Greg Hibbard

what a game.

Our won-loss is likely going to be 11 or 12 games better than last year. I don't know how that translates to "barely better"

Love 2 see Twins suck

1.135 was the actual OPS number. I done added wrong.

Those numbers I previously quoted just went to .390/.444/.719/1.163

Just want to point out that since August 5th Abreu is now hitting (including 2 singles today in 2 at bats) .381/.437/.698/1.135 in his last 71 plate appearances.

Also, to be honest, I think the White Sox are sticking with Renteria in part because he's fluent in Spanish and they value that with such a big proportion of latin talent.

The only thing I'll add to this convo is that analytics are 100% useful in evaluating talent and making decisions, but they are still a work-in-progress. I think metrics now don't necessarily represent the absolute end-all be-all and eventually some of them will change and be improved upon. T

Farmer and DJ have recently said that Jose simply wasn’t getting balls in the zone at all and that the difference was that he was swinging at the first pitch out of the zone and now he’s taking ball 1. Castillo and Alonso hitting behind Abreu wasn’t just inappropriate, it seemed exploitable beyond an all star having a league average hitter behind them.

Looking at Jose's peripherals, it doesn't seem like much has changed to indicate he's suddenly gone south. Is it possible that his last two seasons his low BABIP has worked to depress his numbers? Also, do you think with a stronger lineup Jose's numbers would improve?

the top 8 teams have a 1.6 or better WAR production out of the DH slot, the bottom 7 AL teams have 1.1 or less. I suppose 1.6 bWAR is currently AL League Average. I would be happy with basically AL league average production out of DH, considering that we are getting great offensive production out of so many other positions next year with even more help coming during the year.

The WAR table seems to indicate that anything over 1.1 is above AL league average.

This is the WAR table https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/team_compare.cgi?lg=MLB&year=2019

Correct me if I'm wrong but doesn't this table when sorted by DH indicate that only three MLB teams have more than 1 WAR at the DH position? I know half those teams are NL, but this seems to indicate that a 1 WAR at DH is perfectly acceptable. EDIT: oops, this is WAA, not WAR. https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/team_compare.cgi?lg=MLB&year=2019

We're talking about a 1000 AB sample size in which 500 AB of it was Jose being dinged up by various injuries all of last year - and still producing just fine, all things considered. If we're REALLY going to be honest about Jose, he's been remarkably consistent in the 5 years after his rookie year. Yes, there's been some deviation, but post ROY he is what he is - basically a .290/.320/.500/.820 reliable piece of offense. That's basically what he is this year too, accounting for his BABIP. I really do NOT buy into the theory that 32 year old Jose Abreu is somehow remarkably different offensively from 29 or 30 year old Abreu. I do buy into the theory that 27 year old Abreu was a different hitter.

Full disclosure, I was convinced that the Sox should have pursued Machado and was very disappointed with what happened. However, after scrutinizing his numbers this season and last, I just don't really get why he's SO valued. I must be missing something. I understand that at his position, his defense carries a lot of weight, but his offensive numbers have never seemed overwhelmingly good to me. And if defense doesn't really carry nearly as much value as offense does in terms of "wins", why is he so valuable?

Defensively he's terrible. However, if we are just strictly speaking offense here, why is it "obvious decline"? I don't exactly agree with that. Maybe "slight decline". His batting average is 20 points below his career average, and his on base is 30 points below career average, but his BABIP is also 20 points below his career average. His K% is slightly up (something like 2%). I would say accounting for his BABIP, he's right about where you would expect him to be.

I don't really understand people who DON'T want Abreu back in a DH-only role. Given all the issues we have had since 2011 finding a consistent DH, it seems like as streaky as he is, Abreu can be counted on to reliably deliver an .800ish OPS. It's not like those grow on trees, or that they come without cost. We would either need to sign a FA DH for a similar amount of money as a DH or slot in one of our relatively unproven kids like Collins as DH (not Eloy - he still belongs in the field with Robert's range being huge and as long as he calls him off a lot). He makes the most sense here, he wants to be back, we want him back. Even if they overpay, who fucking cares? Reinsdorf has billions and you're crazy if you think $10 or $12 million a year makes a big difference. He might make the fans feel that way, but all of these owners could afford $500 million dollar payrolls even if they treat their fanbases like they can't afford it.

Does that IL time you're citing account for the 162 games lost for Michael Kopech, for example?

You are making up pressure that doesn't exist. Are you fucking joking? This is a guy who defected from Cuba to come here, thrived under pressure at every level (including the majors) in order to become one of the best offensive players of his era, and you're saying that the TRADE DEADLINE is causing him to lose sleep and crack under pressure? GMAFB, dude. The routine is old, and what you've thought over the past 3 years has largely been incorrect. I find it hilarious that Jose will be back next year, and all of your trolling on this board won't have any impact on that.

They will be in the hunt for the division all of next year. They are currently on pace to win 10 or 11 games more than last season, and that's with a rash of injuries. If we have a healthy Moncada, TA7, and Robert and Madrigal come up and inject major league numbers into replacement level placeholders, and if Kopech returns to form and Cease and Lopez are better, and if Giolito is still good we should win 85 games.

No, ron, I'm not going to let you pound this into your agenda. Jose isn't magically better post trade deadline. He's just a much worse hitter in cold weather. The August sample size isn't big enough to mean anything in terms of deviating from June or July or September. His June-September numbers are way, way better than his March-May numbers, though.

I don't understand why everyone thinks every starting player on this team needs to be a 2+ WAR player. That's not the way it is on virtually any team. It certainly wasn't the case on the 2005 White Sox. Pods was a 1.7, Crede was a 1.6. Carl Everett was a 0.0 and Frank Thomas was a 0.4 - so our combined DH was a 0.4. Why should the standards be different for Jose Abreu than any other position? If we take him out of defense, his WAR for this season goes way up - warts and all. I think he has one more hot streak in him. Yes, when he hits he's amazing and when he doesn't he looks done. His last 120 at bats are what everyone's focusing on in making a referendum about whether his career is over. I'd be careful with that. 120 ABs is still a miniscule sample size.

Gonna be at this one.

I wasn't alive in that era, so I don't have the insight, but I appreciate the perspective.