Greg Hibbard

I just have a feeling that at the end of this year Gordon will be about 3-5 home runs short of where we'd like his total to be at, and about 10 point short of where we'd like his average to be at you know, like he always seems to be.

If this is true, I just don't know how much faith I have left in following professional sports.

QUOTE (tonyho7476 @ Aug 30, 2012 -> 02:13 PM) Konerko has been pathetic since that hot streak at the end of May/early June. His RBIs are sad since then. "pathetic"? .287 in the second half with 7 home runs thus far is "pathetic"? Man.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Aug 29, 2012 -> 01:30 PM) The numbers say he is striking out less the second half. They also say his HR rate is basically the same, just a fraction HIGHER. He is walking less and getting fewer hits. The pre/post all star splits are a bit deceiving because of the first few games after the all star game. Just after the allstar break, he had 11 strikeouts and 3 homers in the first six games. Look at this split: up to July 15th vs. post July 15th, Ks, BBs vs. HRs. Since July 15th game, he has 10 HR, 18 BB and 46K in 152 AB Before that, he had 28 HR, 72 BB and 138K in 302 AB. Seems like a pretty spectacular difference to me. Seems like a trend.

QUOTE (Jerksticks @ Aug 28, 2012 -> 07:17 PM) With all due respect, you know damn well plenty of people rightfully disagree with this. Of course that's why I assume you said it like it was gospel right, to get a jab in? Some people believe there is such a thing as a productive, team-oriented, getting the job done, or sacrificial out. Some people don't and that's ok with me. Why can't some people acknowledge the two sides of this topic? Are you kidding? The guy had TWO INFIELD SINGLES in the past two nights, one which was, at the time, the GO AHEAD RBI. Adam Dunn has been making a s***-ton more contact in the second half than he did in the first, and now people are complaining about his batting average... ...All while STILL saying he's striking out too much! Yes, my comment was obviously a bit facetious but I do think when this guy is going well he's striking out a ton and homering a ton. The guy has struck out 63 times in the last 53 games he's played (195 AB). Given his average number of yearly AB, that would project out to 170 per season - right around where he usually is on his BEST full seasons. Meanwhile, his BA drops, his homers drop. How can this guy win with some people, honestly?

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Aug 28, 2012 -> 12:43 PM) He's swinging hard and his OPS is the second lowest of his career. His lowest was last year when his strikeout rate was the highest of his career. The more often he strikes out, the lower his OPS is. Setting aside last season, which was anomalous in every respect, when he strikes out more he tends to hit more homers.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Aug 28, 2012 -> 12:05 PM) If he made more contact, he'd hit more home runs not less. You can't homer striking out. A ball that clears the fence by 5 feet counts just as much as one that clears it by 100. If he makes solid contact and gets it in the air, its gone even if he doesn't swing as hard as he can. With all due respect, I think this is incorrect. If he changes his proven approach, he'll be less effective as a hitter, in all areas. As I pointed out, when his K rate is highest, his homer and walk rate is highest. Is this a coincidence? I don't think so. My theory is that when he swings for the fences most effectively, he also tends to strike out more because he commits to more pitches earlier. When he's hitting a lot of home runs, he also tends to be more selective with pitches when he's going well, as many hitters are. More K's = more homers. More homers = more walks. Here's hoping he strikes out 300 times. After all, it's just another out.

OPS down to .824 so it's time to bump this thread again. He's down to .204 BA. Here's an interesting stat In April, May and June, Dunn struck out 125 times in 272 ABs In July and August he's struck out 58 times in 179 ABs Seems like he's cutting his strikeout rate down, but his BA is suffering. Also, when his K rate was highest, his walk rate and homer rate were also highest.

What is it going to take for this team to have a DECENT homestand. GOD.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Aug 17, 2012 -> 12:18 PM) He said taken the proposition. As in bet. At least that is how I read it. I meant it as you can have one as long as you take the other. Sorry.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Aug 17, 2012 -> 07:45 AM) I would not have. I would have though if the average was that low, and the K's were that high, that his power numbers would not have recovered either. Out of curiosity, would you have taken Dunn as-is or Dunn with a .244 average and only 25 home runs, 80 RBI, 80 bb and 180 ks? As a side note, I wonder if taking too many walks is killing his batting average.

Is there anyone in this thread, especially the naysayers towards Dunn's average, that wouldn't have taken the following proposition before this season: "Adam Dunn will hit 40 homers, drive in 100 and walk 100 times, but in order to do that, he will hit around .200 and strike out 240 times." I mean....seriously? Dunn is who we thought he is (to paraphrase Denny Green)

QUOTE (CanOfCorn @ Aug 16, 2012 -> 02:25 PM) Don't you DARE mock those 80's teams of Carlos Martinez, Dan Pasqua, Joel Skinner, Scott Fletcher, Steve Sax...BWAHAHAHA... Crap, almost made it through without laughing. Wasn't Sax a 90s Sox? Like 92 or something?

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Aug 16, 2012 -> 01:02 PM) Pennant chase would have been ridiculous to watch too. And 38 HR, 1.217 OPS for Frank Thomas when it ended, he was on pace for 50+. Frank was on pace for 54 homers and like 130+ rbis. It was the most ridiculous offensive season ever, post-ruth and pre-roids.

QUOTE (flavum @ Aug 16, 2012 -> 12:34 PM) And with the 1990 team, they won 94 games and had the second best record in the AL with, for all intents and purposes, a balanced schedule--13 vs West teams, 12 vs East teams. They lose the division by 9 games to the roided A's, and the Red Sox go to the playoffs with 88 wins. Oh yeah, that system was fair. Well, to be fair, in the Wild Card era the 2002 and 2003 Seattle Mariners won 93 games back to back years and didn't make the playoffs. To the point about 20 years - The Sox since the beginning of 1990 are one of three AL teams to win 1900+ games (they have won 1904 games from the beginning of the 1990 season to today). The Yankees have won 2050+ and the Red Sox have won 1970+. Fourth place is the A's, 25 games behind. They've also averaged 86 wins in the 19 complete seasons (not counting 1994, 1995 and 2012) from 1990 on.

