Lillian

9 games over .500. If they can finish the month 10 games over, they would only need to be 2 games over, in each of the 5 remaining months of the season, to end up with 91 wins. That is the advantage of playing winning baseball in April, something that haven't done much of, in recent years. It sure beats digging yourself into a big hole, early in the season. If the pitching stays healthy, going 2 games over .500 every month shouldn't be that big of a challenge. I'm really hoping that Avi can get on track. The last 2 games, he has looked encouraging. What a difference it would make if he could be a respectable DH.

QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Apr 24, 2016 -> 09:35 AM) That is water under the bridge. Have to move on from that. I made it known I wanted Cespedes more than Gordon or Upton but the off season is over. Time to move on. Lillian is right. Maybe Hahn is working on it now. I still think if Morneau is available come June that is probably the earliest we can expect any front office moves and easily the best option . The only thing that bothers me is the deliberate nature of the front office.There is nothing wrong or panicky about making small moves now.How much more can Avi's confidence be shot by sending him down ? It actually might do him some good and in the long haul the team . Bottom line is we all want what's best for the team and shouldn't get caught up with personality conflicts. State your case ,make your arguments and counter arguments but for heavens sake let be mature enough to do all that with poise and grace. I will try to take my own advice as well. Very well said and it probably needed saying. Thank you, very much.

QUOTE (Thad Bosley @ Apr 24, 2016 -> 09:13 AM) While a productive LH bat might seem ideal as the replacement for Garcia, Lillian, I wouldn't get too caught up on that idea. A RH like, oh, I don't know, someone like Yoenis Cespedes and hIS sparkling .991 OPS would look just fine in the clean-up spot in our lineup. Now where can you find someone just like him! You'll note that I did say "preferably" a LH bat. At this point, I agree and would settle for a decent hitter from either side of the plate. Someone like Cespedes is a little too ambitious. I'd be satisfied with a Matt Joyce type, with a decent OBP and a little pop. I don't know who, but am hoping.

QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Apr 24, 2016 -> 02:38 AM) Morneau will be ready some time in June apparently. He still seems like the best option pre trade deadline if you take cost ( cheap)need ( left handed with power, back up 1st base, decent fielder),and ability into consideration. I haven't seen any updates on how he is recovering from the elbow surgery. The original prognosis was that he could start swinging a bat in June. Have you seen anything further on his progress and scheduled return? A healthy Morneau would look great in the middle of the lineup.

I said it once, and I'll say it again. To those who find reading a thread entitled "Avi Has To Go," annoying: if you don't want to read anything negative, then don't read threads with titles like this one. The only thing more annoying than a negative thread, while the Sox are in first place, is wasting time and energy, having to refute some absurd argument which actually asserts that we shouldn't criticize anything, because the team is playing .650 ball. Just because some think that the winning results should simply be enjoyed, without critical analysis, does not preclude others from being interested in discussing ways to improve the team. Moreover, such discussions are not negative. A sense of urgency to fix whatever problems the team does have, precisely because it would be a shame not to, given how close this team is to being a real contender, shouldn't be considered negative. I, for one, am very positive about a team that can be in first place, with a couple glaring deficiencies. Just imagine what they could do, without those deficiencies. Replacing Avi with a productive left handed bat, in the middle of this lineup, would not only improve the offense, but it would afford the luxury of improving the critically important defense, as SS. If they had a solid 1 - 6, they could live with Saladino's questionable offense, in order to have a really tight left side of the infield. It is worth noting that, in his very brief career, he is a .247 hitter, when batting in the 2 hole. He can turn around a fast ball and would likely see plenty of them, hitting in front of the middle of the order, especially an improved one. He's also a decent bunter and a smart player. However, with no production out of DH, it's hard to carry a potentially weak bat at SS, which is just one more reason why replacing Avi is worth discussing. Look at this lineup, with a decent, productive bat, instead of Avi: RF Eaton SS Saladino (another option would be to flip Saladino and Jackson, in the order) 1B Abreu DH Solid Bat, preferably LH 3B Frazier LF Melky 2B Lawrie C Avila/Navaro CF Jackson If the productive replacement for Avi could play a solid defense in LF, that would further improve the defense by allowing Melky to DH. Is it any wonder that some of us attach such importance to finding a good replacement for the struggling Garcia?

