NorthSideSox72

Check Iowa's per capita curve versus MInnesota, their next door neighbor in a similar climate. Now look starting a few days after MN put in place their sheltering orders while Iowa did not. It's quite clear. Iowa is still accelerating at a high pace, MN has leveled.

You can keep saying this - that Biden "molests children" - and there is not a shred of evidence it's true. I've even watched the (creatively edited) videos you are referring to, because some of my Trump-supporting family got into it with me. One can say, at very worst, that he was too eager to put arms around them or speak close to their ears, for someone they didn't know. There is just nothing there. The only people outraged now, or who will be outraged later, by those videos, are people already bound and determined to support Trump. Which make is a non-issue for the election. Have you see the comparison of per capita curves for Iowa and Minnesota? They were identical up until the day that MN (and other states) put in place more stringent controls. They are neighbor states with similar cross-sections, especially if you take Minneapolis out of the equation. And starting within a few days of MN's order and Iowa's decision not to lock down, Iowa's curve skyrocketed in comparison in MN. And MN is slightly denser in population so all else equal they SHOULD have been hit harder. It's one of the best, clearest examples of how the shelter in place orders work.

That seems highly unlikely to me. They can open up in July and deal with that. There are four pretty clear reasons they are doing it. One, because they've hooked themselves to Trump's horse train. Two, they fear the backlash of the Trump followers if they don't do this. Three, they want to do everything possible to keep unemployment payments lower. And four, they all have rich friends in business who they want to help, so that they can rely on those rich benefactors come election time. I have no idea the balance of each of the four things, for each given governor, but those I believe are the main drivers.

At least as far as Illinois goes, the fact that the testing numbers have gone up so much lately and are getting a lot closer to goal, combined with the effective curve-flattening to avoid overwhelming the health system, and increased capacity added, plus the beginnings of a decent tracing system in the state... I am feeling like I can see a faint light at the end of the tunnel for the first time. Not nearly there yet, but seems like the progress is really where it should be. If the testing can continue building (which I think it will), and we can get some more effective treatments in place for before the vaccine is out there, I think we can see Illinois at least considering a broader re-opening in the June and July period (bit by bit, not all at once of course). There would have to be a "new normal" on some behaviors for people, but economically and in terms of overall virus control, there are decent signs. The potential wrench in the works is just how much bounce-back might occur from the idiotic governors of those 8 to 10 states (which includes Iowa and Missouri right next door) who are hell-bent on opening up too early and/or never closed down enough (have you see Iowa's curve lately?). That's my biggest current worry.

Entirely different scenario. There you have election laws separate and complicating the situation, a governor who asked the legislature to stop it because they have statutory authority to do so, and then an order the governor gave that he himself previously said wasn't legally patent. In fact it's kind of a mirror of the same case, except here the law clearly protects the governor, as opposed to with the election it being delineated to the legislature.

Oh there is no question the orders are lawful and legal. Barr's statement was pure bluster to help out Trump. Nothing burger. But in Wisconsin, as I pointed out, the legislature COULD override the governor if they had the votes. The fact that they aren't going that way, and instead are filing suit, tells me they don't have the votes. So it's a minority group making a whole lot of noise when they can't do things they want. I can't see anyway the courts override the governor in this case.

Since this would seem to come around to the courts, here are the relevant statutes at play.... First, the statute that gives the WI Governor authority to declare a public health emergency: 323.10  Declaration by governor. The governor may issue an executive order declaring a state of emergency for the state or any portion of the state if he or she determines that an emergency resulting from a disaster or the imminent threat of a disaster exists. If the governor determines that a public health emergency exists, he or she may issue an executive order declaring a state of emergency related to public health for the state or any portion of the state and may designate the department of health services as the lead state agency to respond to that emergency. If the governor determines that the emergency is related to computer or telecommunication systems, he or she may designate the department of administration as the lead agency to respond to that emergency. A state of emergency shall not exceed 60 days, unless the state of emergency is extended by joint resolution of the legislature. A copy of the executive order shall be filed with the secretary of state. The executive order may be revoked at the discretion of either the governor by executive order or the legislature by joint resolution. So the legislature could, in theory, override it with a Joint Resolution, at any time. Here is how Wisconsin defines a Joint Resolution: (39) Joint resolution: A proposal requiring adoption by both houses, to: a) express the opinion of the legislature; b) change joint rules of the legislature; c) propose an amendment to the state constitution; or d) propose or ratify an amendment to the U.S. constitution. Failing the above, the order will expire within 60 days, which would be May 23rd (it was deployed on March 24th). It can only be EXTENDED by a Joint Resolution of the State Legislature. The open question remaining there is, can Evers just issue a new order immediately following? I'd say that violates the spirit of the law if not the exact word of it. I'm sort of at a loss why the WI Legislature, if they have even some modicum of party control, doesn't just pass a JR to undo the emergency. Both chambers are heavily Republican. So unless they see a large number of defections within their own party, the lawsuit is 100% unnecessary. And I'm pretty sure the courts will dismiss it since there is a clear legislative remedy already available. I think this isn't the WI GOP, I think it's a small portion of the WI GOP. Otherwise they'd just vote around it.

