Lillian

QUOTE (greg775 @ Sep 22, 2017 -> 10:52 PM) So weird. I had the opposite sensation. I was so mad KC was about to tie it then I saw Avi with this amazing throw, a great tag and great throw to first and incredible throw by Jose and tag by Anderson and fistbump by Anderson so happy to win a meaningless game. I screamed in delight. Damn I was so frickin happy to beat the Royals. And happy for the fans who seemed into it at the Cell. Just a minor point, but it was Moncada, covering first, who made the throw to Anderson.

Moncada and the "Magic Bats," courtesy of Señor Abreu.

And, I agree with Renteria. That was my point. He is indeed a work in progress, which is what "the possibilities" infers.

Do those "Outs Above Average" account for his having not played the whole year? I assume that those are the actual numbers, not projections. If so, to have 11 is pretty good, for a guy who has really only played about 1/2 of a season.

The problem with waiting is that he could get too expensive. There are obviously 3 possible directions for his career path: 1) He regresses and is not worthy of a spot on the roster 2) He progresses and adds more power to his offense 3) He remains pretty much what he was, this season. If you believe that outcomes 2 and 3 are the most probable, you try to sign him to a medium term, perhaps 5 or 6 year extension, at a cost commenserate with this year's performance. If he is not willing to accept that kind of deal, you pass, let him reach free agency, make him a qualifying offer and take the draft pick, if he declines it. If he you get either outcome 2 or 3, going forward, you are fine. The only risk is outcome #1. I'd rather take that gamble, than wait till he can command a big free agent contract, where the risk would be too great. Remember, once he reaches free agency, management can no longer offer the enticement of increasing a player's salary, over what he would earn in arbitration, and they have lost control. Therefore, it's as simple as "to the highest bidder". It's no wonder many owners are so reluctant to sign expensive free agents. They know what all of us know, that you are paying for past performance, just when a player is entering the years when he will start to regress. Ultimately, it is up to the coaches and the organization to make an astute and realistic evaluation of a player and his performance, in order to make a reasonable assumption regarding whether he will regress, improve or stay the same. So many factors enter into that assessment. They should know most about a player's physical tools, mental toughness, dedication, work ethic and all of the other intangible, as well as tangible aspects of his make up. We have to trust that they will make a reasonably wise and prudent decision.

QUOTE (Lemon_44 @ Sep 15, 2017 -> 08:46 AM) Haven't you figure it out? Advanced metrics has made everyone an expert. Players don't improve or make adjustments. That metrics say what they are, end of story. LMAO. But seriously, I try to keep an open mind, even if these kinds of metrics are not part of my long experience as a baseball fan.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Sep 15, 2017 -> 07:57 AM) Because he has already started to hit more. He's missed many games. Health is never a guarantee, but if he was healthy for this entire season, 25 homers isn't very crazy. Last homestand they had listed some of his homers on the scoreboard. He has hit 8 up until then that went at least 423 feet. He has enormous power. A slight tweak to his launch angle and who knows what happens. I was reading an article about Justin Turner and his turnaround from nothing to all star. They said he spent a winter with Marlon Byrd. The first thing I thought about after reading that was he was juicing, but it all was about launch angle. Avi hits the ball hard as often as just about anyone. If he ever becomes a flyball hitter, he will be a star. I assume that this was the article: http://www.latimes.com/sports/dodgers/la-s...snap-story.html

Now you guys have gone beyond where I feel qualified to make an assertion. This entire business of launch angles, and BABIP is a nuance, about which I claim no expertise. Please enlighten me, from an objective perspective, if that's possible. Just how realistic is it, for a guy who has demonstrated his ability to barrel up the ball, to alter his approach, in an attempt elevate his hits, and thus hit more home runs? Can it be significantly accomplished and at what expense? Isn't it logical that a player's batting average will suffer? There does not seem to be a consensus on this subject, at least not on this board.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Sep 15, 2017 -> 07:39 AM) Avi's BABIP may regress, but I also think he will be hitting more homers. I don't think anyone expects him to hit .333. But if he hits .285-.300 and hits 25-30 homers, he's a lot better than anyone thought coming into this year when people were upset the Sox gave him $3 million and weren't giving Rymer Liriano a shot at playing. I think you are exactly correct. He has obviously made a concerted effort to be a line drive hitter. If he alters his launch angle, he could even surpass that 25 - 30 homer mark, in which case, a .285 to .300 average would be fine. Either way, he should be able to remain a productive middle of the order hitter.

