WCSox

QUOTE (G&T @ Dec 17, 2009 -> 07:58 AM) Rollins can hit 20 home runs. OBP isn't everything, but Rollins can make up for OBP deficiency with some power. Some of the responses here seem to suggest that it is. It's the stolen bases (not the HRs) that put Rollins in the leadoff spot. Their lineup would arguably be more effective with Victorino (career .347 OBP, ~30 SB/year) leading off and Rollins hitting 2nd.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 15, 2009 -> 07:37 AM) But you gotta come back to...what are the odds of him actually making himself into a 900 OPS guy? When you look at his full stat line, he has some serious issues that show up. He's in the top 10 in strikeouts every year. That one year where he hit .300 he had to put up a .393 BABIP to do so; while that certainly can mean he was raking the ball, he's put up more reasonable numbers from .310-.340 in his other years. For him to put up an .850-.900 OPS with the number of times he strikes out, he really needs to have everything he hits be a solid line drive. It certainly seems to me like these high strikeout guys that teams are using to lead off (Sizemore, Granderson, Upton) are turing out to be very prone to long-term slumps that can take their team down with them. Not only that, but you need to wonder about a guy who didn't respond to shoulder surgery and actually LOST power 6-9 months after his labrum was repaired. And not only did he lose power, but his OBP fell 70 points after he was supposedly healthy again. There's no way that I give up my best two prospects for a guy like that until I see some evidence that he can still hit. One also has to wonder why the Rays would want to move him now - at his lowest point of value - while he's affordable and under team control for the next three seasons.

Just to throw this out there, Jimmy Rollins has a career OBP of .329 (.296 this season) and the Phillies haven't exactly sucked with him in the leadoff spot.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Dec 16, 2009 -> 09:48 PM) Or just bat him 3rd. Considering the makeup of the rest of the starting lineup, that would make a lot of sense.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Dec 16, 2009 -> 07:12 PM) I was thinking about this yesterday, and I realized one thing. No way Matsui signs here for $6.5 million when the Angels are making the same offer. My guess is he would have required something closer to $8 million in order to pass the Angels and sign with us. If I were a foreign-born player and had no regional ties, there's pretty much no way that I'd take Chicago over SoCal without major financial incentive. If the Padres were as well-run and successful as the Angels, they'd be an even bigger draw.

QUOTE (Thunderbolt @ Dec 16, 2009 -> 08:22 PM) He's there for the taking, it's a risk, but it's incredibly logical. I'd bet that KW has the move in the back of his mind, but is looking elsewhere for now. Kenny should definitely consider it. But I would hope that he's savvy enough to realize that his clubhouse isn't some sort of magical environment that will change Bradley. QUOTE (SoxAce @ Dec 16, 2009 -> 08:30 PM) But Ozzie needs to STFU and let Kenny and the upper management make the decisions. But if he did STFU for once, he wouldn't be Ozzie.

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Dec 16, 2009 -> 07:09 PM) If not for 2005, would Ozzie still be our manager? Do you remember how long Jerry Manuel was our manager? With the way that CQ and PK have battled through injuries over the past few years, Kenny freaking better bring another high SLG guy into the fold. Even a declining Thome would provide a major boost.

QUOTE (lakervin @ Dec 16, 2009 -> 03:56 PM) id rather have aj over victor,even though both are weak behind the plate Huh? A.J. handles pitchers like an absolute pro and has gotten a lot better at throwing out runners over the past couple of years. That said, I'd take V-Mart in a second because of his age and bat. And there's about a snowball's chance in hell that Epstein's going to let him go.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Dec 16, 2009 -> 03:47 PM) This is another point I am trying to make. I don't care if Pierre bats 1st or 9th. I don't view him as someone to fill the "leadoff spot." The fact that Pierre is our best leadoff option speaks volumes about how crappy our lineup currently is. He's an improvement over what we had before, and that's what really counts. After years of people on Soxtalk complaining about our one-dimensional, station-to-station lineup, one would think that bringing in a good contact hitter like Pierre - who can actually lay down a bunt and run the bases well - on the cheap would be greeted a little more positively. Especially considering the current financial constraints.

QUOTE (Kalapse @ Dec 16, 2009 -> 02:33 PM) I agree 100% which is why I dislike acquiring a guy like Pierre, he's not all that good at baseball but he's a prototypical "leadoff hitter" so Kenny went out of his way to get him. Pierre has skills (hitting for average, bunting, running the bases well) that have been sorely lacking in our lineup for years. There's value to having a player that can do something other than hit home runs, walk, and play RF poorly.

