Greg Hibbard

Bear with me here - I'm assuming Pierre can still run SOME. This is not a wild assumption, it does appear as though he had a bad April but is back to stealing bases at a reasonable % since then. Certainly he hasn't lost the ability to go 1st to 3rd. Also, this does not come from my recent need to over-defend Pierre's value to the team, but merely a curiosity about statistics. I've seen a lot of asides in threads recently mentioned upgrades to OPS by 100-200 points in using Viciedo over Pierre. Even if I assume that Viciedo will perform at the level he has previously, I think this overstates the replacement value of Viciedo. I think the slugging component of OPS is a misguided component in evaluating a leadoff hitter's worth, and so I think OPS is the wrong statistic to evaluate our leadoff hitter. I think a modified version of OPS might be ok, but the fact of the matter is that slugging has less to do with the leadoff hitter's traditional role than any other position in a lineup card. Sure, when you have Alfonso Soriano, or some other freakish home run-hitting guy leading off, it's ok to use OPS. However, when you have Scott Podsednik, Juan Pierre, or another little guy with no pop and some wheels, is OPS really telling us the whole story? Slugging is predicated on the concept of a home run, triple and double being worth four times, three times and twice as much respectively as a single. In other places, this has already been challenged ad nauseum, but I'd like to add an additional point. In the case of a slow hitter who can't run, its' is not too poor of an assumption to assume a home run is four times as valuable. There is no intangible way for Paul Konerko or Jim Thome to get from 1st base to 3rd on a single to right field. There is no way they will steal bases. They are not candidates for hit and runs. There is no way to distract the pitcher and maybe have a pickoff throw sail wide anyway. In the case of any leadoff hitter who can run, even a little, there is a component in their game that is not measured by OPS. For example, Juan stole 4 bases in May, with 1 CS. 3 of those SB were after singles and 1 was after a BB. Juan had 39 singles and walks combined in May. Slugging measured those exactly as 1 total base, and yet in 5 of those cases, Juan was actually standing on second base with no completed action from the player behind him. Is SLG then accurately measuring these events? Additionally, if a one-out single is hit into right field, while Paul Konerko might be held at 2nd, a speedy leadoff guy might make third and give the team an opportunity at a sac fly. What is the offensive worth of this? I think because of these factors, merely looking at a .650 or .675 or .700 OPS for a player like Pierre/Podsednik is a misuse of the statistic.

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Jul 10, 2011 -> 04:22 PM) A GM who really has no idea wtf he's doing and hasn't since '05. what does "no idea" mean to you?

QUOTE (ParkerBear7 @ Jul 12, 2011 -> 12:44 AM) Warning: Extremely long post! I also do not like how this season has gone thus far but what irks me is fans like you who quit on the team. KW and Ozzie deserve more respect for how they turned the Sox around years ago from a cultural disaster and winning standpoint. What I am not saying here: KW & Oz should not be untouchable and should be accountable for their fair share of mistakes. Obviously, from my perspective they have not yet earned a one way ticket out of town. The truth is this team was in a major slump where losing was the norm year in year out. KW and Ozzie have revitalized this organization. If they didn't you would probably already be a cubs fan (may be a little harsh since I do not know you but it got your attention!). I would argue that Williams and Guillen are actually responsible for having raised all of our expectations to the point that Sox fans no longer except mediocrity. I view this as a good thing. I still believe in the overall philosophy of Jerry, KW, and Ozzie; the vision to re-instill White Sox baseball by bring back a lot of former Sox players from the 80's etc. Heck, they have even recently brought Robin Ventura back in a limited minor league role. I really think this Sox Family philosophy is key to success oh and it would be helpful if the player perform as expected….Rios, Dunn, Bacon….et al!!! Kenny Williams: Sure, I do not always agree with KW roster moves (feel he has bit of a gambling problem that only worsened after having much luck in 2005) and it is not coincidental that the Sox are ALL IN! Anyone looking at his trade history understand why this is a fitting marketing slogan. But know this; Kenny Williams is a very competitive GM that wants to win it all every year but that is what I want in a GM. I too wish KW would exercise some restraints before trading away some of the young guys but other than lets say Chris Young and Daniel Hudson which trades have really come back to haunt the Sox? I can't think of many. Ozzie Guillen: Now let me talk about the man you most want gone: Ozzie. I love Ozzie’s fire and passion for the game and how he is not afraid to mix it up. Yes, I also agree that his rants grow old from time to time. Question: is it hypocritical if Sox fans who also are Bears fan could love this same passion and fire that we all loved in Coach Ditka who happened to be the last famous Head Coach to win a major championship before the Black Hawks? Yes, Ditka finally wore out his welcome with management and I am not saying Ozzie will not eventually do the same. I think managing baseball has to be the hardest sport too manager as the season is so long with fewest playoff spots. Not an excuse but a reality of baseballs current format. Now it is impossible for me to follow the sox as close as when I lived in Chicago but your demand for Ozzie to be fired is not going to solve the problem. Firing Ozzie will only accomplish one thing, last place and a lame duck manager such like past managers like Terry "boomer" Bevington, Jerry Manual, Gene Lamont etc. Here is an alternative for your axe to grind: Why not give credit where credit is due...the players deserve credit for how this season has gone so far due to performance. Here is the good news: As bad as this team has played the first half, they are only a few games back and still have a chance. Go Sox! I agree with a lot of this. A lot of people who say Williams hasn't done jack s*** since '05 conveniently forget pieces like Quentin, Humber, Floyd and Danks.

