Jack Parkman

Agreed bmags. They're both great, and I wouldn't complain either way, but Harper is the superior player.

Yes. Harper's "bad" season was his age 21 season as well. so TIFWIW. They're both 26, and Harper is actually younger by a half year. Harper's age 20 season was better than his age 21 season. If everyone wants to only look at 2015-18 that is fine. We'll just look at Offense at that point

If you look deeper, Harper has been incredibly unlucky during his career for entire seasons when it comes to batted ball data. The only year he truly had a bad year was in 2014. In 2016 and 2018 he had a BABIP below .300(in 2016 it was well below .300) Which shows that his "bad" years were more on the unlucky side than anything he did or didn't do. Even during those unlucky years it isn't close offensively. You can argue defense all you want. and I won't argue Manny being an excellent defender provides value. I just think that the difference in their offense far exceeds the difference in their defense. Harper is better, and it isn't close.

I don't think it is close tbh. I clarified. Harper's 3 worst seasons are .768, .814, .817 Machado's are .745, .755, .782 Harper's 3 best seasons: 1.109 1.008 .889 Machado's 3 best .905 .876 .867 Not even close in terms of ceiling and floor.

Teams are probably willing to pay Harper $50M more than Machado over the course of his contract. Think about that.

You could use the prospects to acquire a decent 3B. If you can, you acquire Harper this year, Gerrit Cole or Chris Sale next year, and use some of the other prospects besides the core players to fill any remaining holes.

I don't disagree that Machado fits team needs better, but the more I dig into the numbers, the more I'm convinced Harper is a far superior player. I don't trust defensive metrics all that much as they swing wildly from season to season. If Machado has a negative year or two on the defensive side, he goes from a 5 win plyer to a 3, and is that worth 30M per season? Harper just put up a 5 win season while being negative defensively. I really don't think that it is close at all.

No. The Jay and Alonso acquisitions kind of telegraphed who their main target is.

Disagree. I think Harper has the safer floor and the higher ceiling. I really don't think that it is close. If you're spending the money, you spend it on Bryce, unless he's not interested in playing here.

I disagree. I think Harper's numbers ARE head and shoulders better. Are we going to talk about 13 and 14? Machado had a .745 and .755 OPS respectively. For comparison's sake, Moncada had a .714 last year in what everyone that was a miserable season.

Machado's 3 best years: .861-2015 .876-2016 .905-2018 Those are the only 3 seasons that Machado has put up an OPS over .800 in his career Harper's best 3 seasons: 2015-1.109 2017-1.008 2018-.889 Harper has only had one season in his career with an OPS less than .800(2014) Machado has had 4 seasons with an OPS less than .800. Harper might be inconsistent, but he's inconsistent in a good way. Even at his worst ge'd still a really good player, and he has the potential to explode and put up MVP numbers any given season. IMO, there is more risk with Machado. Not to say there isn't risk with Harper, but Machado could go from very good to average overnight. I think the only major risk with Harper is losing his ability to play a position. Even so, his numbers translate well to 1B/DH.

Hey Kiwi, 2 questions for you as a New Zealander: 1. How do you pronounce Aukland properly? is it Oakland(like the city in California) or AWKland (like the bird the auk) 2. I've always wanted to visit down under because I'm an avid amateur astronomer. Where are the darkest parts of NZ? You get to see stuff that you don't up here, and you get better views of southerly objects(objects near the horizon and obscured by atmosphere up here, are near the zenith down under) Australia weirds me out because there are so many bugs and other critters that can kill you there. Is NZ any better?

Even when he's inconsistent, he's still a better hitter than Machado. His offensive ceiling is much higher. If Machado loses any of his defensive value, he becomes MUCH worse immediately. I don't trust defensive metrics nearly as much as offensive metrics. In reality, it is possible that Machado isn't even on the same planet as Harper as a baseball player.

I'm quoting this again because I found the perfect player comparison for Lopez if he reaches his ceiling: Surprise! it is another ALC pitcher: Carlos Carrasco. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/carraca01.shtml

I would speculate it is 21 due to his twitter handle, but Castillo is wearing that right now. Castillo could go back to 53.

You can't go wrong with either, but I think Harper has a MUCH higher offensive ceiling than Machado. Machado is going to put up probably 4-6 WAR per season. Harper will probably put up 4-6 WAR most seasons, but he could have a few in the 7-10 range as well. Machado will probably top at 6.5. Most of Harper's WAR is due to offense, while a big chunk of Machado's WAR is due to defense. Harper is an on base machine, something that Machado isn't. Even in his bad years(2016 and 2018) Harper still was a Greek God of walks. OPS is the stat that has the highest correlation with run scoring In 2016 Harper had an .814 OPS in 2018 Harper had an .889 OPS. His career OPS is .900 In both 2016 and 2018, Harper had bad luck on batted balls(BABIP<.300) Harper has a career .388 OBP Machado has had one year with an OPS >.900(2018) He has had 3 full seasons with an OPS below .800 Machado has a career .335 OBP in his down year(2017) Machado had poor luck with batted balls (.265 BABIP) It is obvious who the superior offensive player is. I'd be happy with either, but I prefer Harper, even if he costs more, because he is a much better offensive player and the flexibility it brings the Sox in terms of trading prospects. Harper is someone who can hold his value as a 1B/DH. Machado isn't. Mr. Boras, Can I have a few thousand dollars for making this pitch and doing this research for you?

Yeah Clevinger is really good too. I think they go with Bieber at #5 and Salazar at closer if he can stay on the mound, should Kluber get traded.

This x infinity. Nice post that sums it up nicely. Madrigal is just an MLB regular unless he turns into the 2B version of Ichiro Suzuki. Moncada's ceiling is Jose Ramirez. He probably won't get even to Ramirez, but if he does.......He'll be 2nd in MVP to Trout every year. I think Jose Ramirez is the ceiling for him.

Santana? You mean Salazar. Carlos Santana is a DH. I get what you're saying though. The fact remains that Salazar is incredibly injury prone, and Bauer only has two years left(including this one) They still have Bieber too. I don't disagree that their rotation is still really damn good without Kluber, but Kluber is still better than everyone else on that pitching staff. Look to them for what the Sox staff could look like in a few years with Kopech, Cease, Lopez, Dunning and whomever fills out the 5th spot(Giolito/Rodon/Hansen)

You could say that about 20 of the teams in the NBA. In both the NFL and NBA, it is nearly impossible to have sustained success if you don't have an all time great on your team(NFL it has to be at the QB position)

He got hosed so often on pitches that were waaaay off the plate I'm convinced he banged one of their daughters/granddaughters or something.

I think that Kluber getting traded to the NL does more for the Sox chances of competing for the ALC title than adding Joc Pederson. Sox can find an OF elsewhere, while not having Kluber in the division is great news. In short, Kluber to LAD>>>>>Pederson to Sox.

Ok, makes sense that it has to be an incredibly egregious abuse of managerial power to strike during a contract.

I did not know that. I always thought that US labor law allowed for strikes whether there was an existing agreement or not. I've heard of unions striking because they were unhappy with their current contract. Maybe it is different for pro sports because there is an antitrust exemption.

Strike immediately to negotiate a better deal. Even before Harper/Machado sign, I think they should consider not showing up to ST.