bighurt574

QUOTE (Greg Hibbard @ Aug 4, 2010 -> 02:17 PM) If either team wins game 1, there is a 50% chance the same team wins game 2 there is a 50% chance the other team wins game 2 therefore, after game 1 is concluded, there should be close to a 50/50 chance either team wins game 2, if their skill level is relatively similar. That's exactly right. This isn't that complicated. Whichever team wins game 1, that team should have a 50% chance of winning game 2, assuming the teams are roughly equal (it's just like flipping a coin, you flip one time, it's 50/50 heads or tails, if you flip a second time, it's 50/50 heads or tails). Yet, that team only wins game 2 26% of the time, about half as often as you'd expect. There's clearly some external factor(s) at work skewing the odds.

That really is a huge statistical variation from what you'd expect. Put another way, a team that wins game 1 only wins game 2 25% of the time. You'd expect around 50%, maybe even a bit higher if one team is better than the other. I have a hard time believing mindset accounts for all of that, but I can't think of anything else. Maybe the team that wins game 1 is more likely to rest some regulars in game 2? Is there any difference between day-night doubleheaders and where one game immediately follows the next?

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 30, 2010 -> 01:54 PM) Sound like the Victor Zambrano for Scott Kazmir deal to anyone else? Zambrano was 29 at the time, Jackson is 26, and IIRC Kazmir was a much higher rated prospect (with more upside) than Hudson. I think the Sox are intrigued by Jackson's stuff, some big league experience, while still being pretty young.

QUOTE (JoeCoolMan24 @ Jul 30, 2010 -> 01:38 PM) A friend of mine on Facebook who used to work for ESPN seems pretty confident that deal is in place for Jackson + prospects for Dunn, and we are just waiting on Nats to sign off on it. Is a deal really "in place" if the Nats haven't agreed to it?

Is the key "by tonight"? Not sure who could be here that quickly.

QUOTE (thedoctor @ Jul 29, 2010 -> 12:07 PM) under that scenario it doesn't really matter where they trade him, sox or cardinals. but if you are factoring in the cub fanbase's desire to see a team fail the cardinals>>>>>>white sox. It could. If the Cubs land a prospect who makes it to the majors, that's a guy they're taking away from the Cards for several years. I doubt many Cubs fans would get that worked up about a Lilly to the Cardinals trade.

QUOTE (chw42 @ Jul 29, 2010 -> 11:36 AM) Hendry would much rather trade to the Sox than to the Cardinals. Assuming some level of rationality (maybe a mistake), isn't it better for the Cubs to trade Lilly to the Cardinals at this point? Lilly is only under contract for this year, when the Cubs are out of it anyway. They can grab a prospect or two from the Cardinals, potentially coming out ahead after this year. I don't see much downside to a trade within the division in that scenario.

QUOTE (Rowand44 @ Jul 27, 2010 -> 04:23 PM) The only way Huddy is getting traded is if we have another deal to bring a sp over here. Agree. And even if we keep Hudson, Kenny might still deal for a SP with Hudson's struggles.

QUOTE (Mattchoo @ Jul 26, 2010 -> 12:27 PM) Can we keep Arizona in the mix for a three team deal, but instead have them send Edwin Jackson to Milw so we can get Fielder. I think I'm the only Sox fan that doesn't want the big donkey. Obviously he is an upgrade over what we currently have; I would just rather have Prince over him. Just about every Sox fan would rather have Fielder. He'd be a LOT more expensive though, since he's under team control next year.

I'd take Lilly in a pure salary dump trade, but I wouldn't give up any decent prospects to get him.

QUOTE (JoeCoolMan24 @ Jul 9, 2010 -> 03:54 PM) I REALLY hope he goes to the Rangers. I say this because the Twins have 7 games left w/ the Rangers, the Tigers have 5 games left, and the Sox are DONE with them. The only time the Sox might have to see them is in the playoffs. And we have 2 series coming up against the hopefully Lee-less Mariners. Nice.

