Lillian

I read the Fan Graphs' article. Interesting read, thanks for the link.

How good is his defense?

Escobar is a much better rental than Pederson. Nevertheless, this trade should give us an idea of how inexpensively some of these rentals will be. That statement by Bernstein, regarding what he thought it would take, for the Sox to acquire Joc, simply tells you how little he knows about the subject.

Let me preface this post with the admission that I'm not very conversant with some of the more nuanced saber metrics. I'm kind of "old school". Give me OBP and SLG% and that kind of tells me how to rate an offensive player. I've been trying to understand this wOBA statistic, or weighted On Base Average. Here is a precise definition: Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) is one of the most important and popular catch-all offensive statistics. It was created by Tom Tango (and notably used in “The Book”) to measure a hitter’s overall offensive value, based on the relative values of each distinct offensive event. Since we're discussing how good of an offensive player Moncada is, I thought that it might be useful to see where he ranks in wOBA. He is 57TH among all of MLB. His wOBA is .357, which is considered "above average". Putting that stat into perspective, relative to his other more traditional stats, he is interestingly enough, also 57TH, with a .791 OPS. His one exceptional stat is his .401 OBP, which is 5TH best in baseball. There is no argument that he is getting on base, the value of which has long ago been recognized. The fact that he doesn't steal bases, somewhat diminishes the value of his high number of walks. He is not hitting home runs, so if he could use his elite speed, to get into scoring position, that might make him a terrific lead off hitter. However, he is not leading off, and he was expected to be a run producer, not just a run scorer. As I've already stated. He's a very good player, and I like him. It just seems disappointing that he is not performing like the 5 tool guy, most of us expected. He is hitting for a decent average, and walking a lot. However, he is not hitting the long ball, so the "power" tool isn't there. Nor is he stealing bases, which significantly diminishes the value of his "run" tool. Speed is not much of a factor at the hot corner. It does impact his ability to come in on bunts and swinging bunts, and he can certainly throw on the run, as well as anyone. Then too, there is the base running element, to speed. But there too, his speed is somewhat offset by his poor decision making. He is not a good base runner. It's an interesting discussion and it appears as though there are going to remain diverse opinions on just how good Yoan is. The one thing, upon which most of us can agree, is that he has the tools and the talent to be even better. Let's hope that we see him realizing more of his potential, and soon.

I must admit that I'm a little perplexed by those who seem to object to suggestions about how to improve this roster. I guess they should register their complaints with Rick Hahn, as he readily admits that he never stops trying to improve the team.

I'm just curious. What is your stance? Do you think that this team, as constructed, with the pending return of Eloy and Robert, are all set to go deep into the play offs?

If he becomes the player that he is, so far this year, with "25 HR power," I would be very happy. If injuries are really the reason that he isn't hitting for power this season, then we'll just have to wait until he's healthy. I sure hope so, because he is going to be very expensive, during the last 3 years of that contract. As I stated earlier, $24 & $25 million is lot to pay a guy producing what he is producing this year. Mr. Reinsdorf's unwillingness to spend big, means that the Sox can't afford to be paying that much money to anyone, who isn't a super star.

Of course you are, as is practically everyone. The point is that a HR is often very instrumental in achieving that win.

Perhaps the better question is; Why are those who want to see this team win it all, criticized and ridiculed for wanting the team to get better? La Russa is well known for sharing that kind of competitive drive. If a team wants to be champions, they must always strive to be better and to fix any deficiencies. I'm sure that the skipper would quickly eschew any comments, such as "we're in 1ST place, so what are you complaining about?" It's not complaining, it's striving to improve and be the best.

Those who want to cavalierly dismiss any criticism of Moncada as ridiculous, seem to want to use hyperbole, which is unwarranted. Speaking for myself, I have never said that he is a terrible player, or that I wanted him DFA'd. It's simply a matter of honestly trying to assess whether, or not, he is as good as was expected and is worth the amount of money that he has earned and will earn, especially in the last 2 years of his current contract. After all, he was the centerpiece for Chris Sale.

