Jack Parkman

Heh. That would be ridiculous, and so White Sox.

It's not a crazy thought with the way the injury bug has bitten Robert. Dude always has nagging injuries.

I don't believe he's expecting non-performance, I believe that poster thinks Robert is made of glass and can't be counted on, which isn't a crazy thought until Robert proves he can stay on the field for 130 games/season in the minors.

Not because of that, the injuries have killed it. It pushes development time back significantly. Also, for a rebuild to maximize the window the majority of the players have to arrive within a season or two of each other. You want roughly 7-8 of your best players to arrive within 15 months. The three guys up will have already used 3/7 controllable years before the rest catch up. Kopech will also be in that boat (3/7) as he takes 2020 as a mulligan in his TJS recovery. Murphy's law has derailed it more than anything else. Any lost development time for key prospects is brutal once the first guy has been called up.

It already has failed. Most can see it. They had an incredible head start and injuries and non-performance has derailed it.

Your number for Cole is delusional. He's getting 6/150 minimum. Don't forget who his agent is. hint: it's some guy named Scott

In a perfect world: Cole Within the Sox budget: Nobody Bottom line: B-/C+ FA are overpaid for the production they bring. If they're not going to pony up for the elite talent, then don't spend at all. Save the money and invest in the areas I keep harping about. There is no reason to continue wasting millions of dollars on the Melky Cabreras and Jeff Samardzijas of each FA class. That money is better spent on player development, analytics, etc.

When July 2021 rolls around and the Sox look headed for another 88-93 loss season, if JR is still walking this earth will he have the balls to clean house? That is the $64k question.

The huge issue is that they don't want to pay the price to augment the team through FA. Any outside help is going to come from the bargain bin. One of the pitchers they have absolutely has to become a TOR pitcher otherwise they are fucked. In other words, if Kopech isn't an ace they're fucked.

The bottom line is there is no prospect the Sox have without massive questions somewhere in their game. Eloy is the closest, but he has the problem of potentially being a DH. When your safest and best position prospect doesn't actually have a position, I don't think you're in very good shape. There is also some evidence starting to build in the over the last 5-8 seasons that if a top prospect struggles early they're probably not going to be the star everyone thought they would be, and if a player comes up from the minors and tears it up immediately, they'll probably be a star, and you'll know for sure just how good they'll be based on season #2. Also, when drawing up prospects that disappoint or bust completely, they have the most questions about their hit tool or power. You can't make it in today's game without a decent hit tool and decent power. Most of the players that develop late are guys that people didn't think much of initially, like Jose Altuve and Corey Kluber.

I understand what you're saying. He's the best guy I could think of. I don't think Moncada will ever hit .300+ like Ramirez does, but in many other ways they're similar. If Moncada does just a decent improvement to his hit tool he's going to hit .275-.290. He has that kind of power/speed combo though. I can't think of anyone better to compare him to. What other 3B have the power/speed combo that Moncada has other than Ramirez? I can't think of any. Moncada could end up hitting over .300 and being comparable to Jose Ramirez. Is it likely? Absolutely not. Is it out of the question? No. Moncada has so many possible outcomes attached to his profile. He's still only 23.

I've already come to terms with that thought, and I believe it to be true. I think it has more to do with bad luck though than anything. They shot for the moon with their trades, and targeted highly volatile, but also extremely talented players with some of their high picks, and all of their trades, and so far it looks like they're going to hit on only 0-1 of them. The one guy they might hit on is Kopech. Giolito, Kopech, Moncada, Robert, and Cease were all high variance players in terms of outcome. Kopech and Robert have health issues, Moncada is settling into the middle of his range. While still a solid MLB player, he's probably going to be nothing more than a 2-4 win 3B. Fulmer completely busted, Giolito looks headed there. Rodon is probably the left handed version of Javy Vazquez. Collins is a weird player that I don't know what to make of. Madrigal reeks of making the "safe" pick. Cease is somewhere between Lopez and Kopech, and based on how they're handling him, the best case scenario might be a prime Rich Harden.(a great starter while pitching, but can only go 4-5 innings per game) While there is still time for some of this to work, that window is closing. I also don't know what to make of Lopez. Eloy is probably the safest player but he hasn't been in the majors yet and with the way the rest of this rebuild isn't working, I can't count my chickens. This begs the question: Is this a talent evaluation problem, the baseball gods smiting the Sox rebuild, or is it a combination of both? I really can't answer it. And at what point do Hahn and KW get whacked?

