bighurt574

If the reports are true that Philly is the only team talking about a long term deal, then they’re basically bidding against themselves. I guess I could see the Sox (and Boras) keeping in touch in case Philly is well aware they’re bidding against themselves and holding back.

And if he hits his potential, that’s a pretty key piece right there.

If Eloy turns into a 40 HR guy with a solid OBP, he’ll be a centerpiece regardless of what WAR says about his defense.

The hold up on years 9 and 10 is almost certainly an owner issue, not a GM issue. No GM has that much job security. Panicking and over paying for Harper would only compound the mistake, however. If they’re willing to top $300M, they should have given it to Machado, he was the better bet.

Didn’t say it was better than SD. Wish they would have just guaranteed it. Or at least guaranteed a 9th year to make it a more interesting choice.

That's actually a pretty solid offer, 550 PA's is easy enough if he's reasonably healthy. But I still hate to lose a guy over that. Wish we would have just guaranteed 10 years.

Think we can package Alonso and Jay to SD for a lottery ticket?

If you're Machado's agent, I'd think you'd still go back to the Sox in that scenario to see if we were bluffing. If he didn't, he must have been really, really confident the price was out of our league, which probably means our offer was nowhere close.

I'd be shocked if we weren't given a chance to top it unless he just wasn't all that interested in playing here. Even if SDG made it an exploding offer, it's not that hard to shoot off a quick text.

Who knows if matching would have gotten it done. SDG could have still upped its offer too, in theory. I'd love to hear the details of whatever our latest offer was.

Even if Hector's source is Manny himself, with at least one newer team like the Padres jumping in, I have no idea how Hector would even know who's ultimately going to pony up the most dough. It's not like he's saying the White Sox are a lifelong dream and Manny will take a discount to play here.

It sounded like the SS stuff was largely an attempt to increase his value. If the top bidder wants him at 3B, he’ll be at 3B. I believe he’s already signaled that, if reports are accurate at least.

A Padres infield with Machado and Tatis for 6+ years would be hard to watch....

You could probably write that same article about Harper wanting Machado to sign first, which is why neither has signed.

That too.

Insurers provide that kind of coverage for companies all the time. PG&E had $1.4 billion in wildfire coverage (not enough to protect it from bankruptcy). For a policy of that size, you could always have some sort of syndicate or layered coverage to spread the risk around some more. No idea what a policy like that would cost. Obviously the odds of a truly career ending injury are low.

If that were the only holdup, they could still do a long term, somewhat backloaded contract now, right?

One interesting factor is that you have MLB and the union talking about some mid-CBA changes that the union certainly hopes will juice the FA market a little. I’m not sure that any of the proposed changes that have been publicly reported are material enough to make a difference on a huge contract like Machado and Harper want, but they may well want to give it another run in a year or two. I’d still be surprised if either signs a 1 year deal though. If I were them, I’d take the best long term deal I can get but push for an opt out by Year 3 at the latest. I wouldn’t be surprised if the stalemate goes into the regular season.

Without Machado or Harper, we're still a year or two away, it's really about developing the current guys anyway. We were never going to win the offseason unless we made a big splash.

Lozano would almost certainly play the offers against each other, even if he doesn't say where the offer is from. It would be malpractice not to, unless Manny just prefers the "mystery team," money aside. But even then, you'd try to spark a bidding war to drive the price up.

Doesn’t really make sense for the Sox. You’re paying him $40m/year while you’re still ramping up from rebuild mode then he almost certainly opt outs. He’s not playing for $20m/year in his prime.

We can't really afford to think that way. If we can land Machado at a price we're willing to pay, you do it. Especially with Boras likely to drag Harper out for a while.

Yep. It would be pretty surprising if hard numbers haven't been exchanged at this point.

That’s where opt outs kick in. If I’m Harper or Machado negotiating with the Sox, I’d want one a few years in if the rebuild isn’t going well and another with a few years left to hit the market early if I’m still performing at a high level.

Yeah, there may not be much left at that point, though they could also try to find another Nova on the trade market.