QUOTE (Ranger @ Dec 16, 2009 -> 10:55 AM) Just read a couple of pages back and you'll see that I'm fully aware of what defines a leadoff hitter. The overstatement that is often made is that a team can't win with so-and-so as a leadoff hitter. Having a good productive hitter at the top of the order can and does certainly help, but it is often not the difference between a winner or a loser. It comes down to the whole, not the sum of the parts. Some people seem to think the leadoff hitter is everything (based on the feedback I get)...that simply isn't true. (That being said, I think about 70% of those I've heard from have a favorable opinion of the Pierre pickup.) Now, you can't afford to have an abyss at the top. Like I said earlier, if he hits .200 and has a .300 OBP, that could be a killer. But if he's mediocre as a leadoff hitter, that's absolutely good enough to have a winning lineup. Of course, the rest of the lineup has to do its job, as well. The leadoff hitter is no more important than someone, say, in the middle of the order. For example, Fangraphs examined that very topic and determined that replacing a leadoff hitter with the 5th hitter in the order with a wOBA 20 points better amounted to about one team run for the season. That is, one team run in the extra 70 ABs a leadoff hitter gets over a guy that bats 5th and is more productive. Of course, those numbers are still dependent on the rest of the order and you can debate that assertion, too. But whether or not you believe that number to be accurate, I think the underlying point is solid: the leadoff hitter isn't everything The Sox haven't had a consistently-effective leadoff hitter for years, and it's puzzling to see people go nuts when they sign a speedy, slap-hitting veteran with a mediocre OBP while operating under a stringent budgetary constraint. What did people realistically expect? Figgins or Granderson? Hell, I wanted Kenny to sign Orlando Hudson last winter. But that ship has sailed and the middle infield is curently set with Beckham and Alexei. The only in-house option is Beckham, and the Sox will be relying HEAVILY on him to drive in runs this year (especially if Quentin doesn't stay healthy). So that isn't a realistic option, and moving him to DH to open up room for an infielder like O-Dog is a complete waste of his defensive talent and would stunt his defensive development as well. One can complain about Pierre's OBP all day, but the overarching need for the Sox right now is productive players. Pierre is a good contact hitter (.290-.300 BA) who will steal 30-40 bases a season (albeit at a lower-than-optimal %), has a good track record of health, can play LF, and can give Rios a couple of days off in CF. IMO, that's a solid upgrade over Pods, Wise, Owens, or Getz. Kenny very well might've been able to find somebody slightly cheaper with a .350 OBP, but probably not with those other skills as well. Whether he hits 1st or 9th, Pierre improves the team in several ways. I would only be disappointed with this move if Pierre's salary precluded Kenny from signing a veteran power hitter to replace Thome/Dye. I don't see $3M being that much of an obstacle.

QUOTE (monomach @ Dec 15, 2009 -> 07:16 PM) It's like you didn't read a thing I said. Dye's OBP is not good enough to lead off. It certainly was in 2006. Why didn't Dye lead off then, when Pods was injured? Or how about Thome, who has been hanging around a .400 OBP for the past three years? Remember, speed doesn't matter! LOL, Bekcham at DH? Brilliant! You don't seem to understand the point that our infield is already set and that we need a corner OF. Pierre plays LF and could give Rios an occasional day off in CF. Your suggestions do not fit the Sox's current needs. Lopez also has a recent history of injury problems, which is why he wasn't tendered. I agree that O-Dog is a very good leadoff hitter (definitely better than Pierre) but, again, he's a 2B and Kenny has already moved Beckham there permanently. Mientkiewicz played OF occasionally in Pittsburgh, but he's extremely marginal in that role. Another reason why he's a bad fit for this team (remember, we needed a corner OF). We don't need another DH right now, as Jones is going to get most of his ABs there. However, the overarching reason why Mientkiewicz is a terrible idea is that he's never healthy. He hasn't had 300 ABs since 2006 and had a whopping 18 last season. LOL at your "he's not more injury prone than Quentin" line. Yeah, that's a great reason to sign him. Interesting straw man argument, but that's not what I said. My point is that Upton's numbers have been heading south for the past two years and that he didn't respond well to shoulder surgery. Therefore, he's a big question mark right now. However, his '07 and '08 numbers, as well as his contract status, will inflate his trade value. I don't trade for Upton until he at least repeats his 2008 OBP. There aren't any "metrics" that show that he's "due to rebound." He had no power with a torn labrum and he had even less power a full 9 months after surgery. The problem with Upton is that it'd cost us at least two top-tier prospects to get him. And if he hits like he did last year, it'd be a disaster. While I agree that Upton projects much better than Pierre (at least in terms of OBP), Kenny didn't have to give up two top-tier prospects to nab Pierre. Husdon and Flowers both project rather high as well. Says the guy who's arguing that Doug Freaking Mientkiewicz is a better leadoff option than Pierre. LOL!

