Greg Hibbard

I wonder if people look at our schedule and also say "well, there's a game we should have lost but didn't" with the same zeal I guess we're too busy with the "worst. 2 game lead. ever." rhetoric

QUOTE (flavum @ Sep 21, 2012 -> 12:13 PM) Maybe you can say, the Sox went 14-4 against the Twins and 6-12 against the Royals, and that's baseball. Stuff happens. When it comes to a division where high-80's wins it, and you go 6-12 against that team, you pretty much blew it by losing to them. When I set up the Division thread (Road to 91 wins), I had the Tigers winning two more games than the Sox in the final 13 games. So right now I have them both going 88-74. Hopefully the Twins and Royals help us out, and the Sox win tonight. But I don't think the entire season is all about how they play these final two weeks. It's a collective thing, but how you play against teams in your division, particularly the one chasing you or ahead of you does matter because they're twice as important as the rest of the games. With respect to the division, Id' say playing over .500 is the desired result, and we will play well over .500 if we handle the Indians. In fact, we'll have a winning percentage that hopefully nearly mirrors our overall winning percentage. Divisional opponents see you more often, are more familiar with your strengths and weaknesses and generally play you tougher. Is it surprising that one or two of them would disproportionately handle you better? Not to me. Every year this happens with one team or another. Some say the '03 Tigers were allegedly responsible for us being in the position we were in that year by going 7-11 against us despite a 43 win season. I prefer to say that it was the final 5 games against the Twins that we lost. The Twins for years owned us. It's the nature of divisional play. We're 34-32 and I expect us to be 38-34 at season's end. A .530 divisional record is perfectly acceptable. There are examples of teams who are contenders who do great against their division, examples of teams that will fall short and struggled against divisional teams, but also examples of teams who struggled and it doesn't matter (Texas, Oakland, for example). I agree and disagree. It's about how you play for the entire year for every team - except the ones who control their own destiny in a playoff race in late September. For those teams, it comes down to the final few games where that team controls their own destiny. I don't see how anyone could have any other perspective. If the Sox win an above average number of divisional games they'll win their division.

btw Cali I also feel pretty good. I don't think Detroit will go better than 9-4 and I like our chances to go 8-5.

QUOTE (flavum @ Sep 21, 2012 -> 11:45 AM) Sox went 6-12 against the Tigers and Royals. If they lose the division, of course it has a lot to do with losing to these teams. No, it doesn't. Changing those results changes every other result in the season as well. They completely control their own destiny and the only teams standing in their way are not named the Royals or the Tigers.

I'm sick of people saying "not beating KC will be the reason we lost this division" if we end up second. We're 5-13 against KC and done with them (and Detroit), and we're 2 games up in the division. If you want to cherry pick the 18 KC games out of the schedule, you'd have to change every other result as well, because after certain losing streaks/games the team got up/down for the next one. It's akin to saying "if we had that hit he would have scored". You can't cherry pick like that. Maybe if we won 2/3 in the trip to KC we have a let down somewhere else. This season will be won/lost @Anaheim, vs. TB/Cle and @Cle.

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Sep 18, 2012 -> 10:39 AM) Those are the percentages to make the playoffs via AL Central or Wild Card. For the division, Sox are at 81.6 (82.3-0.7) and Tigers are at 18.4 (21.6-3.2) But the East and West add to 100, and there's a separate WC section below, no?

82.3 + 21.6 = 103. 9?

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Sep 17, 2012 -> 04:41 PM) But I thought we lost in the third inning? f***ing game thread drama queens. Guilty!

Another comforting thing: Detroit's road record is now 34-41. KC and Minny might be the last two series on the schedule, but those two are road series, and the Tigs are 2-4 vs. those two teams away from Comerica in the second half.

What a huge win.

bump - edited original post grid.

I stick with Jones forever.

I just can't watch the rest of this game. Just can't watch. Just too angry. Just too f***ing angry.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Sep 17, 2012 -> 10:30 AM) Detroit is 14-9 on the season against Minnesota and Kansas City. It's good, but it's not bonkers. On top of that, Minnesota's lineup is healthy again and they can be play pretty tough. Kansas City is also 24-20 in their previous 44. Those games are not a cake walk. The Sox will need to take care of business today, but losing is not the end of the world. I think yesterday's loss was the end of the world for the tigers, possibly. If the Sox had lost a game that exact way, people would be jumping off the cliff here. a win today by the Sox would probably be the death blow.

