StrangeSox

Oswego 308 is starting this Wednesday though it's still not clear what the teachers are supposed to be doing. Going to be fun trying to juggle my wfh with my wife's wfh teaching with a 10 mo and 2.5 yo!

T25 got me into the best shape of my life. You're not going to bulk up doing bodyweight stuff, but you can stay fit and stay strong. I started doing this one last week, which kicked my butt

We're definitely undercounting here, too. If patients present in dire enough conditions where a test result won't change the outcome or won't come before they expire, they won't bother ordering one. If someone dies with clear symptoms but not yet a positive test result, they won't be classified as a covid death. They're not testing post mortem.

You're right, the Daily Wire article does correctly cite that. The "revisions" have been misleading presented elsewhere as indication that the social distancing measures are an overreaction or can be lifted in the near future. Should have clicked through rather than assuming... What's good is that the researchers believe these measures will work! It'd be bad if we e-stop a significant portion of the economy and it doesn't even really stop the spread and lethality.

The models are being driven down in response to the extreme social distancing measures being taken, as the models originally predicted. The actual authors of that model have come out and corrected the way some conservative media presented that the original models were somehow "wrong" or that the problem is any less serious than they originally presented. If we abandon the social distancing measures now, we'll shoot right back to their original projections on uncontrolled spread. https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/coronavirus-pandemic-neil-ferguson-did-not-walk-back-covid-19-predictions/ Threads from the actual researchers below: The Federal Government took an equity stake in GM and Chrysler when they were bailed out in 2009. They could have made that a condition of aid in this bill if they desired.

So nationalize the companies or at least take an equity stake and claw back stockholder payments and executive bonuses. Stop privatizing all the profits and socializing all the losses.

A nice graphical breakdown of where the $2T relief bill goes

Tucked into the Senate bill, a $170B tax break giveaway to real estate developers that backdates to 2018 and 2019 losses

Nightmare scenario is we see the heads of the Federal government working in concert with politically friendly media to attack and pressure states to rescind their measures, threaten to cut off federal assistance, or urge noncompliance either directly or indirectly, coupled with politically aligned state Governors insisting that it's still no big deal and that they are Open for Business. Hopefully we either have some sort of miracle hard break where new cases and deaths start dropping and a mid-April timeline actually makes sense medically, or more likely we continue on current trends and the harsh reality quiets down the voices currently advocating for letting a whole bunch of people die.

Ah. Looks like the CDC compiles county-level data https://wonder.cdc.gov/ucd-icd10.html Summary: The Underlying Cause of Death data available on WONDER are county-level national mortality and population data spanning the years 1999-2018. Data are based on death certificates for U.S. residents. Each death certificate identifies a single underlying cause of death and demographic data. The number of deaths, crude death rates or age-adjusted death rates, and 95% confidence intervals and standard errors for death rates can be obtained by place of residence (total U.S., region, state and county), age group (single-year-of age, 5-year age groups, 10-year age groups and infant age groups), race, Hispanic ethnicity, gender, year, cause-of-death (4-digit ICD-10 code or group of codes), injury intent and injury mechanism, drug/alcohol induced causes and urbanization categories. Data are also available for place of death, month and week day of death, and whether an autopsy was performed

States are generally giving daily update press conferences with totals. This website has a continuously updated state-by-state tracker with source links https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Maybe I'm wrong but didn't Italy's mortality rate start climbing once hospitals hit capacity? That's where we're heading, especially in major cities.

Yikes The actual unemployment rate is already much, much higher

Perhaps rescuing their business should have come with conditions regarding their future operations and treatment of labor, among other things. Or say "oh well, change your registration if you want the loans." This is unfortunate for a variety of reasons:

local food banks, generally they prefer cash, would probably be pretty good there was some talk of cruise lines being bailed out earlier: foreign-built boats, registered under foreign flags to avoid US labor and other laws, but will get a cut of that corporate welfare.

