Lillian

The reluctance to trade a young, attractively cost controlled, very good pitcher is understandable. However, conceptually it might make sense for the right package. The Sox are in an enviable position of having lots of payroll flexibility. Many teams are desperately in need of moving salary. That means that the Sox have a tremendous amount of leverage in negotiations with any such team. Taking on a relatively large contract is something that the Sox can easily do. As long as the value is in excess of what the free agent market offers, that might be a viable strategy. Why not try to find a player, or two, who could fill some Sox needs, and consider trading the precious commodity of a cost controlled asset like Quintana? Rodon will likely become the #2 starter, within the next 2 seasons. That would make the third southpaw expendable, providing the Sox can find a #3, RH starter to take his place, while at the same time, improving the balance of the rotation. Again, the organization has the luxury of being able to take on significantly more salary. If the front office could fill two major holes, eg; a middle of the order LH Bat, and a #2, or #3 RH Starting pitcher, in exchange for Quintana, that seems reasonable. Of course, it would necessarily increase payroll, as moving salary commitments would be one of the other team's primary motives, in making such a trade. However, that is not an obstacle for the Sox. In fact, that is the point. Payroll flexibility could arguably be considered an asset, which they can afford to trade. So, what kind of deal can you amateur GMs envision, that could accomplish such objectives?

A middle of the order hitter, who is virtually an automatic out versus LH pitching, is problematical. If the opposing manager brings in a lefty to face him late in the game, you really almost have to pinch hit someone for him. Pulling your clean up hitter for a pinch hitter is a tough way to go. That said, Ike Davis has been a pretty good hitter, vs. RH pitching.

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Nov 20, 2014 -> 07:58 AM) There's no way Phil Rogers actually wrote that. It's all way too logical and makes too much sense. Maybe Rogers has been reading our posts,..........again.

QUOTE (Lillian @ Nov 19, 2014 -> 05:39 AM) This discussion has been a lot of fun, and you guys have provided some very good, thoughtful analysis. From my perspective, and to summarize, it seems the Dodgers are seeking to accomplish the following: 1) To acquire a SS for the next 2 years. 2) To unload some of their enormous payroll 3) To make room for their core outfielders by moving a couple of veterans, from the group of Crawford, Ethier and Kemp The Sox are seeking: 1) A LH Hitting, middle of the order bat 2) One outfielder, with both decent defense, as well as offensive production 3) A RH Starting pitcher, who is capable of being at least a #4, or better. They already have a #5 in Noesi 4) A mix of veteran leadership, while strengthening their young core going forward. If that assessment of the respective objectives of both teams is correct, it would appear that the teams match up sufficiently in the following ways: 1) Ethier satisfies the Dodgers' need to clear some payroll and their crowded outfield, while providing the Sox a LH Middle of the order bat, with adequate defense for a corner OF spot and veteran leadership. 2) Alexei satisfies the Dodgers' need for an outstanding defensive SS, who also provides offense, and does not represent a long term financial commitment. 3) Schebler satisfies the Sox need for a LH power bat, in the outfield, going forward. The only other potential left handed, power bat in the Sox organization is Barnum, who is first baseman, and several years from the Major Leagues. Schebler probably still needs at least 1 year at AAA. Ethier could move to DH as a platoon player, once he is ready. That is the core of a potential trade. The Dodgers accomplish 3 of their objectives by acquiring their SS, moving payroll, and making room in their crowded outfield. The Sox accomplish 3 of their goals by acquiring a LH middle of the order bat, a corner outfielder with some veteran leadership, while still strengthening their core going forward. I understand that Ethier is a not a productive hitter vs. LHP. However, it seems most of the good left handed starters in our division are on the Sox. Moreover, I'm sure that the Sox can find someone to platoon with Ethier, and the rest never hurts a guy in his mid 30's. As some have suggested, don't under estimate his production against RH pitching. I would add; don't under estimate the Sox need for such left handed offensive production. We are all concerned about Ethier's sudden drop off, last year. It seems reasonable to assume that it was an aberration, as he is not that old, and has always been a very consistently good hitter, albeit vs. RH pitching only. Moving Danks and his contract, is a benefit to the Sox, not the Dodgers. If he is included in the deal, the Sox would have to provide another benefit to the Dodgers. I don't think that the Sox have any expendable players, in whom L.A. would have interest. Therefore I don't see that happening. At this point, Danks may be considered a #4 starter, with the added benefit of being LH. Lefties who can eat innings are always in demand. I would think that there might be some team interested in swapping their #3, or 4 RH starter for Danks. If there were no significant difference in the contracts, that might be a realistic match. To further clarify a couple of points, regarding what I posted above: 1) A deal involving Alexei for Ethier and Schebler, is feasible. However, we can certainly argue over the exact details eg; the Sox could insist upon some cash, or an additional player. 2) Ethier and Ramirez are the same age, but Alexei's skill set is likely to decline faster than Andre's. Ramirez depends upon his speed and range, to remain an elite SS. Ethier is a patient, professional hitter, with a high OBP. Those are the kinds of skills that are easier to sustain, late into a player's career. 3) When I said that the Sox had only one potential LH impact bat in the organization, I inadvertently overlooked Wilkins. He is still young enough to be considered, but he doesn't seem to be part of the organization's plans. Perhaps another successful season at AAA will change that

QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Nov 19, 2014 -> 05:30 PM) I think if the Sox could have gotten a better player for Tank, they would have by now. And what is to say that they haven't been offered a better player than Navarro, and turned that down, as well? What exactly is so special about Navarro?

Some of you may find this article interesting and quite enlightening, regarding Ethier: http://www.latimes.com/sports/dodgers/la-s...928-column.html

Compare the career stats for Navarro and Viciedo. Then, take into consideration that Navarro has had 5 years, in his prime, between ages 25 and 30. Viciedo is just 25, and has his prime years ahead of him. I think it's reasonable to assume that Viciedo should improve his career stats over the next 5 years, while Navarro is likely passing his prime. I'm not at all opposed to trading Dayan, but I'd think that they can get a better player for him. He still holds promise, which Navarro lacks. Navarro is what he is. I don't see any reason to expect him to improve going forward. There are probably teams who believe Viciedo can still become a potent offensive player. That may, or may not be the case, but a 25 year old, who has already had two seasons of 20 plus homers, one in fact with 25, might be tempting to a GM, looking for a RH power hitter.

Given his age and untapped potential, Viciedo probably has more value than Navarro. I would not make that trade.

This discussion has been a lot of fun, and you guys have provided some very good, thoughtful analysis. From my perspective, and to summarize, it seems the Dodgers are seeking to accomplish the following: 1) To acquire a SS for the next 2 years. 2) To unload some of their enormous payroll 3) To make room for their core outfielders by moving a couple of veterans, from the group of Crawford, Ethier and Kemp The Sox are seeking: 1) A LH Hitting, middle of the order bat 2) One outfielder, with both decent defense, as well as offensive production 3) A RH Starting pitcher, who is capable of being at least a #4, or better. They already have a #5 in Noesi 4) A mix of veteran leadership, while strengthening their young core going forward. If that assessment of the respective objectives of both teams is correct, it would appear that the teams match up sufficiently in the following ways: 1) Ethier satisfies the Dodgers' need to clear some payroll and their crowded outfield, while providing the Sox a LH Middle of the order bat, with adequate defense for a corner OF spot and veteran leadership. 2) Alexei satisfies the Dodgers' need for an outstanding defensive SS, who also provides offense, and does not represent a long term financial commitment. 3) Schebler satisfies the Sox need for a LH power bat, in the outfield, going forward. The only other potential left handed, power bat in the Sox organization is Barnum, who is first baseman, and several years from the Major Leagues. Schebler probably still needs at least 1 year at AAA. Ethier could move to DH as a platoon player, once he is ready. That is the core of a potential trade. The Dodgers accomplish 3 of their objectives by acquiring their SS, moving payroll, and making room in their crowded outfield. The Sox accomplish 3 of their goals by acquiring a LH middle of the order bat, a corner outfielder with some veteran leadership, while still strengthening their core going forward. I understand that Ethier is a not a productive hitter vs. LHP. However, it seems most of the good left handed starters in our division are on the Sox. Moreover, I'm sure that the Sox can find someone to platoon with Ethier, and the rest never hurts a guy in his mid 30's. As some have suggested, don't under estimate his production against RH pitching. I would add; don't under estimate the Sox need for such left handed offensive production. We are all concerned about Ethier's sudden drop off, last year. It seems reasonable to assume that it was an aberration, as he is not that old, and has always been a very consistently good hitter, albeit vs. RH pitching only. Moving Danks and his contract, is a benefit to the Sox, not the Dodgers. If he is included in the deal, the Sox would have to provide another benefit to the Dodgers. I don't think that the Sox have any expendable players, in whom L.A. would have interest. Therefore I don't see that happening. At this point, Danks may be considered a #4 starter, with the added benefit of being LH. Lefties who can eat innings are always in demand. I would think that there might be some team interested in swapping their #3, or 4 RH starter for Danks. If there were no significant difference in the contracts, that might be a realistic match.

