Jack Parkman

I wouldn't mind, in the event that Mize falls to 4, for the Sox to just take him and if the medicals dont check out defer to #5 next year. Worth the gamble IMO.

Yeah, I'll be surprised if he sticks in the majors if he doesn't somehow get back to 95-96. Given how he continues to lose velocity rather than gaining any back, I'll be shocked if he sticks in any role. Fulmer doesn't have any semblance of knowing where the ball is going and Lopez is meh. I honestly think out of those 3 we should be happy if Lopez is a lights out reliever because he can't seem to hold his velocity as a starter. I'm expecting zero from Fulmer and Giolito at this point and if they can contribute in any way in the majors consider it a win.

At least we found a lefty that can get outs out of the pen. Baby steps.

To be fair, a lot of my hope and optimism about Giolito early this season was based on him being able to regain velocity back to the mid 90s. Without that, He's probably toast, because he doesn't have the command to hit his spots regularly. I've always been meh on Lopez. I never knew what to make of Fulmer. This is potentially a huge setback, but we have to wait it out for another season and see. Question though, at what point with these guys do we come to the conclusion that "they are what they are?" is 4-500 MLB innings a reasonable benchmark?

I realized it was rhetorical sarcasm. I just wanted to make a point that the shine had worn off of Giolito,Fulmer and Lopez last season and that most people's opinions here(myself included) were based on old data/scouting reports that didn't fit reality anymore, especially with Giolito and Fulmer. Not that they can't figure it out, but these three suck right now and I'm really not sure they're going to do anything but suck in the future. The Sox have a lot of problems if none of the three young pitchers currently in the bigs amount to anything.

Actually no. They were bad(Giolito), worse(Fulmer) and meh(Lopez) To be honest, there really wasn't a reason to be excited by the three guys up in the rotation. Results were mediocre and they all seemed to be overhyped, with the exception of Giolito who somehow lost 5mph off his heater in the last 3 seasons. Giolito throwing 96-98 probably would be a good pitcher. Giolito throwing 91-92 sucks.

The seams are different on an NCAA ball vs an MiLB vs an MLB ball. NCAA has the highest seams, MiLB is lower but higher than MLB. MLB has the lowest seams. It is harder to throw a breaking ball as a pitcher moves up the ladder. I think it explains a lot with Fulmer for instance, who had a wicked curve in college but it hasn't been anywhere close to as good in pro ball. This makes it harder to scout, I always thought there should be consistency with seam height at the D1, minor league, an major league levels. Raising the seams on the MLB/MiLB ball might prevent injuries as well so I don't know why it hasn't been considered yet

The fact that they are even considering Singer at #4 is disturbing. He better have some wicked breaking stuff if they take him there.

The only guy who was super negative on Sale was Law. Callis had him as the 4th best player in the draft and had him mocked at 4th overall in MLB pipeline's 2010 draft preview. Most were shocked he fell to the Sox. This is revisionist history. Law despised Sale and was wrong. I just said people can be wrong. It happens all of the time. Nobody is infallible. If people were infallible, the world would be a boring place. Just because Law was loud and outspoken about his opinion on Sale, doesn't mean it was the consensus.

I gather lots of info from multiple sources. These aren't my opinions, these are those of baseball writers. If the majority of these guys believe x, I believe that is the most likely outcome. Not that they can't be wrong, just that it is the most likely outcome. Most of those people think that Eloy is a DH and Lopez is a back of the rotation pitcher. Just because this isn't what we as fans want to hear, doesn't mean we should dismiss it as garbage. It doesn't mean that those people can't be completely wrong either.

Yeah, I think he's going to end up as a DH really quickly. The Cubs already have one of those in their OF they couldn't afford two. Eloy is probably a DH long term. The only scouting source I've read that doesn't have Eloy as an absolutely putrid fielder with a noodle arm is Fangraphs, which I find weird.

I'm incredibly grateful the Sox were able to move Quintana to the Cubs last year and received the return they did because if the Cubs went with Verlander instead we could have been stuck with Quintana and would receive nothing for him given his performance the last 1 1/3 seasons up to this point. It would be very difficult to convince a GM that has worth a top 100 prospect if we still had him. There is no way we'd get anything close to Eloy/Cease now.

I wouldn't touch this guy top 4 with a 10 foot pole. Doesn't have good enough stuff imo.

Actually there is a strong correlation with striking out hitters, not walking hitters, not giving up HRs and run prevention. Those who give up the fewest runs consistently do those 3 things well. That is the basis of FIP and xFIP. Conversely, pitchers who pitch to contact have less consistent results. Look at Buehrle for instance. He was more good than bad but had some awful seasons mixed in. When you pitch to contact, success is more luck than skill. Contact pitchers can have great individual seasons but they aren't really great year after year. Pitchers with great stuff that miss bats are more consistently great and have a smaller standard deviation from season to season.

*claps hands* Exactly. FIP and xFIP are predictive, as in they tell you what is likely to happen in the future. ERA and ERA+ (or ERA- if you want to use that) tell you what happened so far, and are not predictive stats.

I have been watching the games and Shields has been probably the best guy on the staff objectively. Still scary. If Shields could fix his 1st inning bugaboo, he'd probably have decent stats too.

Their 1st full year is what I meant. Sorry for the miscommunication.

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=16400&position=P Look at his FIP and xFIP. He's been bad, just extremely lucky. 4.93 FIP and 5.54 xFIP. Shields has been the best starter on the staff and it isn't close, which is very scary.

This is true. Thank you. All we can do is hope and see what happens, More will probably fail than be successful.

Remember, his last two outings were against teams that had lineups similar to the worst MLB teams, so I looked at those as a litmus test and I disagree that he's ready based on that.

Why waste service time on this team? More importantly, he's not ready. He has an ERA over 5 in Charlotte, and has been shelled and wild his last two outings. I think he could be by the end of the season, but he's clearly not now. They are stupid if they bring him up before September. He's 21, already young for the level and there is no need to rush him.

Think that is overly optimistic, and assumes zero struggles from any of them going forward. I assume the following in best case scenarios: Kopech/Jimenez: 9/2018 Collins/Dunning:6/2019 Cease/Hansen:9/2019 Robert/Rutherford: 6/2020 Adolfo/Basabe(potentially)/2018 first rounder: 9/2020

I hope Moncada and Jimenez stick around but I think they're both going to be at the very least stars and at best among the 10 best hitters in the game(especially Moncada). The Sox won't be able to compete money wise to keep those big boys in town, unfortunately. The Sox fanbase is closer to the Pirates/Royals than it is to the Cubs/Angels.

You think Robert, Rutherford, Adolfo, and Cease will be up by the end of next season???? That is overly optimistic, IMO. Sure, I could see Jimenez up in September 2018, Kopech in June 2019, and Collins/Cease in Sept. 2019. I don't see the others hitting the Bigs until June 2020 at the earliest. Then, once up, you have to account for growing pains which is why the only way 2020 or 2021 is possible is if they hit the ground running immediately which while possible, is unlikely. So the most realistic window is from 2022-2025.

Are Kopech, Moncada, Jimenez, and( maybe) Lopez good enough to win games to win games by themselves??? Best case, you're looking at a stars/scrubs roster similar to 2015-16 until the group from A+ start to hit in the majors. By then, those four will be in their first or second arbitration year. We're looking at a Royals like window people. Only one to three seasons before top players start hitting FA. This could result in 3 playoff appearances but zero championships, and we have to be prepared for that.