With the current administration, I am pretty sure they would see "hurt universities" as a feature, not a bug.

On a related note, it's amazing to me how many of the people upset about these orders keep framing it as governors and mayors disobeying the President. They actually think that's how the law works. It's not a corporate hierarchy, my dudes. The feds have delineated authorities, not the other way around.

This is mostly bluster. There is a long history of states being able to impose these orders, and while the federal government ALSO has the authority to close things down as needed, what they don't have is the authority to force businesses or state governments open (except the Defense Production Act, which is isolated and wouldn't apply here). Court precedent defends the states too. There are no grounds for this to stand on. Also, by the time things wound their way through the currently-crippled court system, most of the orders will have begun lifting anyway. This is just Barr saying something to make Trump happy.

I mean, there is a HOW. At a high level, everyone in the medical community and most governments have the same formula, with just a few subtle differences. It's that these people don't LIKE the plan, so they are willing to kill loads of people for their convenience. And they convince themselves of absurd conspiracy theories to justify it in their own minds.

Just saw the governor of Tennessee plans to lift their stay-at-home order as soon as April 27th, a week from today. And not just lift the order, but him saying the great majority of businesses should open. No partial re-open, no phases, just put it back almost full blast. Meanwhile, Tennessee's daily new case numbers haven't diminished at all. No bend in the curve yet. I'm sure that is going to go well for them.

The in-store limitations are pointless and make people angry while not accomplishing anything useful. The use of certain gas-powered devices is also questionable when the order already says generally that outdoor activities are good. Nothing major, just some things that are dumb, and therefore give a foothold for the cult to use.

I tend to agree that a few of Whitmer's new conditions are probably a step too far, and that certainly doesn't help things. It just gives ammunition to the idiots who would make a fuss anyway but now are getting some sort of justification. I have major concerns about the unrest that is likely to come from this in the next few weeks. People are being fed this absurd idea that the orders are illegal, that their freedoms are being taken away permanently, that this is all some huge conspiracy... and I fear that some of the deepest-in of the Cult 45 will fall for all of it. If the results are just a few traffic jam protests like we saw in MI, I will consider that a lucky outcome. I fear it will get much worse.

Most of the friends and family I know who are Trump supporters, even for them, they aren't into the idea of just dropping all the restrictions completely, today. Political belief only goes so far when it is up against their own safety. We can have a good discussion about what should be happening before things start to loosen, how to loosen and when, etc., even if we disagree. But, I do have at least one friend (former co-worker), who is an otherwise intelligent and knowledgeable guy, who has just gone batshit crazy about this. He wants to open everything right now, says all the orders from the states AND feds were illegal, the numbers are all faked and way higher than reality, so on and so on. Honestly I think it is just psychological denial. The reality is so unnerving that some people turn to whatever comforts them, including the rabbit hole of questionable to outright Alex Jones-level media, and put a death grip on it so hard they convince themselves it is true.

We've been fortunate in that we happened to have a box of them (not N95's but more general medical masks) when this all started, as well as two boxes of gloves. Plus I have more gloves in our cars in the first aid kits (I used to be an EMT and carry advanced kits in our vehicles). Just dumb luck. But yeah when I've looked in stores, noting it for in case we run out, there has been nothing available.

Further on the news diet topic, and related to COVID, another thing I like to do every so often is sift through some local papers' sites around the country. I just end up picking places I've lived or where I might have family or friends, so I end up reading the paper of record for cities like Des Moines, Denver, Phoenix, Albuquerque, Atlanta and Memphis. It gives a nice perspective on things, and a more nuanced national view than you get from just the Eastern Megalopolis papers. Pick your own cities' papers, but especially with COVID, it is fascinating to see how different areas are different/same as Chicago.

And it's not that there aren't good content creators at CNN, MSNBC, even Fox. There are. And you're right that in certain breaking news scenarios they are better equipped to get on the ground and get out info quickly. And on the actual election nights I will watch CNN, plugging my ears through their painful panel discussions, because their provision of data as the night goes on is the best out there. So they serve a purpose, I just don't read them beyond those narrow needs.