Was just looking at the Rangers' prospect rankings at Baseball America, their top prospects each year have had a crazy success rate: 2001 Carlos Pena, 1b Rays 2002 Hank Blalock, 3b Rangers 2003 Mark Teixeira, 3b Yankees 2004 Adrian Gonzalez, 1b Padres 2005 Thomas Diamond, rhp Cubs 2006 Edinson Volquez, rhp Reds 2007 John Danks, lhp White Sox 2008 Elvis Andrus, ss Rangers 2009 Neftali Feliz, rhp Rangers http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prosp...010/269402.html

QUOTE (pktmotion @ Jul 9, 2010 -> 01:23 PM) Wow so it looks like Jesus Montero-David Adams-Zach McAllister for Cliff Lee. We could have gotten Lee for Flowers-Retherford-Torres. Unbelievable. I don't get surprised when the Yankees sign top guys in FA, but when they dupe teams into these trades; it's pretty evident how good their front office is. You're a fool if you really think that a Flowers/Retherford/Torres package would even get the M's attention. Montero is a top 5 prospect in all of baseball. We don't even have anyone like that in our system, unless you want to talk about Beckham.

There's obviously a limited # of "reservations" available for each game. I imagine these just come out of the tickets that would go towards the public sale. Smart move by MLB. They make extra money not only for "reservations" on playoff teams, but also on all the teams that don't even make the playoffs. I'm tempted to fork over $35 for a ALCS and WS reservation.

We're right in the thick of it now. We just need to keep winning series and wait for some head-to-head games against the Twins and Tigers.

We've won 9 in a row and 13 of 14. I'll wait til we lose a few to suggest big changes.

He looked awful in the field yesterday. Even that bases-loaded popup he caught was an adventure.

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ May 27, 2010 -> 01:17 PM) MLB is investigating the incident according to ESPN. Not that it matters, umpires punishments and fines are never reported, so we will never know if anything happens. Per the Tribune and Yahoo Sports, "MLB Bringing the Hammer Down on Joe West" http://www.chicagobreakingsports.com/2010/...mpire-west.html

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ May 24, 2010 -> 07:58 AM) The Indians are without Sizemore and Cabrera. If we can't take 2 of 3 in this series, with D1, Peavy, and Buehrle on the mound, there's something seriously wrong. Sadly, 2/3 doesn't even do all that much, especially with 4 @TB next. If we're going to make any noise, this is really a series we need to sweep.

Standing O for sure. He's only booed in CLE because he chose to leave for more money in free agency. That's not the case here, and even if it was, I'd like to think SOX fans are more appreciative than CLE fans.

Spring Training doesn't always mean much, but all things being equal, I'd sure rather have a guy go into Opening Day on a hot streak as opposed to a cold streak.

Porcello is 21 years old. He's extremely young. It seems reasonable to expect some improvement from last year's peripherals. But I'm not sure how any projection really accounts for that. The only data on Porcello is his 20-year-old rookie season, and after that, there can't be a whole lot of data on how such a young pitcher typically progresses in his second year. It's a crap shoot, if you ask me.

I got all 3 Cubs/Sox games through the pre-sale. Sure, it's a little pricey, but it was pretty easy getting tickets and it's a lot cheaper than going through a scalper. There's probably still some tickets left.

QUOTE (jenks45monster @ Dec 28, 2009 -> 04:47 PM) Carter vs. Quentin is a good argument, IMO. It's a good argument in a year if Quentin struggles with injuries again and Carter has a solid major-league debut. Until then, it's a pretty silly question. And as far as whether it was a good trade, it's not just about "right now and in the future." Without that trade, we're almost certainly not 2008 AL Central champs.

QUOTE (GREEDY @ Dec 21, 2009 -> 10:40 AM) #3 (The terrible reason) When the news of Rios’ being claimed by the White Sox first leaked, Scott Podsednik was smack dab in the midst of picking up a clutch hit every time he walked into the batter’s box. I wondered if Kenny found himself in a situation where he felt he wouldn’t have any choice but to resign Pods this offseason, and realized that he would need to find a CF that had some pop to make up for starting a horrible defensive corner outfielder, that slapped at the ball like a grandma in a wiffle ball game. Well if this was the plan, it sure seems to have backfired; because Williams is going to upset the average fan by not bringing back their favorite grinder; and in turn Kenny has replaced Podsednik with a faster, healthier, and slightly better anti-grinder in Juan Pierre. Juan Pierre is definitely an upgrade both offensively and defensively in left field, but his acquisition certainly does not help shed any light on why Alex Rios and his sixty million came to US Cellular Field. (1) Seems to be a bit of a stretch for the supposed "plan." Of course Kenny had a choice whether to resign Pods, and he elected not to. (2) If you're right, and Pierre is "an upgrade both offensively and defensively in left field" over Pods, how is that a backfire?