QUOTE (Kalapse @ Dec 15, 2009 -> 05:05 PM) Given that he's probably not going to get a lot in terms of guaranteed money Orlando Hudson would have been an interesting option if he were willing to play the OF, I know he shot down the idea of playing CF full time last offseason but who knows what his mindset is a year later? I was hoping that the Sox would sign O-Dog last winter.

QUOTE (monomach @ Dec 15, 2009 -> 04:35 PM) There are tons of options better than .330. Every time you bring up names, you bring up fast guys. The speed is irrelevant as long as it's not as slow as Konerko. Agreed that OBP is most important, but LOL at speed being irrelevant. If that were the case, Dye would've been leading off for the past three years. We already have a 2B. Lopez has had injury issues and sucks defensively. Another injury-prone dinosaur who isn't much of an outfielder. Yeah, it would've been better if we had the Yankees lineup. You do realize that we have a massive hole in the middle of the lineup and that Beckham's going to probably have the second highest OPS on the team this year, right? Yeah, if we gave up Floyd, Hudson, and Flowers, I'm sure that the Rays would've been more than happy to give us Upton. And even if Kenny was dumb enough to make that trade, there is no "metric" that "agrees" that Upton's going to rebound. His power numbers feel off the table in 2008 and actually worsened AFTER the surgery.

QUOTE (chunk23 @ Dec 15, 2009 -> 03:57 PM) Thank You. Speed doesn't matter if you can't get on base. I'd like for some of you to give better realistic options than Pierre. (And, no, that doesn't include Figgins or Granderson... or Youkilis, for that matter.) Look at it this way: What would you rather have, the heir to Jerry Owens/DeWayne Wise at the league minimum or Pierre's .290 BA and .330 OBP for $3M this year? I'll take Pierre, as I'm not going to count on a guy like Pods falling out of the sky for the league minimum at mid-season again.

QUOTE (monomach @ Dec 15, 2009 -> 03:48 PM) So you think they don't want to acquire anyone good via trade and they don't want to sign free agents. Great. We're the Royals. The Royals have a dominant rotation? That's news to me.

QUOTE (Kenny Hates Prospects @ Dec 15, 2009 -> 03:48 PM) Yes, I do. Kenny's comments said the #1 priority was the bench. Really? There's a hole in RF and a hole in DH, and the #1 priority is the bench? In the AL? Are you f***ing serious? Have you gone mad? But given how they've spent their money, it sure looks like it. Had they made Matsui their #1 target they could have afforded him, and a Beckham-Matsui-Quentin 3-4-5 might not be ideal, but it's certainly better than what we have now. What incentive does Kenny have to be truthful with the media while he's trying to negotiate FA contracts and make deals with other GMs?

QUOTE (monomach @ Dec 15, 2009 -> 03:31 PM) Speed does not a leadoff hitter make. OBP is what does it, and that's not Juan Pierre. Kevin youkilis was a good leadoff hitter. He never stole bases. I agree but, again, who was a better realistic option? Pods? Taveras? I completely agree that Pierre is better suited for the #9 spot, but a .290 BA and a .330 OBP with 30 SB is far from terrible. The only realistic in-house option that I can think of is Beckham, and him hitting leadoff would be an absolute waste of his RBI potential. The only real negative that I can see with Pierre is his salary ($8M over the next two years). But the Sox are only paying $3M of that next year and the $5M that he's owed in 2011 will be mitigated by Paulie, AJ, and Jenks all likely being off the books. IMO, signing Pierre is only a bad idea IF Kenny expects Jones to get 500 AB this year at DH/OF. But if he can bring Thome or somebody with an .800+ OPS into the fold, I don't see Pierre's money as that much of a negative.

