StrangeSox

900 cases, no tracing, open'r up fellas! edit: we shut down to buy time to build massive, nationwide testing and tracing and treatment capacity and we've completely failed. hooray. meanwhile, the DOJ is suing Hawaii over their 14 day quarantine requirements on behalf of rental property landlords in California and Nevada.

I know I asked this before, but I thought Illinois Phase 4 required contact tracing for at least 90% of contacts be in place. Is there any indication that any region in Illinois has hit that? If not, how are we all moving to Phase 4 tomorrow?

Let me tell you my honest professional opinion on all the "fever cameras" being installed at places: lmao

Serology testing in some of the hardest hit regions of Italy and Spain (or maybe France?) came back at like 5%. NYC was as high as 20% but not NY state as a whole. We are very, very far from natural herd immunity, and that assumes that acquired immunity lasts long enough that we can even get to that point.

Cuomo did horribly, as did De Blasio, and it probably killed several thousand extra NYers. DeWine did great early on but seemed to cave to reopening pressure in mid-May or so. Ohio is trending back up. California is in bad shape, and Newsome has been okay. It's not universally bad or good at the governor level by party, but there is a marked difference between what most Dem govs are doing and what most GOP govs are doing, e.g. Ricketts financially punishing any local governments that issue mask requirements. At the public support level, we see stark differences on party regarding whether this is even a real thing we should even care about. A lot of that is, imo, driven by political media and the current leadership of the federal government. And that's really where the lack of leadership is hurting us the most. The federal government actively denying that this is even a problem and continuing to have terrible responses to this day (let's cut testing funds!!) ensures it'll be a highly politicized disease where people reflexively buck even the smallest measures to contain a pandemic. e: Now, part of this is that you're going to have a strong correlation between "states where the populace is taking this seriously" and "public mask policies," and states where the populace is blowing this off and political leadership rejects mask policies.

Median MLB salary in 2018 was $1.6M.

Strictly enforced mask requirements plus figuring out how to safely handle concessions + bathrooms and you can probably have limited number of fans in an outdoor stadium without a significant risk of spread. We saw lots of mask-wearing protesters close together outside in cities across the country, and none of those cities are seeing protest-related outbreaks. Instead, we're still seeing them from indoor restaurants/bars and maskless family/friend gatherings. (wear your dang masks)

Both parties are trash garbage captured by the wealthy but there's still pretty marked differences between the two, especially as it related to COVID responses.

e: Beyond the immediate good news of "not contributing to exponential growth underway in numerous places," it could also be a great sign yet again on how important a simple, cheap measure we can all* easily take is to combating this thing and saving untold pain, suffering, economic damage and lives. Large, outdoor gatherings with high mask compliance and lots of talking/shouting? No sign of big spreading. Tightly packed subways with high mask compliance and no talking? No sign of spreading. Wear your damn masks, people. *some legitimately can't for medical reasons, and it's up to the rest of us to do our part to protect each other. we are our brother's keeper.

(now do global warming) edit: the current president is a symptom of the mindset you're talking about, not the cause of it

Cuomo handled this poorly at the start. Very poorly. Federal Dems are doing half measures at best. But the GOP governors and federal officials are blowing them away in terms of incompetence and malice at every turn.

The claim that we have "no idea" what infection rates are is flat out wrong.

polite golf claps from gallery, please

Need to update this chart for our new record! 36k cases nationwide today.

They're trying to do that as a pressure relief valve on hospitals. What's the solution if there are no more hospital beds?

What about the EU as a whole?

We already jumped back up to 880 yesterday, and deaths lag case count increase by 2-4 weeks or so. We won't be seeing the deaths from Texas hospitals hitting capacity in multiple major cities until the coming week. We haven't really seen an increase in cases related to the outdoor protests. Combination of outdoors + fairly high mask-wearing seems to really limit the spread, which is good news not just for "whew, dodged a bullet" but also decision-making on restrictions going forward. The case load increases started just about two weeks after Memorial Day, right when a lot of these states really started opening up and, per mobility data, people started easing up on the distancing. You're right, though, that the current waves crashing over these states are trending younger, which means we should see lower CFR's from it. Provided that we don't completely overwhelm hospitals, of course. COVID-19 projections, which I think has been pretty decent, says we'll average about 650 deaths per day until October 1st. Which, when you step back and think about it, is still pretty horrific. 650 more dead Americans every single day for the next 100 days.

My wife averaged 35 kids in seventh grade last year. Her district has 3 or 4 lunchroom supervisors for those 350 kids. If you now put those kids in classrooms, that's an additional 7+ teachers who now have supervisory duty that period but still need their prep and lunch periods. Becomes a huge scheduling challenge, maybe not solvable. There's over 800 districts in this state and each one is unique in some way or the other. The state can't and shouldn't impose a single plan on them all, but it seems like they're all kinda on their own now with minimal actual guidance on what to do in a situation none of them has faxed before. It's a hard challenge for everyone, including students and parents.

Cfr and IFR are different things and unsurprisingly epidemiologists have developed methods for estimating infection rates! Every bit of data we have says this thing isn't very widespread yet at all, and that's backed up by the models. Pretending it's "completely unknown" is just a way to not admit early ideas that this had already infected tens of millions of Americans was completely wrong, and a way to continue to say we don't need to worry about it going forward

Now that's extra supervision time for every teacher, though.

Not sure how schools do lunches. No more than 50 kids gathered at a time? My wife's school has multiple lunch periods with 350 kids each.

OTOH the state and local governments are facing massive budget shortfalls thanks to cratered tax revenues, and they don't have the financial powers of the federal government. If the federal government remains largely absent, the economic damage will be catastrophic and last for years.