They probably will be. Their pitching leaves a lot to be desired. Rodon may take a step forward, he may not. Same with Giolito and Lopez. I hope one of Giolito or Lopez can take a step to be a mid-rotation starter. Kopech should be a TOR starter. Cease will probably be either a TOR starter or a back end bullpen guy. After that, the pitching gets really thin. Dunning and Hansen can't be counted on, due to injuries, and we have to wait to see what Pilkington does but I'm not overly enthused. There are a bunch of C prospect pitchers in this system afterward, and it would be nice. Most of the pitching is here either already or will be in 2020 and the position players will come up around that time as well. The next 3 years are highly important, and the most important is 2021. If it doesn't click in 2021, this whole thing is kaput. Not that it may matter much, but 2023 starts the exodus: 2023 FA: Lopez, Giolito 2024: Moncada, Anderson 2025: Kopech 2026: Jimenez I'm starting to believe that Moncada isn't going to be that 6+ WAR stud. I think he'll settle into the 3-4 win range. So, if a window opens, it will be from 2021-2025. Sox need to add to their rotation for those years. They should go get Gerrit Cole next offseason.

I think he is, and yes it is a reason for concern, but it is a really small sample size. 20 AB is too small to draw any meaningful conclusions. The 9 K are concerning. It doesn't change the fact that he pulverizes baseballs when he makes contact, hence the early 1.000 BABIP. I hope he improves as the spring continues. If this was a team with a decent track record of developing hitters, I wouldn't be as concerned as I am right now about him, I'm willing to wait until mid-June or so to draw any meaningful conclusions. Once he gets to that magical 1200 PA idk what to think anymore. I might have to accept that he's just an MLB regular and nothing more at that point. A 3 win player isn't horrible or anything, but he's still a disappointment if that is what he ultimately ends up being.

I was just going to ask that same question.

Another K for Giolito in the 2nd. Gave up a triple on the 1st pitch that ended up scoring. 1-0 Padres.

Something really encouraging early on in ST is that Giolito is missing bats. Huge development. 2K in the 1st inning. On the other hand, Moncada is still struggling with Ks.

Does someone have a link to the game today or is it MLB.TV only?

I'd pay if I could afford it but in my financial situation it would be a frivolous purchase. I could do either BA or the Athletic and since the Athletic covers all sports, I choose them.

Could someone with access post just the rankings so I have an idea?

No.

Agreed.

Go to each player page and read what they have to say. Lopez: https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=16400&position=P Rodon: https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=16137&position=P Giolito: https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=15474&position=P

Thirded. I wonder what it is with pitching as well. I looked it up and the majority of ace quality pitchers were actually college arms. Of ace quality pitchers, at some point in their career, that were draft eligible: College: Verlander Scherzer Sale Kluber DeGrom Cole Nola HS: Kershaw Bumgarner Syndergaard Snell Out of the following pitchers, the following were NOT top 10 picks: Sale Kluber DeGrom Snell Syndergaard Of this group, Kluber and DeGrom were NOT 1st round picks and Snell and Syndergaard were Comp A picks(between 1st and 2nd rounds). We all know where Sale was drafted, and IIRC he was rated 4th best prospect going into the 2010 draft but he fell into the Sox lap because of groupthink. If this tells you anything, it is that you can get a superstar position player anywhere but to get an ace you damn well better get him in the top 10.

The Sox pitching is a huge wild card. It could be anywhere from very bad to pretty good, or anywhere in between. That is what you get when 3/5 of your staff is 26 or younger and 2/5 are veteran retreads. Reading the Fangraphs writeups on Rodon, Giolito and Lopez weren't very inspiring though. Surprisingly enough, they think that of the three Lopez is the worst of the bunch. They don't think Lopez is a major league pitcher. They're not sure Giolito is either, but they're more optimistic about him than Lopez. They think Rodon is nothing more than a #4. So maybe the pitching really is worse than we think and there isn't room for growth.