The alleged list of priority acquisitions has been LH middle of the order bat, RH starting pitcher, an outfielder and LH relief pitcher. We just acquired a southpaw bull pen arm. So, if Alexei is traded, I would think that it would have to be to address one, or two of the other priorities. Ethier could satisfy the former, and provide the Dodgers' with some of their desired salary relief. If they would include Schebler, that would be intriguing. Ethier could move to DH in a year, and Schebler could be the other OF piece, to play along side Eaton and Garcia. I know that the Dodgers are high on Schebler, but they don't really have room for him, unless they can trade all of their veteran outfielders. Pederson, Puig and one veteran are likely to fill their outfield. So, even after unloading 2 of Crawford, Kemp and Ethier, they wouldn't have room for Schebler.

QUOTE (StRoostifer @ Nov 18, 2014 -> 03:57 PM) First off, no chance of Pederson coming back for Alexei, that's just beyond unreasonable. The Dodgers are trying to make room for Pederson, not trade him. I'm hoping the Sox are focused on some kind of package around Schebler. Bingo!! That's whom I've been hoping they will get. Lots of potential and a left handed power bat. He's blocked by the guys who will be in the outfield, even if the Dodgers can move a couple of the high priced, aging veterans. I'm not discounting some other swap that might include Kemp or Ethier, but Schebler could be part of our young core, and a much needed LH Power Bat.

I agree that Ethier's poor performance last year is the big concern. If he has indeed begun his decline, and last year is representative of what that decline will look like, his acquisition would be a horrible mistake. Is there some other explanation for what happened last year, aside from his somewhat limited playing time, and his being disgruntled over it?

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 18, 2014 -> 09:35 AM) My point of view is that to get a team to take Either, they are going to have to offer some sort of enticement, whether that be cash, or a top prospect, who knows. The bigger the enticement, the bigger the return to get back to LAD. NO ONE. Is taking on Either and his contract, without getting something extra in return. I have always thought that a Danks for (insertLADOFhere) along with a dollar amount to balance out any of the years that Danks doesn't have a deal for, makes the most sense for both teams. If the Dodgers would actually swap Ethier for Danks, and only require the Sox to kick in something toward the difference in salary owed, that would be a very good deal, IMO.

QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Nov 18, 2014 -> 09:31 AM) No. They are not in any financial hardship and will not give up players of value for only salary relief. You may be able to get them to swap Danks for Ethier as they need someone to fill in the back of their rotation. The $71M he is owed over the next four years is an awful lot of salary to take on for a platoon player at the back end of his career, especially one that hits a replacement level. It's $56 Million for 3 years, including the $2.5 Million buy out, and the Sox wouldn't lose a draft pick. He has been a very good hitter his whole career until last year. If he can put up his normal numbers, he's a better hitter than Alex Rios, or Melky Cabrera vs. RHP.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 18, 2014 -> 09:04 AM) If you are taking on Either's contract, you had better have a damned good reason to do so. Honestly I can't see the Dodgers being willing to give any team enough extras to take that on. Do I understand you correctly, in that you think the Dodgers might be willing to just let some team take Ethier and the contract, without asking for a player in return, as long as they would assume the entire contract? In fact, you think that would be difficult for the Dodgers to sell any team on that deal.

In another thread, i've suggested trying to acquire Ethier, for nothing more than picking up his salary. Putting aside the feasibility of such a scenario, whom would you rather have; Melky Cabrera on a 4 year deal, at the numbers you guys have suggested, or Ethier for 3 years, and $56 Million, taking into account that Cabrera would cost a draft pick.