I just gave up on all the "news networks" (Fox, CNN, MSNBC, other alphabet soups), and my news diet is almost exclusively from journalistic sources. My regular reads are WSJ, Economist, WaPo, the Trib. Occasional reads on NPR, NY Times. Some of those have their biases too (some right and some left in there) but A) they do quality journalism and just as important, B) they separate reporting from analysis/opinion and do it clearly. I think that second thing is a big part of the problem with network news, it's all blended together so that opinions start to obscure facts. I highly recommend making a switch like this. Clarifies the mind quite effectively. That said, none of those networks - even Fox - lie or manipulate at as high a rate as our own damn President. Just watch his COVID briefings for G-d's sake.

Every time I see these projections about states likely reaching a peak at some point in the near future, I wonder if the modeling used for that takes into account any potential bounce-back of the virus as it moves to other states or regions. With a number of larger cities being pretty heavily infected now, what happens next of course is this starts hitting smaller towns and rural areas hard too. And their medical facilities are probably even less able to address even small spikes in need for ICU-level care. Add in those more rural states are, in some cases, among the ones stubbornly resisting medical advice and not locking things down, and it seems like you have a perfect formula for this to happen.

A little background might help some of you folks here, especially if you are new to SoxTalk the last few years... We used to have a political forum, called Filibuster. It was closed, for a bunch of reasons, and we made clear then to not bring politics onto the board. Now clearly, there are political ramifications to COVID - big, important ones - and we don't want to stifle all discussion on the topic. It is a seminal moment in our history and effects literally everything, including baseball. So we are letting it ride as long as it A) is on the COVID topic, and B) is not ad hominem between posters. Please stick with that, or the suspensions will begin.

WARNING: Bring it down a couple notches, get rid of the ad hominem, and stick to the subject. Any posts otherwise from here on out may be subject to suspensions. I am going to clean up some of this garbage stuff now.

Well I don't work on the business end of that office. But I can tell you the basics. A family needs to register with the food bank, filling out paperwork and proving they are a resident of the township. Once that is established, they go into the system. They come in once a month for a big load, and once a week for smaller loads. How much they get of any given thing depends on their family size, including number of children. And of course then things are conditioned or adapted if the food bank is low or out on some category of food. Also, some families are eligible for a small gift card to go with the groceries, for use on other needs. I don't know the qualifications around that part. I mean, donating to your local food pantry is a great start. Just find out where your nearest one is. If you're in Chicago, there is the Greater Chicago Food Depository, and other ones. In the suburbs, sometimes it is at the township level, but some villages I think may have their own. Outside the Chicago area I am not sure how it works but there are certainly food pantries, and I am sure they would be happy to take any money or your time that you would offer. Just reach out to them. I'd guess that money is highest priority, then people's time, but it probably depends on the specific situation each organization is in right now.

I want to share a story from an odd little corner of the "front line" in this situation, which I have experienced first hand. Background: I work as a consultant, and sometimes end up with a few weeks of free time between gigs, so I often do volunteer work. Lately, it's been at the Food Bank in my township. My last gig ended at end of February (great timing, lol), next one won't start until May 1st, so I've been going a few times a week. When I got going in the first full week of March, the major issue they were having was too much back stock. Lots of donations coming in, not enough space. So I was doing a lot of stock reorganization. In the span of just three weeks, the situation has turned on it's head. Back stock is nearly depleted. Too many customers for the volunteers to keep up. Shortages in key supplies. General chaos and lots of changes to the whole operating situation - we now do the "shopping" and bring out the carts to them, gloves and masks of course, lots of precautions, etc. I am not sure most people, especially younger people, have an idea of how dramatically fast this is happening. Bad downturns happen, but it usually take months for the situation to change this much, not a few weeks. It is just striking, and not in a good way. It also tells me that any thought of things getting anywhere near back to normal anytime soon should be quashed. We are still very much headed downhill at high velocity and are nowhere near an economic bottom.

Looks like the US will hit 10,000 confirmed deaths tomorrow, if not tonight. The first death occurred on February 29th, just over a month ago. Running around 1200-1300 per day right now and still accelerating (albeit more slowly, which is the good news). And this is WITH the lockdown procedures in place across a fair amount of the country for the last few weeks. I STILL see a few people in my social media feeds saying we shouldn't be locked down like this, everything should open back up, and this is basically not a big deal. Not just contesting the extent of lockdown mind you, but dismissing all or nearly all of it as unnecessary. The power of denial in a still-large swath of the population is stunning to me. They are getting fewer, but still so many.