bighurt574

If he can pass a physical, they should have just offered him the QO, and if he accepts, trade him if you don't really want him. Basically the same thing they're doing by picking up Kimbrel's option. Heck, Rodon on a QO almost certainly has more excess value than Kimbrel's option year (again, assuming he can pass a physical). Fangraphs, MLBTR, and ESPN are all projecting Rodon to top a QO in free agency.

Meh, even if he gets you 3 WAR (vs. 5 WAR this past year), it's worth the money, which isn't a crazy bet. But yeah, the Sox must not feel too good about his arm.

I hope Abreu has a few productive years left in him but this team is too good to keep him around just for sentimentality reasons. That said, his trade value isn’t much either. He’s clearly back next year and then they can reevaluate what sort of contract to offer him after that.

I have a hard time seeing any excess value on that contract. $16M is elite closer money and it's a mighty big gamble to count on Kimbrel still being an elite closer. Another team would have to be pretty desperate to give up much of anything, especially in the offseason when you have your pick of FA relievers. Though I admittedly haven't studied who else is out there.

Yeah, if I'm the Astros, I'd pitch McCullers on normal rest in G4 too. You can't hold back for a G5. That said, I don't think it's terrible for the Sox either.

Same here. When we named him our Game 1 starter, I didn't realize how much he'd struggled against HOU. Last handful of starts (going back to his time w/ TEX too): 10/7/21 - 3.2 IP, 5 ER 6/19/21 - 4 IP, 6 ER 9/24/20 - 5.2 IP, 9 ER 9/3/20 - 6 IP, 6 ER I'm fine not seeing Lynn again in the ALDS. Save him for Game 1 in the ALCS if we advance.

Meh, I kind of like throwing it out there. HOU has plenty of fire already. Maybe it will throw them off.

No doubt. Just trying to understand the (crappy) thought process. That’s all I can come up with. Though I wouldn’t think pitching a few outs on Friday would preclude 2-3 innings on Monday anyway.

I wonder if they’re planning on starting Kopech in Game 4 (if we get there). That’s really the only way not using him today makes any sense. (And even then he probably still could have gone an inning.)

You make your own breaks. For example, their RF made a great catch on Grandal’s ball, ours got all turned around and cost us a few runs. Not sure which play was more difficult but they were seemingly pretty similar and almost the difference in the game right there. And all the hits they robbed were in part due to good positioning by them to give them a chance.

I was surprised we didn’t see Kopech. Even if we’re counting on him for several innings in Games 3 or 4, with the day off tomorrow, I’m not sure why he couldn’t pitch an inning today. The biggest mistake was leaving Giolito in as long as he did, even if you’re going to bring in Crochet. One base runner max in the 5th and he should have been pulled.

I like Romy over Mendick in the long run, but do you really want a guy on your playoff roster with 32 MLB at bats?

I'd trust Ruiz over Kuechel if we need an inning somewhere. If we need a couple innings in a game that's still winnable, and Lopez and Kopech have already been used (say deep extra innings), we'd probably just roll with one of the other starters anyway before ever going to Kuechel.

His salary is a sunk cost. It's gone. He's not on the roster because there's no scenario where you'd want him on the mound. He didn't make the cut as a starter and he's not better than any of our reliever options.

Yeah, with Lynn pitching last Friday and Giolito on Saturday, I sort of figured Lynn would get the nod for Game 1, though they obviously could have still flipped it and had Giolito pitch 5 days later.

Even if it's "just" the flu the last thing you want is for him to get everybody else sick.

Maybe. Or maybe two starting staffs that had pretty identical ERAs over 162 games aren’t all that different (Sox finished #4 in MLB at 3.57 and Hou #5 at 3.60). And yes, I know Kuechel inflated the Sox numbers. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2021&month=0&season1=2021&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2021-01-01&enddate=2021-12-31&sort=16,a

It's a little hard to say before the match-ups are announced, but to take the "backend type" in Valdez, you're still talking about a guy with a 3.18 ERA and 3.58 xFIP. With the natural regression we've seen from Lynn in the second half (3.66 ERA), Giolito/Lynn and McCullers/Garcia is really a wash in my book. Rodon/Valdez, if that's the matchup, is a wash in my book. Cease is really our one edge there. Like I said, the starting pitching isn't all that different.

The Rodon who is going to get some Cy Young votes is long gone. I don't care about Odorizzi, or Greinke, though they may prove useful for HOU at some point. McCullers, Garcia, Urquidy, and Valdez is a pretty solid top 4, and they've all given us some fits this year. I saw the stat above that our pitching has been a half run better than HOU's over the past month, but they seemingly had a tougher schedule too, with a bunch of games against SEA, OAK, and TB. So take from that what you will.

Not really. Look at the numbers. They've having strong years, including some nice outings against us. If Rodon was healthy, maybe.

I'm not so sure we have the edge in starting pitching. It's at least a push.

I’m guessing Timmons reported something. Otherwise why would MLB single out Anderson based on the video?

I was sort of hoping we'd get healthy in time to build a little momentum before the playoffs started, but that's looking pretty unlikely. Oh well.

With 3-4 prior seasons similar to his rookie year, he’s at least in the conversation. And he was a monster in Cuba those years. But who knows.

$80m/4 years seems reasonable, though Boras will probably find somebody to top that. I guess the interesting thing will be if Carlos sort of fizzles out from here. He can make himself a lot of money with a strong finish.