Everything I read suggests that the Dodgers are highly motivated to clear some salary room and to open up at least one outfleld spot. Unless they have a use for Danks, I don't see them taking on another big contract, which would defeat one of the primary purposes of moving an outfielder. As I posted elsewhere, it might be feasible to get Ethier, by simply offering to take his contract.

Everything I read suggests that the Dodgers are highly motivated to clear some salary room and to open up at least one outfleld spot. Unless they have a use for Danks, I don't see them taking on another big contract, which would defeat one of the primary purposes of moving an outfielder. As I posted elsewhere, it might be feasible to get Ethier, by simply offering to take his contract, much like they did when the acquired Rios.

To follow up on the Ethier specualation: Could the Dodgers be willing to just have someone take him and his contract, with no trade involved. He might be worth the $18 Million per year, for 3 years, if it didn't require giving up a prospect. I'd pay a premium not to have to sign someone to a longer contract than 3 years, especially for a player in his mid 30's. Moreover, we wouldn't lose a draft pick. My biggest concern is whether or not he is good enough to bat in the middle of the lineup, versus RHP. He definitely is not suitable vs. LHP. Against RHP, he has been almost as good as V. Martinez. His career average is over .300, with an OBP of .383 and a Slugging % of over .500. That would work!!! The problem is that he would really need to be platooned. However, the Sox have enough right handed hitters, with whom he could be platooned. That would also give him a little rest, which might help an aging player. It all depends upon whether or not last year was an aberration, or the beginning of a serious decline.

That is close to what it might take in dollars to assume Ethier's contract from L.A. If they would indeed take Danks, in the deal, would you prefer Ethier, or Cabrera? It's one year less, and a chance to unload the Danks contract.

QUOTE (knightni @ Nov 17, 2014 -> 03:47 PM) Ethier has one more extra additional year (2017) on his deal than Danks at 17.5 mil + a 2.5 mil buyout after that. If they got 20 mil to offset the final year and the buyout, the Sox owe $4 mil more ($18 mil as opposed to $14 mil) to Ethier per year than Danks in '15 and '16. Yes. I thought that was precisely what I said. Do the Sox really need $20 Million to offset the difference? Wouldn't half of that be sufficient? I would rather have Ethier than Danks the next two years, and he is probably worth the extra $3.7 Million in each of those years. If the last year of his contract cost the Sox around $7 Million, after accounting for $10 Million from the Dodgers, don't you think that would be reasonable?

The biggest question in my mind, regarding Ethier, is whether or not last year's dramatic decline in offensive performance is merely an aberration, or the beginning of a significant decline. I understand that he was unhappy about not getting more playing time, but was there any other possible explanation for his poor year?

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Nov 17, 2014 -> 02:59 PM) I don't doubt the possibility that they could deal Danks for Ethier, but I don't think they're getting $20 mill back from LA. They may get a little to offset the cost in the final year, but not $20 million. Ethier is owed a little less than $4Million more than Danks, in each of the next two seasons. If he could fill the need for another outfielder, and a left handed bat, an even swap might be justified. The problem is the 3RD year of his contract, when he will still be owed another $17.5 Million, while Danks' contract will have expired. If the Sox could get a little relief for that 3RD year, it might be worth while. Does Ethier represent a good enough defensive upgrade in RF to justify acquiring him?

The Pirates also have Josh Bell waiting in the wings. He should be ready to join their crowded outfield soon.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Nov 13, 2014 -> 10:18 PM) Everyone in that Dodgers outfield other than Crawford seems to have "pouting/attitude" issues because they all want to play every single day. Well, that's too bad, because the best fit may be Ethier. He is a left handed bat that could hit behind Abreu. He's not the hitter I had hoped for, but he would do vs. RH pitching. However, if he thinks that he's going to face LH pitching on the Sox, he can go ahead and pout. He is not a viable option against LH pitching. He could work, platooned with Semien or even Shuck, who hits lefties, even though he is left handed, himself. However, Ethier is not an every day player, especially hitting behind Abreu. if he faces lefties, he should be batting way down at the bottom of the order. Get the Dodgers to kick in some money, and tell Ethier to shut up and play when and where he's told. Geez, I hate these modern day prima donnas!!