2 home runs player per season vs. being capable of 5-6 home runs a year makes a seemingly GIGANTIC difference in his value.

How the hell does grandal keep doing this

I think my point keeps getting missed. WAR does not care if you are a 23 year old up and coming hitter or a 31 year old hitter on the decline. WAR is WAR. My point in the comp was to illustrate what a singles hitter that doesn’t do much else would look like in terms of WAR for the White Sox. If Madrigal hit .308/.365/.392/.757 with 20 doubles, 10 triples, 0 home runs, and 30 SB people would over the moon at those raw stats. In Pierres case he was measured in terms of WAR against other LF, and maybe that crippled him, I’m not sure how it changes for Madrigal compared to other 2B, but if he did end up with a 1.7 or so WAR with all those raw stats that feels disappointing to me. The other thing about Pierre is that he also struck out a lower percentage of the time.

Juan Pierre’s age has nothing to do with this discussion. His inability to do much more than hit singles and be below average at everything else at that point in his career is absolutely a fair comparison to what we all think is Madrigals floor. Some of you are quite defensive - I’m still optimistic about Madrigal. I will maintain until I’m blue in the face that if he has very low to nonexistent power he’s a bust as a first rounder. My point is that a singles hitter - even a .300+ singles hitter with a very high OBP - has a low WAR and we have seen that as white Sox fans firsthand.

Yes, but extrapolating his 2009 to 600 PAs you still come in at a 1.65 WAR - is that acceptable to you for a starter? also, that 162 game 4 WAR campaign included 3 home runs, 12 triples (to lead the league) and 45 stolen bases. Are you suggesting that Nick is capable of any or all of those feats? To key off of similar stats to what you mentioned consider Adam Dunn’s 23 year old season - .215 batting average, 27 home runs, 469 PAs, 1.7 WAR. He had a ton of walks which made his obp .350. I know you said less home runs but Adam Dunn has an atrocious batting average in that line and was still able to easily generate plenty of WAR. Madrigal is actually exactly my cup of tea....I love his game...if he has just a LITTLE more pop (3-4 homers, 8-10 triples) I fear he is a 0 home runs, 2 triples, 15 doubles, 140 singles with about 40 walks player...the value in creating runs from that stat line seems problematic.

Counterpoint: It’s perfectly legit for White Sox fans who had to suffer through late career Juan Pierre to wonder whether a .300 hitter without much in the wheels, power, or defense department might be a liability. Pierre hit .308 with a .370 OBP in 2009 for the dodgers just before coming to the Sox and it was a whopping 1.2 WAR. When he became a .280/.340 hitter for the Sox, he dipped into 0/negative WAR territory. I think Madrigal has upside and I’m excited about him on this team but BA is not the greatest measure here. His ceiling without power, wheels, or defense is not much higher than his high floor.

Maybe, but IMO WAR and RC+ are definite measures that are indicative of his value vs a typical player who would replace him. Personally I think this will be a season long debate given Nick’s bizarre skill set.

In the 15 games prior to Kopech’s planned short start, by my math White Sox starters have thrown 84 1/3 innings, an average of 5 2/3rds per start. In 4 of those games pitched, there were only 8 innings of Sox pitching during road losses, so the total number of innings was only 131, so Sox starters had thrown 64% of the innings pitched this season. Yes the last couple days have taken a toll on that. However, overall that feels fine and I would bet a high percentage compared to other teams, but I haven’t researched further. This whole thing today felt like another excuse for TLR to go recklessly old school/gimmicky on us.

I guess the thing that makes me mad about this is we have Rodon going tomorrow coming off of pitching a nearly perfect game, Cleveland’s offense is scuffling this season and yet we are treating this bullpen with kid gloves. Why? Rodon can go deep tomorrow. All of our starters can go deep.

look I get the intention to concede the game and not tax the pen, but why risk injury? These guys don’t know how to field the position and pitching is unnatural to them at this stage of their career. I know it’s “part of the game” or whatever but I don’t think pitching should be something that you just throw a position player into on a whim. Heuer last pitched Friday, why not throw him 1 inning? Bummer threw 1 inning this series, why not throw him?

This is getting stupid

How can he enter the game at a position after starting at DH?