QUOTE (monomach @ Dec 15, 2009 -> 03:04 PM) Jones is a scrapheap bencher. Ditto Vizquel. Pierre is a slap hitter who can't get on base and gets caught stealing too much. Putz is a giant question mark. Hell, yes, I'd give them all up for Matsui and his .850+ OPS. We could have just signed Matsui, offered Carrasco a million in arbitration, signed a league-average outfielder for almost nothing, and used minor leaguers on the bench. Hell, we'd even be better off with matsui at DH and Andruw Jones playing RF every day than we are with a rotating DH that puts up half the production of a real one. Vizquel at $1.4M is arguably a waste of money, but I like Jones' upside at almost 1/3 of that salary. I understand the negatives about Pierre, who is likely to put up a .330-ish OBP next year and doesn't have a terribly high SB%. But the bottom line is that the Sox needed a semi-legit leadoff hitter who could also play a corner OF position. Since Kenny didn't have the money to over-pay Figgins, I'm not sure who would've been a better realistic fit. Getz? Willy Taveras? I'll take Pierre over Pods for health reasons alone. If there are better realistic options out there, I'm unaware of them. And I'll take Putz over Carrasco in a New York minute. The Sox needed 7th/8th inning relief, not a journeyman long reliever who wants out of the bullpen. As good as Carrasco was last season, he isn't what the Sox need this year.

QUOTE (watchtower41 @ Dec 15, 2009 -> 01:57 PM) People have always been super quick to dismiss on how big of a dick Joe was before he left. Anyone remember on how we was left off the playoff roster and then didn't even hang around or go to Tampa to watch the series or be a part of the team? How about the numerous requests for surgery, only to be ignored by Joe each and every time with the great advice he continued to trust Boras with. Crede signed with the Twins on purpose. There were other teams that were interested, but it didn't take long for Joe to decide that he would be most happy to sleep with the enemy. I'm quite sure he was happier than a pig eating s*** when he went deep in his first AB back at the Cell. Thanks for the memories, but screw you Joe Crede. I realize that Crede's relationship with the Sox front office deteriorated somewhat when he went back on the DL in 2008 and it was obvious that he was done in Chicago, but your characterization of his motives is way off base. First of all, he had surgery in 2007 (and 2008), and neither trip under the knife helped. Secondly, Crede didn't sign with the Twins for revenge. The Twins needed a 3B and many teams stayed away form Crede because of his well-known chronic back problems. Joe's whopping one-year, $2.5M deal from Minnesota clearly showed that he was worth little on the FA market. Thirdly, baseball is a business and Crede had no obligation to stay away from rival teams when he hit free agency (I'll bet you think that Johnny Damon's a real asshole as well). If you want to know how much of a jerk Joe Crede is, the JumboTron tribute that the Sox put together in Crede's first game back at the Cell earlier this year says it all.

QUOTE (justBLAZE @ Dec 15, 2009 -> 01:52 PM) Yes, indeed I meant Jordan Danks, apologize for confusion. Ah, well then your trade scenario would make more sense.

QUOTE (justBLAZE @ Dec 15, 2009 -> 01:30 PM) Would you do Quentin + Flowers + Danks + throw in for A Gonzalez? Your outfield is Pierre, Rios, Jones/Kotsay, and Paulie is the DH. I'm not even sure I'd want to trade Danks for two years of Gonzalez, much less Quentin and a top prospect as well. Plus, with the Padres rebuilding, they'd probably be more interested in Hudson. Hudson and Flowers for Gonzalez would make more sense.

QUOTE (2nd_city_saint787 @ Dec 15, 2009 -> 12:39 PM) if its a free agent im hopin for Adam Laroach or russell branyon I'll pass on Branyan. Aging one-year wonder with a long track record of suckiness. Wouldn't mind LaRoche, though. He could be our 1B of the future.

I'm hoping it's Dunn, but the Nats are probably going to demand Hudson and then some, with zero salary relief.

QUOTE (watchtower41 @ Dec 15, 2009 -> 08:52 AM) I am not the biggest fan of how Crede stuck it to the franchise when he left, but he is more deserving than Rowand. Crede was the best defensive 3B in the AL for a couple seasons there, even if he couldn't hit for s*** most of the time. The dude was clutch Crede should definitely be included in there. But how did he "stick it to the franchise"? By signing with the Twins?