QUOTE (Lemon_44 @ Sep 15, 2017 -> 06:05 AM) My ideal lineup in about 2-3 years would have Eloy, Robert and Garcia as the starting OF. Anderson, Moncada, and Abreu in the IF. Rodon, Giolito, Kopech, Lopez in the rotation. If players stay on their projections, that's a top level team. I agree with you. If you add 1, or 2 left handed bats, at either DH or 3RD base, or even if Collins fulfills his promise, you have the makings of a very potent offense.

This discussion brings up a larger point, which when addressed, may shed more light on exactly how to evaluate a guy like Avi. Ted Williams used to say that it takes a hitter about 1,000 at bats, in the Majors, to figure it out. That was in a very different era, where pitchers threw pretty much fastballs, curves and change ups, and the fastballs were not routinely in the mid 90's. Moreover, bullpens consisted of guys who weren't good enough to be starters. Then too, starters were expected to go the distance, unless they simply didn't have it, on that day. That gave hitters a chance to see the same guy 3 to 5 at bats, in a game. Today, you usually get 2, maybe 3 shots at the starter, and then you typically face a couple of the 3 to 4 different flame throwers, out of the pen. There is simply no preparation, in a young hitter's career, for that kind of challenge. We may have to temper our expectations, regarding how fast these young prospects can make the adjustment to the Major Leagues. Oh sure, there are the exceptions, the Harpers and Trouts, and in the previous generation, the Griffey Jr's and A-Rods, but they are indeed the exception, not the rule. The faster a player is brought up, the greater the challenge. Not only is he young and not yet physically mature, but he has not had an opportunity to slowly make the adjustment to the increasing difficultly of the caliber of pitching, which he faces at each progressive level. He comes from having faced pitchers with limited arsenals, to an almost overwhelming challenge of facing consistent "heat" and a much wider diversity of pitches. Where in the lower levels does he face Major League quality cutters, sliders, both 2 and 4 seam fastballs, incredibly deceptive change ups and more? It is his first exposure to that kind of challenge. Hitting is a skill. It does not take great athleticism, but it requires an awful lot of practice. Oh sure, there are pitching machines that are capable of simulating every kind of pitch, but it is not the same as facing a pitcher. The skill required takes reps, and those reps can't be repeated in the lower levels of professional baseball, much less in high school, or even college. If Ted Williams was right, it is safe to say that it should now take considerably more than 1,000 at bats, or 2 seasons, for most hitters to really "figure it out". In that context, maybe it's a little harsh and unfair to criticize Avi, because he didn't do, what he is now doing, when he was 24 and 25 years old, in his first full seasons in the Majors. Then too, there was that lost season to the shoulder injury, which likely stalled his progress. There are several guys, who have taken a while to "figure it out". Players like Jose Bautista and Justin Smoak may be more common now, than they were in previous eras. Avi has actually developed at a reasonable pace. After all, this was only his age 26 season.

QUOTE (Soha @ Sep 15, 2017 -> 05:59 AM) While I agree with you about not being eager to trade Avi, I don't think Blake is a good example. Blake feels like his stock has regressed quite a bit and I doubt he will be in the top 100 after the re-rankings are done. That is precisely my point, regarding prospects. They are prone to having diminished expectations. A top prospect one day and a total bust, the next. There is risk with every player, but I'd rather put my money on a guy who has proven it, to some degree, which Avi certainly has, than a guy who has never faced a Big League pitcher.