Call me stupid or easily sated, but I was somehow conditioned to enjoy division titles for what they are.

QUOTE (Milkman delivers @ Jul 11, 2011 -> 03:11 PM) I'm of the opinion that Ozzie's act is done here and that nothing is going to change that. I understand that. If he figures out a way to win this division with the state that the team is currently in, it would be a miracle that would warrant future consideration, as much as that pains you

Winning the division would require us figuring out a way to beat the Twins. Provided Ozzie could fanagle that, I think there would be SOME reason for optimism going forward.

Scott Ruffcorn B- Carlos Martinez A Timo Perez C+ Mike LaValliere B+ Donn Pall A+ Carlos Castillo F

I think Ozzie should get until the end of this season and should be fired if this team does not make the playoffs. I think he has earned that with the success he has had. If the team makes the playoffs, Ozzie should stay, even if it's an 83-79 playoff team that gets swept. It would be very hard to fire a manager who had won 3 division titles in 8 seasons. I think his individual successes in motivating players and intangibles have been underemphasized in light on focusing on only the bad in-game decisions, and it's been amplified this season to the nth degree. I agree that the players have underperformed and that has been the crucial problem.

QUOTE (kwolf68 @ Jul 11, 2011 -> 09:34 AM) Pierre is finished as a viable leadoff hitter...his OBP and OPS are as usual meager, but now he is stealing bases at a 55% clip. But of course, he makes up for it by not being able to throw a baseball further than 20 feet. OBP is "as usual meager"....what exactly is a good OBP, in your opinion? Is .350 the last 2.5 months not good enough? Pierre has been offensively performing at right around his career numbers since May 1st (.281/.348/.326/.674), which is now nearly 300 PAs. He has been stealing bases at about the right percentage since then, too (73% - 8 for 11). More importantly, he has been his most hottest most recently. If you never liked the acquisition and were always against him, that's one thing, but he's doing what he was he was brought in here for offensively for the last 2.5 months. Swapping him out for a dude with 100 major league PAs seems silly at this point.

For those that 1) want Ozzie fired before the season ends 2) think there's a very slim or no chance to win this year anyway what is the point of firing Ozzie now, rather than waiting until after the season? if Jerry/Kenny know they are firing him, they are already looking. Joey Cora or Harold Baines running this team helps no one and doesn't accomplish anything. I think there is still a 10% chance this team has a run in them with Ozzie, but a 0% chance if you fire Ozzie.

Until the last five days, I thought there would be something would click at some point, but now I think it's very likely that they will play horribly post-break, get to 10 under, and then win 28 of their last 45 to make it look "respectable".

Weren't a bunch of people saying they never wanted to see beckham bunt again? Glad they won. Wish people could find something positive.

