southsider2k5

Yet someone paid an expansion fee for the right to put a football team into the Cleveland market.

Why do you believe Jerry didn't want this too?

Let's hear it.

Yeah, if he went from 20% of $20 million at $4 million to 20% of $2 billion at $400 million, that is a gain on $396 million, which is like $80 million.

I apologize for the missepelling, lol, it's Hobson with a B instead of a D. The wife of George Lucas and a multiple billionaire in her own right, they are rumors to have bought a decent sized minority share of the White Sox a few years back. https://www.linkedin.com/in/mellodyhobson/

Since the question seems to be getting ignored, I will post this again, this time with numbers to make the example of new shares being issued. If the White Sox are a 2 billion dollar operation today, that means Jerry owning 20% makes his share of the Sox worth $400 million. Obviously you can adjust that figure to whatever he actually owns today, but I am going to use the historic 20% figure to put numbers so all of this. So a 20% share = $400 million in value 30% = $600 million 40% = $800 million and so on. Call each "share" 1% of the team for simplicity's sake. Jerry currently owns 20 shares out of 100. The other 80 are out there somewhere in the ether If you issue more shares, the valuation of the company does not change. It is still the same company, with the same value and revenue, but now someone else owns a new piece, but everyone else's share gets deluded by a respective amount. So for example, say the Sox want to raise $500 million, or approximately the worth of 25% of the team towards a stadium. There are now 125 shares, but Jerry still owns 20 shares. Those 20 shares are now only 16% of the company, instead of his former 20%. The team still is worth $2 billion, so now Jerry's shares which were worth $400 million, are now worth $320 million. The question becomes, is building a stadium going to generate enough new revenue and value that his shares go up in value more than the $80 million in equity he just gave away to get the stadium built? Say the stadium adds $500 million in valuation to the franchise, to make it worth $2.5 billion, Jerry's 16% deluded holdings are again worth $400 million. So for this to be profitable, the Sox have to add 25% in their valuation on their final selling price before Jerry dies. Again adjust the numbers to your liking, but I don't see this making a lot of sense for a guy who is 88 years old and planning his estate. Maybe if he had a decade plus to see a stadium get funded, built, and the crowds start to create revenue, but right now, that is probably a 5 year plan just getting the stadium funded and built, even if you put it on the timetable of when the lease expires in 2029.

Whose shares? If it is anyone other than his shares, those profits go out the door with the guy whose shares got bought, And if it was his shares, why would he keep that money in the company and not in his estate? If I own something and sell it, I am not longer in that business. If I own 10% of Google, and I sell it, I no longer own google, and those profits exit the building, with a new 10% owner entering. Are you expecting an additional capital infusion after the purchase? Or do you think that Jerry and everyone else will be voting new shares to sell and water down their own ownership share thus diluting their own profits?

I think this is where Jerry won't leave anything to chance. I am going to bet he already has all of this figured out and the money is being met with the people he wants to run this after he is done. With as many people as he tried to block out of baseball, he isn't just going to dump this to anyone. I would bet money this was already figured out years ago, and we are just getting glimpses of it as it goes by.

One more completely independent thought on this topic, putting all of these things together, it also feels like Jerry is doing some end of life planning here. I wonder if he is starting to feel his age, or if he got some medical news that he didn't want.

That's what I keep saying. Despite it all, the Sox are a mid market MLB franchise. MLB isn't going to leave that all to one owner, especially if they could sell a two billion dollar franchise to someone for the opportunity at that market place.

That's why I would guess the Hodson group. They are already connected to the Sox, as is Stewart thru TLR, for whom Jerry met with Nashville for. It fits together naturally. He'd be turning this over to people he knows and trusts.

MLB would have to give approval to a move. There is no reason why they couldn't preserve territory rights, name and history as a part of an approval to keep access to what is currently a mid revenue baseball market. They would be stupid to piss that away.

If you count 1/3 of Chicago as a market, it is bigger than pretty much any real expansion market out there, especially if you account for two expansion teams on top of it.

Busy telling us this could never happen.

Also back to my original theory, I wonder if Hodson is still the money in this deal if they were already the ones who bought a large minority share recently.

Unless the rights were preserved as a part of a move/sale

The Atlanta Braves are a literal corporation.

Only real men would like this post.

2024 in a nutshell.

Eh, it sounds good, but in reality there is always this period of time where teams are homeless. It happened to the Yankees with YES, it happened to the Dodgers, and it happened in Houston where they had so few carriage agreements they managed a 0.0 rating at one point. This is how nine figure corporations negotiate with other billionaires. They go as they think they can go to win a negotiation for a few more points of profit margin. None of this should be surprising, and it sure isn't unusual.

Kind of like how Chris got his last promotion?

Maybe you have been conditioned to accept that from Jerry, but that isn't true in a lot of other markets.

Please stay healthy! Gives Rodon vibes. The stuff is can't miss, but he needs to be available.

You have a lot more faith in the Sox communications than I do. If it isn't sales, they don't care.