Here are the details of his contract: 20:$1M, 21:$6M, 22:$13M, 23:$17M, 24:$24M, 25:$25M club option ($5M buyout) The $5 million buyout, it would cost the Sox to extricate themselves from that $25 million salary, in 2025, is problematic. If he isn't better than this current version of the player, would you even consider paying him $25 million, if it didn't cost you $5 million to avoid doing so? I would not. He is not currently a $25 million a year player. He is a very good athlete, with seemingly immense potential. However, he is not playing up to his promise and that perceived potential. He is not driving in a lot of runs, hitting homers, or stealing bases, which were all things that I think most expected him to do. It's one thing to acknowledge that he is a good player, but yet quite another to call him a super star, which many expected him to become. He is now at the age when he should be in the prime of his career. If this is his prime level of performance, that is a little disappointing.

Heuer's delivery reminds me of Nate Jones' mechanics. I've never liked that long arm motion. It's too hard to control the pitch, and it shows the ball to the hitter. No deception.

Heuer probably needs to make a change in his mechanics, similar to the one Katz helped Lucas to make. Maybe if he shortened his delivery, it would become more repeatable. His command is not good.

Until he cools off vs. RHP, or the Sox get somebody better, we may be seeing him in the clean up spot, a lot more. So far, in his small sample size, here are his stats vs. RHP: AVG .327 OBP .439 SLG .673 OPS 1.112

Precisely, and I would guess that Hahn and the rest of the front office is thinking the same thing. It just seems like the most rational approach. However, not everyone here agrees, so it will be interesting to see what Hahn does. Just to add a note; Escobar hit #20 last night and now has 60 RBI's. That works for me. A rental, can play second base and is a switch hitter. Seems like a perfect fit, doesn't it?

Yes, it would seem obvious. However, everyone is entitled to their own opinion and it's just one of those things where we have to simply agree to disagree. I think that the ultimate moves that the front office make may somewhat vindicate us, but until that happens, all we can do is voice our opinion. If they don't at least make a serious effort to find a power bat, especially from the left side, then we may have to acknowledge that we are "wrong". We'll see.

As free agent contracts have become more, and more expensive, the impetus to unload expiring contracts has become greater. What is the point of hanging on to a guy, who will be a free agent in a few months, for a team that is out of the race? Better to unload the contract and save some money. The more of those kinds of expiring contracts that exist and more teams there are that are clearly not contending, the greater the supply of such players. That should continue to drive down their prices, when negotiating with contending teams, in buying mode. I think that a lot of people are going to be surprised what little some of these sellers are able to get for their players. Moreover, removing those guys from the roster, allows a rebuilding team to play more of their prospects, during the final months of the season, giving them some valuable experience, while allowing the team to better evaluate their farm system.

I am not presumptuous enough to claim to know what the front office is trying to do. These are merely my thoughts. In any case, it will be interesting to see what Hahn does.

I respect that opinion. I just differ. This team is near the bottom in home runs and just lost Grandal, for most of the rest of the year. Eloy will certainly be a welcome partial solution, but I'd like to replace Grandal's production, more than Madrigals. We have a couple guys who can play second base. I'm also hopeful that they can do better next year, with the hole in RF, which would belong to Frazier, if he were acquired.

I assume that you would prefer Frazier, even considering the increased cost in prospects. Where would he play next season? Is he your right fielder, next year?

You have quite a memory. I was interested in a potential come back for Sizemore, when he was about to turn 32. It didn't seem to be an unreasonable gamble that he might still have been young enough to regain some of his earlier prowess. Perhaps it's my age that makes it difficult to consider a 32 year old, hopelessly "over the hill". At any rate, I don't see the relevance of bringing Grady Sizemore into the discussion. In his brief career, Sizemore was a better player, than Moncada has shown to be, so far. A brief glance at the stats Grady put up, through the same ages that Moncada has played so far, would demonstrate that he was a better player. Regarding Moncada; I hope that he will be the player that he has the potential to be and that we briefly saw during the 5 months, in which he was on the field, in 2019. If his .400 OBP and stellar defense at 3RD, are enough to satisfy you, that's your prerogative. I want more from the guy hitting 3RD in the lineup, and about to begin receiving a substantial portion of the team's player salaries, than the 5 homers and 37 RBI's, which he has produced so far.

