Jack Parkman

Same with Harper. Kenny Rogers(the singer, not the pitcher) comes into play here. "You gotta know when to hold 'em and know when to fold 'em" If they're truly serious about both Machado/Harper they have to know they are spending AT LEAST $350 million to get them to talk. I'd imagine they won't go any more than $380-390 M. They aren't going to be the team that gives out the 1st 400 million dollar contract.

Sawx fans know baseball, Cub fans are baseball stupid. Huge difference. You don't have to talk to Sawx fans about why players such as Micah Hoffpauir and David Bote suck. Cub fans, OTOH....... Sawx fans have quieted down significantly over the last 5 years. Fanbases have a right to talk some trash after they win a championship. To me, jankee fans and Cub fans are the most insufferable fans in all of baseball. If you include all sports, you can put Leafs and Cowboys fans right up there with them.

I like the Red Sox a little. Sure, their fans were annoying when they won 3 WS in 8 seasons, but whatever they had waited a while. Anything that pisses off the spoiled, entitled jankee fans is ok with me. BTW, I call the Yankees the jankees because that is how Ozzie used to say Yankees.

No doubt. I don't know why the metrics hate Engel defensively(maybe it has to do with his noodle arm), but I'm willing to wait a bit to see if he could provide more value because they've been talking about a swing change in the broadcasts with him. If he is still crap next May, by all means DFA him. For most of the past two seasons he belonged nowhere near an MLB roster.

Yeah him too. Huge omission to forget about Gonzalez.

To me, that almost goes without saying. It is the same argument with Engel. Now his arm is average, but he can really go get 'em in CF and if this hitting improvement is real he might be able to stick until either Robert or Basabe supplant him, and I'm pretty confident one of those two will. You can live with him hitting .245-.255 with minimal power because he saves so many runs in CF. Who knows? Maybe if Engel got to that point he'd be a 12-15 HR/ year guy. If that happens, they might actually be able to trade him for something of value when Robert/Basabe supplant him. Engel's OBP sucks too, but his is more because he doesn't get hits rather than him not walking. Similarly, Moncada's OBP might be hovering around .300 right now, but when you take into account he's hitting .220 that is fine, in terms of walk rate.

I'd almost prefer a SS with Narvaez's offensive profile rather than Anderson's. If Narvaez was at least passable defensively we could probably pencil him in next season. Catching is probably the one position where defensive ability (including framing) is more important than offense. I like the high contact/high on base profile for the defensive positions. I can live with 5-15 HR from those positions if they're solid defensively, hit .280(with some speed for a MI) and get on base at a .350 clip.

No it was more exhaustion than anything else. The evidence supported they were horrible. I always said the one of the following phrases "Currently" "Right Now" or "At this point in time" because it was more me saying I can't defend them anymore even though I still think they'll be good. I got bludgeoned for a while. I never gave up on those guys, I just gave up publicly defending them because it got to the point where it was indefensible. There is a reason why when I told the board that I was at the game on Kopech day, Fathom asked if I was hanging out in Giolito's locker.

Not true. I always thought he could turn it around. It was more of this: The evidence supported that Giolito and Moncada sucked AT THAT MOMENT IN TIME. I defended both of them for months and it got to the point around late July that I couldn't defend their non-performance anymore. It doesn't mean that I still didn't believe in both of them, it just meant I couldn't defend their non-performance at point. It got exhausting defending those guys constantly to this board who wanted to throw both under the bus.

My opinion is that even though Anderson is average, he's not a player that I'd keep around if I was Hahn. I just don't like players that don't get on base. However, I was shocked that the MLB average for OBP was around .320. That seems kind of low to me. I would have thought it would have been closer to .330. I'd imagine the guys who are and will become MLB regulars would have their OBP at .330+

Uribe was a much better defender than Anderson. Not to say Anderson can't get there eventually, but that is what made Uribe acceptable.

Yup. I had my own ideas of what numbers I thought players who had a 4+ year career put up based on years of watching baseball, and that is what I was basing suck/doesn't suck on. I don't have the time to go through all of the data and find out whether or not it is accurate. If I did, I would, but I don't.

It's a lot easier to be convinced that you're wrong when the evidence supports that you're wrong. It is easier for things like sports where you have most of the information available to you than something like politics where everything is based on circumstantial evidence, at best. There was overwhelming evidence that Anderson, in fact, is average. People have to be ok with being wrong. I'm fine with it. In life, they say "You can either be happy or right. Pick one."

Not all of them are based on logic, some of that is internal biases. Some of them are based on logic. Giolito was based on logic. I saw his mechanical issues and thought he could be fixed. Anderson was more based on I don't like players who don't get on base. I wanted to prove he sucked otherwise, but I couldn't. Hendricks, I'm willing to admit is that I don't like his style and he plays for the team on the north side of town. When it comes to pitching, I've always been drawn to the Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez flamethrowing types. I like pure dominance, making hitters look silly. Buehrle was an exception because he could pull that off occasionally without the huge heater. Hendricks is kind of breaking modern baseball because most people think it is all velocity all the time. I actually think this works in his favor, because he's pitching well below hitting speed as a RHP hitters are probably too quick on his stuff because they're used to 93+ all of the time and he's there at 88-89. He's actually a really interesting case study if you think about it. Historically, only LHP could get away with soft tossing.

You're right. I look at this, I went down the rabbit hole of trying to prove Anderson sucks and I couldn't pull it off. Hey, that is what the Scientific Method is for, right? I came up with a hypothesis, tested it and it didn't pass. My internal biases did say "I think Anderson sucks." I want to believe he sucks but he doesn't. He's average and that is fine. Not going to argue this anymore. I'm done. I generally don't like players that don't get on base, but if there is proof of value otherwise I'm not going to argue.

I just have an irrational hate for Hendricks because he plays for the Cubs and I WANT him to fail because he plays for that team. I don't like him.

How is it outdated? Please tell me what they did wrong and why the evidence states otherwise? They make a pretty compelling argument in that article.

+1 Nice post.

Touche. I can't argue with that. You win. I'm not afraid to admit that I am wrong. Isn't this what a sports message board is about anyway? I'd still like to see what the average BA/OBP/OPS of a player who has had a 5+ year career in the last 10 seasons is. I think it is closer to my number than the average.

I expect my 5th starter to have an ERA in the 3.90-4.20 range? Do you think that is unreasonable?

The Boston Red Sox? They're damn close Betts Bogaerts Benintendi Sale JD Martinez Nunez is probably in that category at 2B Kimbrel I'd bet Moreland is close because of bad 1Bs all across baseball

They're called outliers. Ever heard of them? There is the average, which is simple math. Then you take the ridiculous outliers and throw them out. Only then do you have an accurate representation. I wish someone would go through the last 5 years of data and pick out players that have had a 4+year career in the Majors and go look at their stats. I'd imagine you'd find that my baseline for that is pretty close to average.

Nope, but I do compare them to the top 33% at their position.

That is depressed by the insane number of really bad teams. Much more than most seasons in MLB history. You're going to have to lose 90-92 games to pick top 10 this year.

Go look at corner infielders around baseball They don't make them like they used to. Abreu was BY FAR the best offensive 1B in the AL this year, and nobody said he was having a great season. If you think of your traditional 1B slugger, you can almost count the number of those guys on one hand in the majors this season.