Greg Hibbard

haha I guess that is a stretch. I just meant in terms of how someone will overvalue him.

Avi Garcia is the Carlos Lee of this era. Some team will give him a ton of cash and regret it. I hope it's not us.

5-6 years ago I would have thought it would be out of the question to have a debate about who the better career hitter was, but Pujols' recent stat-crash has put his batting line below the Big Hurt's: Pujols: .302/.382/.554/.936 Thomas: .301/.419/.555/.974 Obviously, Pujols has 112 more homers and 140 more doubles, but Frank has 2000 less PAs (he had many strike and injury shortened seasons) and far more walks. Who do you think the better hitter is? It's likely that as long as he plays, Albert's career mark will continue to decline...should that count against him in the comparison? He's still younger than Frank was at retirement...

I'm sure he's shooting higher, but there's no way Jose Abreu gets $18M a year in FA next year at his age, right?

I don't mind 4/52-55. Everything else is way too much for diminishing returns.

Pay $16 million re-evaluate after 2019 nobody else will pay him big money considering his age he has a preference for the Sox so they have the advantage in negotiation why on earth do anything else?

These are the two things I think the board is greatly split on. 1) Anderson was a 2.5 WAR player, basically in the top 150 of all players. He had an OPS 10 points higher than 2017 despite a BABIP 39 points lower. Given his BABIP, what did you exactly expect him to do, offensively? 2) Moncada showed improvement on strikeouts after August 16th. He only struck out 45 of his last 161 plate appearances (27.9%) as opposed to the 172 times in his previous 489 plate appearances (35.1%). His OPS in September was .767. I still think he's a year behind many people on development, if not more, due to the time he was compelled to sit out to get over here. He essentially didn't play pro ball for the better part of 18 months at a crucial time. Over the next 1000 PAs I expect a significant improvement from him. I still think he'll be a .790 OPS player with 25 homers, 30 2B, 70 BB, and 150 Ks. If Moncada and Anderson continue to improve, and if Kopech comes back healthy and Eloy performs as expected - and if Madrigal and Robert have significant ML value - the rebuild can only be termed a success. 2019 is the crucial year that will determine it.

That makes sense to me. Thanks for doing the math. Given that baseball is perhaps more rife with payroll disparity in that era than other sports, wouldn’t you think the median would be lower than the mean, given teams like the Red Sox and Yankees who spent their way to the AL playoffs year after year after year, especially in the late 90s and 00s?

I hate to drag the discussion back from the abyss of attendance, but this post from a few pages ago really bothers me. Yes, the White Sox had an era from 1920-1982 where they made the playoffs just once, which was the worst of probably any franchise by far. Since then they've made the playoffs 5 times. Here's all the teams that haven't gone to the playoffs more than the White Sox since 1983: Milwaukee (3), Kansas City (4), Cincinnati (5), Miami (2), Seattle (4), Tampa Bay (4), Expos/Nationals (4), Padres (5), Rockies (5). Yes I realize a few of those teams weren't born until well after 1983. A handful of other teams have gone 6 times since 1983 (Arizona, Baltimore, Detroit, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh). It seems to me that 5-6-7 playoff appearances is about the median for baseball teams over the past 35 years. I think it's also worth pointing out that the mighty New York Yankees only went to the postseason 5 times during the 30 year stretch of 1965-1994.

Ok, so let me be clear on your take here. Another aspect of my point is that Palka was able to put up the equivalent of a 1.0 season in his very first 449 PAs. I think more importantly though, his HR/PA and WAR vastly improved from his first 200 PAs compared to his last 250. Do you think that improvement is luck/illusory or growth?

Yes, the Cubs have had a nice 4 year run. Do you disagree that the White Sox were one of the 7-8 best franchises from 1990-2010?

Taking his 0.7 fWAR for 449 plate appearances and presenting it here as if it's a seasonal statistic is really fair to you, right?

