bighurt574

Right, I believe the risk is taken into account, but it still makes the prospect projections a lot more volatile than a guy with a five-year MLB track record. A rebuilding team can afford to take on that volatility a lot more than a team planning to contend the next few years.

QUOTE (steveno89 @ Dec 16, 2016 -> 11:06 AM) Three 2 WAR players do not equal the value of one 6 WAR player, as 6 WAR players are vastly harder to find. A good point, especially for a deep organization like Houston with plenty of other options to plug in to the lineup. For the Sox the past few years, three 2 WAR players and one 6 WAR player might have been closer to equal. Position players at least.

Match? For Robertson it can't be that tough to find an intriguing prospect or two. We're not talking about a Q deal here.

The teams that would be interested in Robertson (e.g., Washington) aren't going to really care about the $$$ on his deal to give up a bigger return if the Sox eat some of it.

Seriously, imagine Jones' value if he puts up similar numbers as a closer with his contract.

If Robertson can show that he's still his old self, he could easily net a top-50 prospect at the deadline with 1.5 years of control at a reasonable enough contract. He wasn't even that bad last year, he just needs to get the walks down. On the flip side, if we can find a taker for Robertson now, we can try to build Jones' value as a closer.

The regular season value of Sale vs. Q isn't all that different with Q's extra year of control, but the thought of having Sale in your rotation for the postseason is really what makes GM drool and offer up an "untouchable" prospect. Especially if you're already a playoff team looking for that "final piece." In a Q for Bregman swap, if Houston would even do it, you're not going to get much else. Maybe an extra low level prospect or two.

The other problem with ERA and closers is that with only ~60-70 innings pitched, one bad outing or two (perhaps aided by shoddy fielding) can really inflate the thing. With a starter, if you get rocked over say 3 innings, you can largely work that off with a few quality starts. As a closer, you may need a few months.

We'd be fortunate to get a top 100 prospect for Robertson. They're waiting for Jansen to sign so hopefully whoever loses out antes up. Robertson probably isn't a bad candidate to hold until the trade deadline and hope for a rebound. If he comes out strong, he could really help his value.

QUOTE (OmarComing25 @ Dec 7, 2016 -> 10:46 AM) I think the Nationals makes less sense than the Astros. Their 2-year window means Quintana's extra year of control isn't as valuable to them. Nationals also have a pretty solid/deep rotation already. I get their interest in Sale, but I'm not sure they'd raid the farm for Quintana. Seems like if you're already a playoff team (e.g., Boston, Washington), Sale is the guy you want for October. If you're not already a playoff team, Quintana might make more sense.

QUOTE (illinilaw08 @ Dec 7, 2016 -> 11:15 AM) I don't see where Desmond has ever played 1B. Rockies have a surplus of OF, and, other than 1B, their IF is set. I don't know what they are thinking, but I wouldn't be overly surprised to see them try to move Blackmon somewhere and then try to make a push for Abreu. They would be an interesting landing spot for Q as well, and definitely have the prospects to get it done. I don't know if it's wise, but reports are that they signed him largely to play 1B.

I mentioned Soler for Robertson a few days back. Looks like the Cubs shot a little higher.

If they signed Desmond to play 1B, they'e presumably out on Abreu.

QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Dec 7, 2016 -> 01:03 AM) Greg, it took three years of tearing it down for the Cubs to win it all. That's no guarantee for the Sox, but you do understand that rebuilding means get bad really fast, then rebound, right? The first year of tanking got them Kris Bryant, the next got them Schwarber. That also requires drafting well with those picks and a little bit of luck (imagine if Houston takes Bryant over Appel, or if you have top picks in weak drafts). Look how long it took KC to get it right.

QUOTE (bmags @ Dec 6, 2016 -> 04:36 PM) No idea if that is latest up to date but would not be shocked if latest AFL run will lead to top 20 prospects for Kopech in the March rankings. I think they just bumped him a few dozen spots. He was in the 60s when I looked after the trade went down. No one else seems to have moved much though. Weird.

QUOTE (Frank_Thomas35 @ Dec 6, 2016 -> 04:08 PM) Updated prospect rankings: "MLB.com 2016 Prospect Watch | MLB.com" via http://TeamStre.am by Bleacher Report http://teamstre.am/1Q5jywD Moncada #1, Kopech #30,

Hopefully we also take advantage of our (potentially high) draft picks the next few years.

QUOTE (daa84 @ Dec 6, 2016 -> 04:16 PM) the other thing to consider is how insanely low our payroll is going to be in a year Bryce Harper here we come!

Sounds like he has a good Boston source, nailing their two deals today. May not help elsewhere.

QUOTE (chw42 @ Dec 6, 2016 -> 02:25 PM) We should just forget about 2012. And also, the #2 prospects are actually better than the #1s lol With Buxton listed 3 times, yeah.

Pretty sure Boston has already paid Moncada a big chunk of that -- he doesn't have $31.5 million outstanding. If his signing bonus was spread out over 3 years, he'd have around $10 million outstanding going into year three, if I'm doing the math right.

QUOTE (2005thxfrthmmrs @ Dec 6, 2016 -> 01:41 PM) This one actually hurts more for Boston, the total cost for Sale might be much higher than the $40 M surface value. Boston Sports Info ‏@bostonsportsinf 1h1 hour ago Remember..remember to add the $63 million it cost Sox to sign Yoan to the assets to get Chris Sale It's a sunk cost, but I suppose if you roll that investment into Sale, Boston is basically paying Sale $30-35 million a year for 3 years (about $20 million/year on top of his current salary).

The deal obviously largely comes down to whether Moncada pans out. Even if he's a 3-4 WAR player under team control for 6 years (not crazy at a premium position like 2B or 3B), that's a decent baseline.

QUOTE (Lemon_44 @ Dec 6, 2016 -> 01:35 PM) I'm not saying that. He didn't touch his major league roster and landed the best LH in the American League. That's a steal. Well, that's what you can do with a farm system with the #1, #5, #16, #30, and #67 prospects in baseball, per MLB.com. I believe all those guys except #30 (Groome) pre-dated his tenure.

QUOTE (Lemon_44 @ Dec 6, 2016 -> 01:32 PM) Dombrowski probably just wrapped up Executive of the Year Award. He gets a sure fire Cy Young candidate and doesn't give up one guy from his major league roster. So how about giving the credit to the guys who actually built up Boston's farm system? DD was handed plenty to work with.