To those of you who decry; "stop complaining. this team is 12 and 6": I'm quite confident that the front office is working very hard, trying to "improve" this team. Does anyone think that Hahn is sitting back, with his feet up on his desk, celebrating this start, and patting himself on the back, with complete confidence that his job is finished, and that he has successfully put together a roster, which will go deep into the Post Season? Trust me, he isn't and well he should not be.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Apr 23, 2016 -> 05:05 PM) .366/.411/.522 Avi's career AAA splits. I don't know what he is going to learn down there. If he refuses to stop swinging at balls he can't hit from major league pitching, he is screwed. He has no problem hitting bad pitches from less talented pitchers. Maybe he should work on not hitting bad pitches, but rather taking them, and drawing some walks. He needs to improve his pitch recognition and plate discipline. He should be able to concentrate on that at any level. It doesn't have to be in the Big Leagues. He is clearly not ready to be a DH on this team. If the Sox didn't appear to be serious contenders, and were rebuilding, it would be acceptable. However, this team could go a long way, but they must have a productive DH. There are guys who are good bad ball hitters. If he is not going to exercise any discipline, he better learn how to make consistent contact on bad pitches. Maybe if he took the outside pitches to right field, he could have productive at bats, while still swinging at some pitches out of the zone. I don't presume to have the answers, but clearly, he doesn't either. Let him try to figure it out in AAA, and stop hurting the Big League clubs chances of having a good season.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Apr 23, 2016 -> 04:43 PM) The Sox win again, so naturally we are talking about Avi. Well, that is the topic of this thread. Perhaps those who have no interest in the topic, shouldn't waste their time reading it. What do you think they should do with him? Does winning excuse every weakness, and should we all just conclude that since the Sox are 12 and 6, that they don't need to improve anything? Today's game didn't need to go extra innings. If Avi would contribute something, it would have been over in 9. Avi is vying to replace La Roche as the League's worst DH. Excuse us, if some of us aren't content to overlook his pathetic at bats, simply because the Sox are winning.

While there is no need to completely give up on him, he certainly does not deserve to be on the Big League squad. Send him to AAA and let him get his eye, mechanics and confidence back. There must be some left handed bat out there, who could at least get a hit and take a walk. What about Loney? He's playing on the Padres AAA team. The Sox should have taken him when he was released by the Rays, however it's not too late. We've discussed him before, but he's looking more appealing every day, given Avi's struggles. Loney also provides a back up first baseman. I realize that he hasn't hit much in his brief appearance at El Paso, but he has only struck twice in 45 at bats, so he's probably hitting into some bad luck. He has also driven in 8 runs, so he has been productive. He has always been a good contact hitter, who doesn't strike out much, and he hits RHP very well. Career stats vs. RHP: 296 .351 .432 He would be better than Ishikawa, and should be available at very little cost. I'd settle for him, over the black hole that Avi represents, at this point.

Hernandez obviously has a great eye and exceptional plate discipline. To me, the big question is what would he hit when pitchers challenge him much more than to what he has apparently become accustomed. Major League pitchers would likely not nibble around the corners with a guy so adept at taking a base on balls. If he can bunt. hit line drives, and hit behind the runner on hit and run plays, he could be an ideal #2 hitter. I'd love to see a guy with an OBP of over .350 in that 2 hole, and let Melky bat in the middle of the order, while DH'ing.

QUOTE (fathom @ Apr 22, 2016 -> 07:21 AM) Think the obvious solution reading all these internal solutions is Hahn needs to make a trade sooner rather than later. Agreed. Any ideas? You know what I want; a middle of the order left handed bat. However, with Morneau and Ethier injured, who is left? I don't want Bruce. What would it take to get CarGo from the Rockies, and would you be willing to do it?

Without going outside the organization, here is my humble assessment and suggestion: Jackson has been squaring up a lot of pitches, and hitting into very bad luck. He looks like he could still be the career .270 hitter, with a respectable OBP, whom the Sox acquired. He is young enough, with a long enough track record to garner some confidence in his ability to perform. We can't minimize the fact that he anchors the outfield defense. I'd bat him either in the 2 hole, or 9TH. Versus RHP, Melky needs to bat between Abreu and Frazier, both because he is the only viable run producing left handed bat, and because he seems to hit better in the middle of the lineup. I like him at DH much better than LF, where although he has made the plays, every ball hit to him seems like an "adventure". Saladino is a much better defensive shortstop than Rollins, who has clearly lost a step. He should get at least half of the playing time. Tyler could hit against all LH starters and get a few starts vs. right handed starters. I love his baseball acumen, and wonder if he might be a decent number two hitter. He can bunt, but I don't know about his ability to hit to right, on hit and run plays. Avi should be sent to AAA, and get a chance to play the outfield and hit every day. Maybe he needs more reps, as Robin suggested, with his new approach, until it becomes completely natural and comfortable and until he gains more confidence in it. Coats seems like the logical choice. He would make that outfield defense really solid, with him in left, Jackson in center and Eaton in right. Although he isn't left handed, he hits RHP at least as well as he hits lefties, and is currently hitting .415 vs. RHP in his 41 at bats. Lineup Vs. RHP: CF Eaton SS Saladino 1B Abreu DH Melky 3B Frazier 2B Lawrie C Avila LF Coats CF Jackson If Saladino doesn't fill the 2 hole, he could be switched with Jackson, in the order. There isn't anything especially dramatic, or creative in these suggestions, but it would shake things up a bit, and suggest to everyone that the organization demands some accountability, and is not apathetic about a complete failure of the offense to produce. There is also the intangible benefit of rewarding a guy like Coats, who has apparently worked very hard, and is showing some marked improvement.

