QUOTE (ScottyDo @ Apr 29, 2014 -> 06:37 PM)
I like this article on the topic of BABIP and its components.
Line drives fall for hits ~70% of the time while fly balls fall roughly 15% of the time. Given that Flowers is #4 in LD% among players with ≥ 80 PAs and 14th lowest in FB%, I'd say his BABIP makes a fair amount of sense. Now, you could consider those batted ball numbers luck, but wouldn't you expect that a player playing well would hit a high proportion of line drives? Isn't it also true that a player hitting well must inherently have a high BABIP? After all, unless you have monster HR numbers and never strike out, your high average will be accompanied by an even higher BABIP.
All that said, Flowers will come down to earth, because he's probably not all of the sudden a prolific line drive hitter. If he somehow is, his BABIP will stay somewhat high and it won't just be luck.
Good post Scottydo