I almost always specify left handed power hitters, or "middle of the order LH bats". When speaking about contact hitters, like Madrigal, I don't think that it matters much. To begin with, an opposing manager is very unlikely to bring in a reliever to face that kind of hitter. Moreover, contact hitters are generally able to achieve more even split stats. Managers don't go to the pen for match ups, when facing the bottom third of the order. Where the lineup can affect such decisions, is in the heart of the order. Having a good balance of RH and LH hitters in the middle of the lineup, can pose a real challenge to opposing managers. Then there is the matter of trying to mount an effective offense against certain pitchers, who have a history of dominating hitters, from one side of the plate. It's very common to face a RH pitcher, who is very effective against RH hitters. That's not surprising, in that breaking balls which move from inside, to away are more commonly a challenge for hitters. If there is a significant lack of LH power in the lineup, it can be especially hard to score runs off of such a RH pitcher. And, as we are often reminded, there are many more pitchers, who are right handed. It is this philosophy that has led me to be so dissuaded from the idea of trading for Adam Frazier. Not only is he not a power hitter, but I don't even regard the fact that he hits left handed, as being all that advantageous.

It's going to be very interesting to see if Moncada lives up to that contract. If you add in the $5 million buyout, in order to avoid that $25 million hit, in the last year of his contract, he would still be owed $59 million over the next 3 years, which is almost $20 million per year. Hahn might start thinking about moving him and that contract, and seeing if Burger can fill the hole at the hot corner, while providing considerable payroll relief. The money might be better spent on trying to resign Rodon and Lynn. I can understand how many have fallen in love with Yoan's athleticism, but it has only really begun to translate to a $20 million a year level of performance, in that 2019 season. Otherwise, not so much. There were such high hopes for him, as a genuine 5 tool prospect. So far this year, he is taking a lot of walks, while managing to always have some nagging injury. He has not proven to be very durable, or deliver much power. He plays a position where his speed is not needed and he doesn't seem interested in trying to be a base stealing threat. Although his quickness is evident on some of his more impressive plays at third, and he can throw on the run, as well as anyone I've ever seen, his routine throws are often a challenge for Abreu. As I pointed out yesterday, he has the same number of RBI's as Leury, with more plate appearances and opportunities. Given the tools and the great expectations, consider me underwhelmed. Oh, and one thing that I have always found perplexing; Both MLB.com and Baseball Reference list him at 6' 2". My guess is 5' 10", or maybe 5' 11". Watch, sometime when you can see him standing next to other players. What's that all about? Who is responsible for that obvious inaccuracy? Please don't tell me that Moncada tells people that he's 6' 2". Sorry for the rant. Maybe I just wish that they had talked Boston into giving up Devers, instead of Moncada.

If the Sox acquire Escobar, and he's healthy, once Eloy returns at the end of this month, the lineup could look just fine: Versus RHP SS T. A. 3B Moncada 1B Abreu DH Eloy 2B Escobar C Collins CF Engel RF Goodwin or Sheets LF Sheets/Lamb/Vaughn (whoever is hot and matches up with the opposing starter) Versus LHP SS T. A. 3B Moncada 1B Abreu DH Eloy LF Vaughn 2B Escobar CF Engel RF Leury C Zavala ??? Those are pretty respectable lineups, and when Grandal returns, they would be ready to compete with any team, in the post season. If Robert comes back, as well, they would be a real force, with which to contend. One more bullpen arm would provide some nice insurance against injuries.

I like Leury, however he is not going to supply power, and certainly not the kind of power, which Escobar has demonstrated in recent years. I'd love Gallo, but fear that he would cost too much in prospect capital.