The White Sox won the most games of any AL team from 1990-1994.

Why not flip Dunn and AJ? The argument that Stone was making the other night was that this lineup was designed to go LRLRRL to not allow a manager to plug in a single "matchup" reliever for three batters in a row (By flipping Rios and Dunn, you have a situation where 2-3-4 are RRR) I get that, but with AJ batting 3rd and Dunn batting 6th we still would have LRLRRL. Dunn is really in a slump of late and not helping the top of the order enough.

If we ultimately lose the series, of course it's disappointing, but I'm not in the "any loss against the Royals is a bad loss" Typically the best team in baseball plays barely better than .600 ball, and typically the worst still wins more than 1 game in every 3. If we end up winning the series I'm fine with this. More to the point, as long as we are over .500 against the division and at least around .500 against the Tigers, I think we'll be fine.

Oh I see.

Tigers/Yanks series needs to have one less game and their current record is 59-50.

QUOTE (flavum @ Aug 7, 2012 -> 11:58 AM) I'm bumping that 89 for the second wild card up to 90. I think the Sox, Tigers, Angels, Rangers, and Yankees will all win over 90 games. Why do you think the Angels win 90? They've been 9-12 since the break - and they have a brutal last 6 weeks of their schedule. I can't see them going 11 over down that stretch. Every series is either on the road or at home vs. a contender from late August on, except for 1 september series against SEA.

HE HUNG IT HE HURT IT WE NEED IT

QUOTE (YASNY @ Aug 6, 2012 -> 02:34 PM) A very nice, well thought out analysis but I'm going to put it in a different perspective for you. This Tigers are 1.5 games back with 2 months of baseball left. .620 ball or not, they have to make up an average of one measly game a month. Thanks for the kudos. You're right, but here's the thing - they haven't even been able to make up 1 measly game, despite playing BETTER than .630, over the past 45 days.

QUOTE (balfanman @ Aug 6, 2012 -> 01:03 PM) I really don't look at it like one stretch of games or another is key to winning the division. I think that the key is going to be playing a little better than 500 ball against everyone, in other words, just keeping up the same pace. But we must beat Detroit when we play them. Unless we totally start sucking against everyone else the Detroit games are going to decide the division. If we do start sucking against everyone else, the Detroit games won't matter anyway. Whether we are ahead of Detroit when we play them, or behind them, really the only thing that matters is beating Detroit. Well, certainly it helps if you're keeping pace when your main rival is pretty hot, and that was my main point. Kind of quietly (mostly because they had a REALLY hot stretch of 15 games and then lost a few in a row), the Tigers have put together a very nice extended run. The Tigers also finished last year with that remarkable 40-17 clip, which apparently informed everyone to expect it again (the ones that feel the Tigers still prevail especially). I think people are forgetting one crucial detail - The Tigers treaded water at .500 for the better part of three months leading up to that. It's one thing for a team to get really hot over a 57 games stretch like that, after mostly treading water. However, the Tigers have already had a 24-14 stretch, and are still in second place. They have a lot more work to do at a similar clip to take the lead, and potentially put themselves in a position to win this division. The White Sox clearly aren't fading or going away - and are coming up on a stretch where they play most of their games at home. For Tigers fans, it's gotta be coming up on "what do we have to do" - after all, you swept the Sox at home and are 10 over in the last 38 - and you've made up exactly .5 games. It's quite likely that it will take 90, 91, 92 games to win the AL Central. For the Tigers to win 91 games, they would have to go 57-35 from June 22nd through October 1st. The Tigers are a talented team, but I just don't see this roster playing .620 ball for the last 92 games this season. They just aren't capable of being that consistent. The league, as I've pointed out in the above standings, seems to also have more competitive teams than last year.

OAK 24-13 DET 24-14 CHW 23-14 NYY 22-16 SEA 21-17 TEX 19-17 LAA 19-19 MIN 19-20 BOS 18-21 TB 18-21 TOR 17-21 BAL 17-21 KC 14-25 CLE 13-26 This underscores a few things about this season that aren't immediately apparent from the regular standings: 1) The AL is chock full of teams that can play very competitive baseball for an extended stretch of the season. For the last several weeks, it seemed as though the Sox were either: playing a contender, playing a team hovering around .500, or playing a road series at a division opponent that was going to potentially give us trouble. Even though Cleveland has lost 9 in a row, they obviously played very good baseball through the end of July. Even Seattle and Minnesota have been playing better ball of late, as these standings indicate. KC has obviously slipped (they way they usually do midseason), but that's not really a surprise. There really aren't any "easy" stretches to anyone's schedule recently, and the fact that our Sox have gone through it as one of the best teams is truly remarkable. 2) Contrary to what I've heard many pundits say (Detroit just can't seem to get anything really GOING for an extended stretch), the Tigers have been the second best team in the AL since late June, just behind the A's, and our White Sox have hung RIGHT WITH THEM. That's very encouraging for our long term prospects. 3) The A's series is IMO one of the most important series this month. If you asked me to pick 4 games I'd like to win of these 6, I'd choose to lose 2/3 to the Royals and sweep the A's. If we can do some damage to their fragile playoff psyche, we might send them into a tailspin that renders the second WC out of the Tigers/Sox loser. Although we'd certainly prefer to win the division, it would be nice to have that as a safety valve.