QUOTE (soxforlife05 @ Sep 15, 2017 -> 05:04 AM) A top 50 prospect for starters. I don't even know what teams would want Avi so it's kind of pointless to discuss at this point. The rumored interest has been pretty minimal. Edit: Only thing that might sway me with signing him now is a major hometown discount (a la Buehrle or Quintana). He kind of does owe it to the Sox who gave him more chances than I've seen any team give a player EVER. OK, that is where we really disagree. I would not accept a top 50 prospect for Avi. Blake Rutherford is a #42 ranked prospect, by MLB Pipeline and I certainly would not take someone like him, for Avi. Maybe a top 10 prospect, depending upon the tools. but not some guy who is ranked #40 or 50. May I ask, how do you know what the interest is and what the speculated price might be?

QUOTE (soxforlife05 @ Sep 15, 2017 -> 04:35 AM) It doesn't matter what he did this year. The contract would be paying for his performance over the next 4-5 years not this year. Too many mistakes to count have been made by teams who extend veterans who come out of nowhere with career years like this. No need to cripple the rebuild before it even gets off the ground. If you are going to keep him around make him prove it for another few seasons. If paying players who prove they deserve the money with a long term track record (2-3 seasons) is such a big issue for this club, they don't deserve to be a contender. His body of work is still nothing spectacular and quite mediocre. If another team falls in love with his one good year and we can move him for a good enough return, so be it. No one is saying give him away, but if a team pursues him and is willing to give up the right price, he's gone in my mind. Alright, so please provide an example, of what you would consider the "right price" for Avi, in a trade. That would give us something to discuss. It is worth noting that Avi is not really fairly considered a "veteran who came out of nowhere". This was his age 26 season, and he had been very highly regarded, as a young prospect. It appears to be more the case that he has finally begun to realize expectations.

QUOTE (Bighurt52235 @ Sep 14, 2017 -> 09:18 PM) I'm sorry, are you suggesting that Avi might require more money than Manny Machado? No, I am not suggesting that. Since we don't know what kind of contract, an extension would require, I was simply stating that I wouldn't advocate paying him the kind of money that Machado might receive, which could be 10 years, at $30 Million per season, or more. However, if it is something like 6 years, at $17 to $18 million, that seems very reasonable, in today's market for a guy, who is just beginning his prime. A 6 year deal would cover him from age 27 through 32. An extension for Avi should not look like a free agent contract. That is the point of extending a guy, rather than hiring a free agent. The advantage to Avi is that he would increase his earnings, over what arbitration would garner, until he reaches the point where he otherwise would have been a free agent. He would also have the security of a contract, which at the present time does not obligate his employer to anything more than year to year. And finally, he would still be young enough, at 33, to seek one big free agent deal, providing that he stays healthy and productive. Here is the larger point: Let's assume that you trade both Avi and Jose, for more prospects. Alright, now build the heart of the order; 3 through 6. We probably all agree that Jimenez has a really good shot to be a legitimate #3, or clean up hitter. OK, that's one. Who are the other 3 guys? Remember, I see much more value in Moncada being a Raines/Henderson type leadoff hitter, than hitting in the heart of the order. So, are you really confident that Burger, Robert, Rutherford, Sheets, Gillaspie and which ever additional such prospects, whom the Sox might acquire, will yield 3 more hitters like Avi and Jose? By contrast, retaining both of them, makes the task much easier. With Eloy added, they are only one bat short of a very productive middle of the order. Of course, you all know that I think it needs to be a LH bat. LOL. I don't see the logic in trading every prospect who becomes a Star, for more prospects. That seems like a formula for eternal hope, with no actual realization of the dream. At some point, you have to pay your producers. If the goal is to never have to award a decent contract, but rather trade away every productive asset, before he starts earning the big money, I think that represents an unrealistic challenge. The current roster has enough talent to be very competitive, once the youngsters arrive, providing that you keep a few of your already proven players. There are more than sufficient financial resources to accomplish that, with next year's projected modest payroll.