QUOTE (Stan Bahnsen @ Jul 9, 2011 -> 11:28 AM) Should be, yes, but that wouldn't allow the cherry-picking that fuels these inane debates. "few years" means since may 20th 2009, and somehow taking a relatively small portion of total games against an opponent instead of the total isn't "cherry picking"? A lot of people use the sample size argument when it's convenient to them.

QUOTE (BigSqwert @ Jul 8, 2011 -> 11:57 AM) I personally don't think 93 games is a small sample size. When an 8-game swing over two years moves it from being "totally unacceptable" to "totally acceptable", it is. If the Sox go 36-36 in 10 (4 games better), and 11-10 in 11 (4 games better) we aren't even having this conversation. Also a 93-game segment put into context of 432 other games against the division is relatively small.

QUOTE (PlaySumFnJurny @ Jul 8, 2011 -> 11:43 AM) Since winning the division in 2008, the White Sox record against AL Central teams is: 2009 34 - 38 .472 2010 32 - 40 .444 2011 7 - 14 .333 That's a very negative trend. In 09 a just under .500 team went just under .500 against its division. '10 and '11 are atrocious, but also a relatively small sample size, in my opinion.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jul 8, 2011 -> 11:29 AM) 20 games? It's 9-27 since May 20th, 2009. I'm not even questioning whether Guillen was a good manager in those years (2004-2008). The question has now turned to what has happened to him as a manager since then, and what can (or can't) be done about it. Not only Guillen, but also Williams and the entire minor league system. If we look at Detroit's record against the Sox from 2006-2008, we see a team with a .538 average winning percentage over those three seasons (87 win average) go 20-35 (.364) against the White Sox. What happened to their manager over those three years?

My main point is that the White Sox, as constructed by Kenny Williams and as managed by Ozzie Guillen, have beaten the Twins at times, something Wannstedt nor Cooper never consistently did against their rivals. If you think "lately" is a good enough sample size, I salute you. I think it's a bad stretch of 17 games (they went 3-3 first six games of '10. The bad stretch is 2-10 the rest of the way, now 0-5), which happens to every franchise against their rival at some point. Yes, it will probably cost one or both their jobs. It does not speak to their overall performance.

f*** the Twins.

btw, removing 05 and 06, Guillen is still 6 games over .500 against the Central. Surprised?

Caulfield, Do you really think the Twins are as bad as their record? Do you really think the Tribe are as good as their record? Ozzie was over .500 against the central in 2007, despite being 18 games under .500 overall. He also beat the Central in 08, and was 4 under in 09 when the team was....4 under overall. They'd cut payroll and were expected to be mediocre that season. The original poster made comments likening Wannstedt's performance against the packers to Guillen's OVERALL performance. Other than '10 and '11 thus far, Guillen's been right where you'd expect him to be record-wise against his very competitive, usually quite good, fiercest division rival during his tenure as White Sox manager.

Ozzie Guillen is .537 vs. the Central in his career, and has an overall winning percentage of .525. He's been bad since 09, but he crushed the Central the first 5 years he managed. The Twins will not be described as a sub-.500 team for much longer. EDIT: miscalculated.

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Jul 7, 2011 -> 08:13 PM) He didn't say anything that was incorrect. Juan has had a nice 10 games. Not surprising. Even bad players will have a nice streak here and there when they play EVERY single day NO MATTER how poorly they're performing. Juan has had a relatively nice 2+ months.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jul 7, 2011 -> 08:12 PM) Hibbard, do you and greg have a "secret PM" agreement to defend Juan Pierre? Can I join your cabal, just for fun? I was one of Juan's biggest critics in April. There's really nothing offensively wrong with what he's done since May 1st.

QUOTE (whitesoxbrian @ Jul 7, 2011 -> 08:09 PM) The Sox have 5 of the 70 worst players in baseball in the lineup today: Teahen, Pierre, Rios, Dunn, and Vizquel. Stay hot, KW. I concur. If Juan was any good, he'd be 3 for 2.

Quick, someone please calculate the ISO on those two Pierre singles