The White Sox were a very, very competitive and successful team from 1990-2010 in the majority of seasons, and I think some fans incorporate that into their frustration while simultaneously forgetting that this has been a great franchise for those years - one that fares very well compared to most of the others. 4 division titles, and arguably our best team was the one ripped away from us by the strike. We won a title. How many other teams can say that over those 22 years? The Yankees won 5 of them, the Red Sox 2, the Blue Jays 2, the Marlins 2. Over half of the 21 championships in 22 years went to just 4 of the teams..... The Braves were a better team, certainly, despite also only winning one title - they won 4 pennants. Were the Indians a better franchise? In terms of regular season record, no doubt. They have zero titles to show for it. Would you trade places with their fans? Most teams were worse. The Cubs - 4 division titles with not even a pennant to show for it. The A's never won a title in that era despite their incredible '90 season and the run they had in the early 2000s. The Mariners and their 116 win season, and all the glory of having both Ichiro and Junior, among other stars - nada - not even a pennant. When we get into competitive teams like the Astros? Great players for many years - some hall of famers - a pennant to show for it and being swept handily by our team. Teams like the Brewers, Rockies, Padres? The Expos/Nationals? Teams like the Pirates? Many were occasionally competitive. Some were a joke almost that entire era. From 1995 to 2009 the Yankees, Red Sox, or Indians won the pennant in nearly every year - the only exceptions are the Angels in 2002, the White Sox in 2005, The Tigers in 2006, and the Rays in 2008 (which I think everyone acknowledges might be the most miraculous thing ever done). Our team actually WON - the whole enchilada - a title.... in that era of unbalanced insane dominance by force of payroll. We have had an unbelievably bad 8 years. There's no question that 2011-2018 was really, really bad. The acquisition of Adam Dunn kicked off an era where things just went wrong. Really wrong. They went wrong for basically 5 and a half seasons until we finally decided that enough was enough - that the firing of Guillen, handing over the keys to Hahn and still trying to retool under Ventura just wasn't enough - that a wholesale different direction was required. I for one, think that our team during most of my life did quite well. Certainly during those 22 years I mentioned, we did VERY well. Especially when compared to most other franchises. I never thought I would see a title from the vantage point of 95-99 - when the Indians just CRUSHED us every year in the division, and then the Yanks and eventually the Red Sox would just outspend one another to buy a title with a fantasy squad. Did you? But here's the thing - those 22 good years bought the White Sox a little fan equity in my mind. I'm not really the frustrated baseball fan enduring decades of losing. No White Sox fan is. Really going back to the late 80s when they drafted those four superstars in a row - the franchise has done plenty right. But that's not the point even - I'm a fan of the White Sox because I've always been a fan since I was a kid and always will be. However, I do trust that this ownership group WILL right the ship BECAUSE they are owed a few bad seasons because of the 22 good ones we had. I might be wrong. They might not be able to do it. But after the first 5 of those bad seasons, decisions were made to completely tear down and rebuild which necessitated the need for definitely 2017 and 2018 just being bad. 90 losses, 95 losses, 100 losses....more....it was gonna be bad and we knew it. Therefore, NO, I don't think anyone needs to be axed this year, necessarily. I really don't. If you want to blame the Steverson, consider this - does he also deserve accolades for Daniel Palka having an unreal year? Does he deserve any accolades for fixing some of Moncada's strikeout problems in the last month of the season - against many frontline starters? I think the franchise having some continuity in this offseason actually has more value than making a change. I think 2019 is the year you can start to get impatient. I think 2019 is the crucial season in which the most important decisions will be made, and when Moncada and Anderson better be 2.5-3.5 WAR players (Anderson really is already there, hopefully), when the pitching staff better be getting into place, and when we need to absolutely shore up the positions of C and CF for the medium term. If a big step forward isn't made and this team isn't in a position to compete for a division title by the end of 2019, then I think you start to make WHOLESALE changes with leadership, at that point.

The last two pure rebuilds before this one were 1997-99 and 1986-88?

I take exception to this. Anderson's OPS was 9 points higher with his BABIP 40 points lower.

There is a chance that Avi's injuries contributed to what would have otherwise been a fine year. If the Sox aren't in the running for Machado, why not spend the $8 million? What's the downside there? To be clear, I think the non-tender option is also fine, but I think there's a chance he has trade value after all if a team comes up with an injured starting outfielder.

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/24935217/avisail-garcia-chicago-white-sox-surgery-right-knee

I think the idea of non-tendering Avi is intriguing, but I also like having control of him in case he has another monster year.

Moncada’s 2 WAR season feels totally fine to me, and his .301/.767 sept with a significantly reduced K rate - not just against scrubs but also games against many playoff contenders - gives me a lot of optimism

weird game to go to

now 32-34 since July 10 (extrapolates to a 78.5 win season) without Jose Abreu for most of it with Yoan Moncada still developing and not being as good as he will be with Dylan Covey still starting games with a bullpen that isn't good without Eloy Jimenez mostly without Michael Kopech or with him being rained out of most starts without any quality FA Remember that Ozzie Guillen's "competitive" teams of 2009 and 2011 basically had the same winning percentage....

I just don't see the point of adding a player like Shields for 2019. If Kopech hadn't been set back, there was an argument to be made that the White Sox could have been competitive in 2019 for the division. However, without Kopech, we just don't have the talent to compete without spending a TON on FA to get there. We're not going to do that, as we have a lot of talent at several key positions that will be ready to evaluate at the ML level between 2020-2021, like Robert, Madrigal, Cease, and Dunning. I think the smartest plan is to get innings for as many potential cusp starters as possible in 2019. We need to see who of 7-8 people we want to take into 2020.

Yes, the team will do what it does, but we post opinions on message boards anyway.

I literally cannot believe some think it is more important to win 63 games than to get the #3 instead of potentially the #5 or #6 pick. The difference between the #3 and the #6 pick could be a world championship. 100 losses will never be remembered if the Sox get a world series title because of it.

sitting Moncada to avoid the record seems dumb since he's extremely unlikely to get 13ks in 7 games.