Jack Parkman

Yep.

I think the fact they're pushing 3B on Moncada means Harper or bust at this point. I think they know Machado isn't signing here.

QFT.

Exactly this scenario is why teams bid against themselves. It prevents another team from swooping in late and stealing the player with a slightly higher offer.

I hope you're right. Also, I maintain that if the Sox weren't willing to go to at least 35M AAV they weren't serious anyway.

If the Padres did in fact offer 8/280 it's over folks.

Incorrect. The 2010-2016 Sox had more holes than they could afford to fill.

What would you do: If you have 2-3 massive holes in your roster is it better to get a superstar at one of those positions, and ride with the other two holes or should you fill them all with above average players for the same amount of money, should they be available? I'd argue the latter is more efficient and would lead to a better outcome in terms of wins. Would you rather have three 2.5 win players or 1 7 win player and 2 0-1 win players?

While that is true, it is ok if you understand what you're getting, which is a depreciating asset. The data says they're both unlikely to have a season as good as their best completed season from here forward. Players don't get better, they only get worse.

You get more bang for your buck with the mediocre player actually, as crazy as it sounds. Payroll flexibility is a huge asset that is probably more important than any player.

If you look at player aging curves post-Roids it is never a good idea to sign a free agent to a long term deal, even at age 25-26. As crazy as it sounds, the data says their best years are already behind them.

Not at all. I'd just think it was somewhat amusing.

Yes. Why would I spend countless hours on here for 13 years if I wasn't?

Very true Shipps.

I'm going to find it somewhat amusing should the Sox get outbid by the Padres, mostly because of my large/small market discussion with everyone here.

San Diego guy said that the Padres can get around the tax issue by giving him a signing bonus. Machado is a FL resident and any SB would be subject to FL taxes, which s zero.

I think, in the end it is going to come down to opt outs. If the Padres are willing to risk him leaving as their contention window opens, they're getting him. If the Sox aren't willing to give him an opt out I don't blame them. It doesn't make sense for them to give him an opt out in any way whatsoever. They had to know that they were going to have to approach $300M going into this offseason to be taken seriously. Let's see what the dollar amount is before passing judgment. I do agree that if Machado signs for less than $300M and the Sox got blown away in dollars, then it would be a failure and they were never serious to begin with.

I'm only doing that because I think some people (like yourself) would be incredibly disappointed if they don't get Machado or Harper. There really is no need to be disappointed, because the Sox have options and they might not need to spend that kind of dough on those guys anyway.

Thanks Shipps. This is true. Will I be a bit disappointed. Sure. It doesn't change anything. Sports are completely out of a fan's control. We control what we can, and that is our reaction to what happens on the field.

100% what I'm doing with regard to Machado and Harper. If they get one, Wonderful! If they don't, meh. I've been disappointed way too many times in my life to have any expectations of anything really. Expecting the worst is actually a really good defense mechanism, because even though it won't happen most of the time, you're still prepared for it if it does.

Thanks. How do you feel about the rest of the team?

Literally the only thing I'm pessimistic about with regard to the Sox is landing Machado or Harper. Last year sucked with regard to injuries, but there is still a TON of high end talent here. There is the distinct possibility we don't need those guys. My pessimism looks worse than it is because the majority of the offseason banter has been about Harper/Machado.

I'm in the camp of making absolutely sure Moncada sucks or isn't a 5+ win player before giving his job to Madrigal. Moncada has more talent in his pinkie finger than Madrigal has in his whole body. If Moncada makes contact, he's going to be a star.

Outside of a brief 3 week period between the end of Bears season and the Super Bowl, I never really expected either Machado or Harper to come here anyway, so if they don't get either it really doesn't move the needle for me. There are still plenty of reasons to be excited about the Sox this year.

Moncada's going to break out in 2019, Eloy is going to come up and rake, Rodon is going to pitch like at least a #2, Lopez is going to put up 3+WAR and Giolito isn't going to suck anymore. These are all things I believe about the 2019 Sox. I'm pretty bullish on their talent. I never really bought the Machado/Harper stuff. I was starting to believe though 4 weeks ago. There are plenty of things to be positive about, despite Machado/Harper not coming here. I don't think you'd ever hear BWC talk that positively about the Hawks. LOL.