Is it even close between Rollins and Saladino, defensively? Given his range and arm strength, my guess is that Saladino is significantly better than the aging Rollins.

I was there that afternoon, sitting down the right field line, about half way between first base and the foul pole. I remember watching the ball sail by, standing there with my mouth open. What a blast!!

Thanks "Shysocks".

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Apr 19, 2016 -> 01:18 PM) Nobody is denying that if Frazier has a Dunn/Laroche-esque season that the Sox are in trouble. They are only saying its been two weeks so lets stop saying the Sox are in trouble if Frazier has a Dunn/Laroche-esque season over and over. We know Perhaps I didn't articulate my point very well. Of course, not having Frazier produce would be disastrous. I was trying to revisit the old discussion about "protection" in a lineup, in the context of this team's current struggles. It is not simply the lack of production from Frazier, but the impact it has on Abreu, hitting in front of him. Do you give much credence to the entire notion that it is important for Abreu to have someone batting behind him, whom the opposition respects enough that they won't pitch around him? The assertion made by the article, which I referenced, was that it's irrelevant. For my part, I reject that assertion, and I was citing Abreu's current struggles as an example of how the lack of protection does indeed seem to be very relevant. The poster, who cited the article was very convinced that the author had provided enough statistical evidence to corroborate his hypothesis. It just never seemed logical to me. I recognize that it's a small sample size and that the cause and effect correlation is difficult to determine, but doesn't this seem like an example of the kind of impact that the lack of protection can have on an otherwise good hitter?

A year or two ago, someone on this forum cited an article, which refuted the conventional wisdom regarding the importance of "protection" for the best hitters in a lineup. The assertion was that having a good hitter, following a given run producer had little effect on the performance of that hitter. The article provided statistical data to back up the assertion that the entire notion of "protection" for hitters is fallacious. I remember reacting with skepticism. On the one hand the data seemed to prove the hypothesis, but it just didn't make any sense. How could a lineup consisting of just one really dangerous hitter not be adversely affected? Why would opposing teams give that one good hitter anything to hit, when they could easily go around him, and elect to take their chances with the rest of the relatively easy outs, in the lineup? The makeup of this current Sox offense would seem to be a case in point. Why would you give Abreu anything to hit, when you can go around him to face Frazier? If Jose chases bad pitches, which he appears to be doing, you might get him out. If he takes his walk, isn't it better to gamble on getting out the likes of Frazier, Cabrera and Garcia? Melky has been hot, recently but he is not a big home run threat. Until Frazier and, or someone else gets hot, and garners some respect, the best Abreu might be able to do is get on base with a walk, only to be stranded there, as a result of the ineptitude of this pathetic offense. The front office counted on Frazier to be the clean up hitter, to provide protection to Abreu, as well as being a big run producer, in his own right. If he doesn't figure it out soon, this team is going to struggle mightily to score runs.

I had never watched Frazier hit, until this year. I'm trying to figure out how he ever was able to put up the numbers he did. He doesn't even look "dangerous," as Hawk likes to say. Surely he has altered something in his mechanics and approach. This can't be the guy who hit 25 home runs, the first half of last season.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Apr 18, 2016 -> 04:06 PM) Ugh. Fun with numbers. You are trying to compare apples and oranges here. #1 steroid era, vs now. Offense is completely different. You have to compare equalized numbers. #2 Full season numbers versus 12 game numbers. Because of the small sample size of a season we have so far, we have WAY more outliers, and numbers haven't normalized yet. Once the season happens, numbers will cluster towards the middle, and the crazier outliers on both ends will moderate. #3, no one is really counting on a big improvement. People are counting on career normal-ish years from guys who are established hitters. Guys like Jose Abreu and Todd Frazier aren't going to hit like this all year long. Abreu is almost 200 OPS points under his career average. Todd Frazier is about 275 OPS under his career average. Those are the biggest two bats in the line up. No, I'm not comparing "apples to oranges". I made a specific relative comparison to the rest of the League, which minimizes the disparities, to which you allude. If they can be League average, they will be fine with their pitching. In 2005, they were in the middle of the pack, on most offensive numbers. You are absolutely correct in your assertion that established hitters like Abreu and Frazier will hit much better, as the season wears on. I don't know why this is so controversial. The fact is that our offense has not been good, for a while now. None of us should be worried about Eaton, Cabrera, and Abreu. Those guys have a good enough track record and are still young. However, we have lots of question marks: Is Rollins washed up, or could Saladino adequately contribute, in his place? Is Lawrie ready to finally fulfill his promise? Ditto for Avi Can Jackson get back to his career numbers, after a couple of sub par seasons? Was Frazier's second half last year, an aberration and will he finally be a National Leaguer, who hits with the Sox? Is Avila capable of producing somewhere near his earlier career stats? Every team has question marks, and the Sox are no different. Given those doubts, again I simply say, so far, not very encouraging, but I agree it's early. To reiterate; "We'll see". Some just love to argue. That is not my intent. Isn't it always more constructive to try to reach some consensus on such topics? Here is on what we can probably agree: 1) The offense will be better than it has been, so far. 2) It should be better than last year's. 3) There are still several significant question marks. 4) If the offense does not markedly improve, the Sox are in trouble.

QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Apr 18, 2016 -> 01:27 PM) 2005 Sox were 11th in a 14-team AL in OBP. I don't think that is a valid comparison. Yes, they were 11TH out of 14 A.L. teams. However, their OBP in 2005 was .322 which was just .007 points from being tied with two other teams, for 6TH. Moreover, the team slugging percentage was .425 which tied them for 7TH. It was a productive offense and was good enough, with the great pitching, that year. If our pitching holds up, and this team can be similarly productive, they'll be fine. Last year's numbers were no where near the 2005 offense, and most of us are counting on a substantial improvement, this season. But then that is the big question, isn't it? It's very early, but so far, not so good. We'll see.

For all of you who continue to stress that the Sox are going to do better than their current .278 OBP; that is not the question. Of course, they will do better than that. I'm confident that no one here believes otherwise. The question is, will their on base percentage, and the rest of their offensive stats be somewhere around league average? With their pitching, that is probably all they need to do. However, if they end up back near the worst offensive teams in the League, they are almost certainly not going to be contenders.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Apr 18, 2016 -> 08:04 AM) If you really think a .278 team OBP is going to be what it is, there isn't one player alive that could fix it to a point where it would be acceptable. Where did I say that I think the team OBP will be what it is now, at the end of the season? My point is that we have been virtually last in OBP for quite a while now. Do you seriously want to argue that On Base % is not a big issue for this team? You would be in disagreement with most baseball analysts, who seem to ascribe a very high value to this statistic. But then, since I made the assertion, I should have expected that you would completely disagree. That's fine. We don't have to agree. However, please don't misrepresent what I write. Again, I didn't say that I thought the Sox would end up with an OBP of .278. What I did say is that their relatively poor on base percentage is a concern. It has been a concern. It is currently a concern, and I contend that it's a concern going forward. Do you agree with that?

QUOTE (shysocks @ Apr 18, 2016 -> 08:20 AM) The positions that Lawrie and Frazier are sliding into posted OBP's of .266 and .272 last year, so yes, it is a trend which is likely to improve by those additions. That is a good point, by which I'm somewhat encouraged. Thank you. Hey, whatever happened to Yadiel Hernandez? I don't see where he has signed with anyone yet. He was an On Base "machine" in Cuba, and we discussed the idea of trying to acquire him, but I can't find any recent news.

The Sox team On Base Percentage is now .278. That is just a few points above Oakland and Tampa Bay, which is last in the League. Last year, the Sox were virtually tied for last in the League, with Minnesota. This is a trend which is not likely to be improved by the additions of Lawrie and Frazier, who own a collective, career OBP of .315. And some think that concerns over this constitute premature, irrational "panic". OK, we'll see. I hope the optimists are correct. They have the payroll flexibility to try to fix this, but unfortunately there doesn't seem to be anyone available. The most discouraging thing to me is that there isn't one guy in the Minors, who could offer any help. I'd be willing to part with Anderson, if the Sox could fix this glaring weakness. Who could they target in a trade, at this point?

This slow start by the offense may turn out to be a blessing. Given the team's early success on the road, and the terrific pitching, if they had been hitting better, Hahn and Williams. would likely be patting themselves on the back, while sitting back and staying pat with the roster. Especially following the productive hitting in Spring Training, it's likely they wouldn't be very motivated to go after another bat. This very slow start to the offense may provide a wake up call to the front office. Count me among the optimists here. I actually think that this team is very close to being a really serious contender. Believing that they are perhaps just one more solid hitter away from being a championship caliber team can hardly be considered pessimistic. I just think that it would be a shame not to try to put the finishing touches on this roster. It is curious how so many were convinced that the Sox needed to acquire one of the 3 highly sought after free agent outfielders, and yet having failed to do so, now it seems that anyone who expresses concern over the offense is an irrational pessimist. There may not be any viable options out there, but that does not mean that any concerns over this offense are misplaced. I hope that the front office won't leave any stone unturned, in an effort to try to put this team over the top.