Why is De Aza out again?

QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Sep 14, 2012 -> 01:19 PM) Not really, because if the Sox can't beat a pitcher named Esmerelda with an ERA over 9 with any of their starting pitchers, then they don't deserve to win this division. Again, nobody "deserves" to win any division. The team that ends up with the most wins wins it. St. Louis didn't "deserve" to win the 2006 NLC with 83 wins by your reasoning, either.

Beyond this debate about the meaning of the word momentum, can anyone else agree that not facing Verlander is a better thing anyway?

Why not pitch Quintana on Monday on just one extra day rest? The way he handled the Tigers I'd like to see him again instead. I'd go Sale/Liriano/Peavy/Quintana. Peavy will still be on 5 days of rest, Quintana has an extra couple.

Another reason that I love missing Verlander is because he is way more likely to take us away from their 'pen. We can get into that pen early against anyone else, IMO

Regardless of how you feel about which matchup is better, you have to agree it still takes away momentum from detroit.

QUOTE (justBLAZE @ Sep 13, 2012 -> 08:11 PM) GAME posponed, make up Monday 1:10. This could be awesome. Takes Momentum away from Detroit and we now miss Verlander

If you don't think Verlander's last two starts weren't "big games" when his team is trying desperately to fight its way into first place, regardless of the opponent not being the Sox, you have a serious double-standard. Verlander choked in both.

QUOTE (kitekrazy @ Sep 12, 2012 -> 11:27 PM) Why is it that the Sox fold big time against a division rival this century. Games are rarely close. They didn't fold in 2005. They didn't fold in 2008. They didn't fold in 2000. They still are still well-positioned to win this division. Will they choke? Maybe. Will they win the division? Maybe. I get a feeling if they win it will be met with a grudging "FINALLY" and if they lose it will be met with a self-depricating line of horses***. I get tired of the mentality that all losses are bad losses, teams always own us, and the Sox can do no right, ever. The Sox have been flat out beat by a team with comparable talent the last two nights. Hopefully they reverse that trend tonight.

UPDATED - how about those 11th losses in the stretches, huh? Apr 6 to Apr 23 10-6 Apr 24 to May 7 3-11 May 8 to Jun 1 17-5 Jun 2 to Jun 19 5-11 Jun 20 to Jul 7 12-4 Jul 8 to Jul 30 8-10 Jul 31 to Aug 26 16-8 Aug 27 to Sep 12 5-11 Sep 12 to Sep 17 4-0 I think it's worth noting that our previous three bad stretches ended with either 10 or 11 losses in the stretch.

QUOTE (flavum @ Sep 12, 2012 -> 09:26 AM) It feels like we're being led to the gas chamber. I just don't like how the rest of the Sox and Tigers schedules match up for the Sox. They have that edge, for whatever that's worth. I'm thinking a 2-game lead after this series, we'll lose Game 163 at Detroit. A tie after this series, we're dead meat. 4-game lead--we have a very good chance to win the division. In the end, if the Sox go 5-13 against the Tigers, we deserve to lose and they deserve to win. But if we're playing 19 games a year against these same 4 teams, you better damn well have rosters that can beat these teams if you intend to make the playoffs. I disagree with you. Do the Tigers "deserve to win" the way they've gotten their asses handed to them by the rest of MLB outside the Sox since the break? To paraphrase Hawk, HELL NO. We have an above average team in the worst division in baseball, playing a bunch of other slightly above average, average or slightly below average teams. Is it really that surprising that we would struggle against some teams and handle others, and ultimately put up something in the neighborhood of a .500 record in our division? I don't think so. The fact of the matter is that this team has played well all year in stretches, played poorly in others. A particularly maddening thing every fan of this team tends to overlook is that injuries have absolutely killed us this year. We are playing against Detroit these seven games largely without our best power hitter all year. Konerko was out for a stretch, De Aza was out for a stretch, Youk was gone for a couple games, and now Dunn is out indefinitely. That's not even mentioning Danks, Floyd, Sale's dead arm scares. The fact this team is still in this thing is a bloody miracle.