Obviously, it depends upon how much money it would require to lock up Avi, for the next 5 or 6 years. If it is going to take more than what the Sox would have to pay for a proven free agent, such as Machado, then the money would be better spent on the more established player. I'm assuming that since Avi has a couple of years to go, before free agency, that he would consider signing an extension, to increase what he would make over those 2 remaining years, and acquire some security for himself. A contract that would take him to age 32, would still give him one more shot at a bigger deal, when it expires. One more point, which some of us are overlooking, is the possibility that we haven't yet seen the best of Avi. He has tremendous power. He may end up hitting a lot more home runs and driving in more runs, even at the expense of sacrificing a few points on that impressive batting average. Look, it's always a gamble with any of these players and the huge money that they are paid. However, a reasonable contract would seem like a worthwhile risk.

How many top 50 position player prospects does it take to produce one guy, who ever puts up a year like the one Avi is having? Look, I love these young prospects and the whole rebuild, as much as anyone, but at some point, it seems like you have to appreciate the rare successes and try to hang on to them. Avi is a young guy, and has many years of his prime before him. I hope that they extend him and lock him up for the next 5 or 6 years, to take him through his prime. He and Abreu, who could ultimately move to DH, could comprise half of the middle of the order, for the upcoming window of contention, beginning in 2019. I want both of them on that roster. I hope that Moncada becomes a Tim Raines, Ricky Henderson type lead off guy. If you plug Jimenez into the middle of the order and add one big left handed bat, you have the run production needed to win a lot of games. Beyond the production, there are a also few intangibles that come with keeping guys like Jose and Avi. Jose is a terrific leader and club house guy. Both could provide some important veteran presence, on what will be a very young team. There is also something about the camaraderie of maintaining a core of guys, and not turning over the entire roster. It is also difficult to build fan loyalty to a revolving door of prospects. I just don't think that the success rate of prospects is high enough to trade away every prospect that works out, for the hope and "promise" of more and more prospects

You all know how much I'm loving the progress we're watching with Adam.

Yes, and last night you saw both the power and the speed. His potential is indeed intriguing.

QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Sep 11, 2017 -> 07:48 PM) Basically the favorable position the cat has put itself into before pouncing on the bird. To me, it's the same as waiting in the weeds. From Webster's Dictionary: In the catbird seat was among the numerous folksy expressions that legendary baseball broadcaster Red Barber used to delight listeners. Some say he invented the expression; others say that he dug it up from his Southern origins. But the truth may be far stranger than those rumors. In a 1942 short story titled "The Catbird Seat," James Thurber featured a character, Mrs. Barrows, who liked to use the phrase. Another character, Joey Hart, explained that Mrs. Barrows must have picked up the expression from Red Barber. To Red, according to Joey, sitting in the catbird seat meant 'sitting pretty,' like a batter with three balls and no strikes on him. But, according to Barber's daughter, it was only after Barber read Thurber's story that he started using "in the catbird seat" himself.

Boy, the book is really out on Tim. 5 sliders at the same speed, in the same location.

QUOTE (Superstar Lamar @ Sep 11, 2017 -> 03:44 PM) Didn't they have exactly the same guy you are describing just last year in Saladino? Just like Saladino this year, I wouldn't bank on Sanchez' performance to be repeated Sanchez is 3 years younger than Saladino, and has consistently played at levels above his age. It is just as likely that he will get even better. Also, don't discount his value as a great clubhouse guy.

As I posted a few days ago, his stats look even better vs. RHP: AVG .274 OBP .330 SLG .430 I'll stick with my suggestion that the Sox let Matt play 3RD vs LHP. That would provide the benefit of providing some hint as to whether, or not, Davidson can become good enough defensively to play the hot corner. If his bats plays, Matt can DH vs. RHP.

Those are interesting comments from Hahn, which I had not seen. Thanks for the link. Well, perhaps Hahn is going to try to assemble a core of almost exclusively kids. If that is his plan, then the Sox probably will not be contenders until 2020, or 2021. I had hoped for 2019.

Love our "kids" tonight. Yolmer, T.A., Nicky and Yoan. "Put it 'em on the board, YES!!!!"