The CCP was not accurately reporting things early on, but information still got out thanks to ubiquitous phone cameras. We aren't seeing that same sort of underground info leaking out right now.

here's the wapo article: https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/03/25/coronavirus-patients-do-not-resucitate/ if you get pay-walled just open in incognito mode

IDK seems like a pretty bad time for Congress to take a month off

It’s likely, then, that the new coronavirus will be a lingering part of American life for at least a year, if not much longer. If the current round of social-distancing measures works, the pandemic may ebb enough for things to return to a semblance of normalcy. Offices could fill and bars could bustle. Schools could reopen and friends could reunite. But as the status quo returns, so too will the virus. This doesn’t mean that society must be on continuous lockdown until 2022. But “we need to be prepared to do multiple periods of social distancing,” says Stephen Kissler of Harvard. Much about the coming years, including the frequency, duration, and timing of social upheavals, depends on two properties of the virus, both of which are currently unknown. First: seasonality. Coronaviruses tend to be winter infections that wane or disappear in the summer. That may also be true for SARS-CoV-2, but seasonal variations might not sufficiently slow the virus when it has so many immunologically naive hosts to infect. “Much of the world is waiting anxiously to see what—if anything—the summer does to transmission in the Northern Hemisphere,” says Maia Majumder of Harvard Medical School and Boston Children’s Hospital. Second: duration of immunity. When people are infected by the milder human coronaviruses that cause cold-like symptoms, they remain immune for less than a year. By contrast, the few who were infected by the original SARS virus, which was far more severe, stayed immune for much longer. Assuming that SARS-CoV-2 lies somewhere in the middle, people who recover from their encounters might be protected for a couple of years. To confirm that, scientists will need to develop accurate serological tests, which look for the antibodies that confer immunity. They’ll also need to confirm that such antibodies actually stop people from catching or spreading the virus. If so, immune citizens can return to work, care for the vulnerable, and anchor the economy during bouts of social distancing. Scientists can use the periods between those bouts to develop antiviral drugs—although such drugs are rarely panaceas, and come with possible side effects and the risk of resistance. Hospitals can stockpile the necessary supplies. Testing kits can be widely distributed to catch the virus’s return as quickly as possible. There’s no reason that the U.S. should let SARS-CoV-2 catch it unawares again, and thus no reason that social-distancing measures need to be deployed as broadly and heavy-handedly as they now must be. As Aaron E. Carroll and Ashish Jha recently wrote, “We can keep schools and businesses open as much as possible, closing them quickly when suppression fails, then opening them back up again once the infected are identified and isolated. Instead of playing defense, we could play more offense.” Whether through accumulating herd immunity or the long-awaited arrival of a vaccine, the virus will find spreading explosively more and more difficult. It’s unlikely to disappear entirely. The vaccine may need to be updated as the virus changes, and people may need to get revaccinated on a regular basis, as they currently do for the flu. Models suggest that the virus might simmer around the world, triggering epidemics every few years or so. “But my hope and expectation is that the severity would decline, and there would be less societal upheaval,” Kissler says. In this future, COVID-19 may become like the flu is today—a recurring scourge of winter. Perhaps it will eventually become so mundane that even though a vaccine exists, large swaths of Gen C won’t bother getting it, forgetting how dramatically their world was molded by its absence

potentially good news outta NY

The idea is you just keep paying people to sit at home even if your business is closed via this "loan" that you won't actually be expected to pay back

There's a $17B provision that seems to have been written specifically to bail out Boeing, who has spent >75% of their free cash flow in recent years on stock buybacks and recently said they didn't actually need a bailout if it came with strings attached. The UI expansion, especially the parts to cover self-employed, contractors, and people quitting jobs for COVID-related illness or caregiving is really really good (and should be made permanent).

The government can borrow more for free right now. The cost of federal stimulus overreaction is, what, inflation up around 4 or 5% for a year? After a decade+ of very low inflation? Not that big of a risk. The cost of federal stimulus underreaction is massive economic privation and unnecessary suffering and death. eta: some initial details on the one-time payments in the Senate bill that will possibly pass today: https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/25/politics/senate-deal-stimulus-checks-coronavirus/index.html Lawmakers struck a $2 trillion stimulus deal early Wednesday that includes sending checks directly to individuals amid the coronavirus crisis -- but it will likely take until at least May before the money goes out. Under the plan as it was being negotiated, single Americans would receive $1,200, married couples would get $2,400, and parents would see $500 for each child under age 17. However, the payments would start to phase out for individuals with adjusted gross incomes of more than $75,000, and those making more than $99,000 would not qualify at all. The thresholds are doubled for couples. About 90% of Americans would be eligible to receive full or partial payments, according to estimates by the Tax Policy Center. Lawmakers set aside $250 billion for the so-called recovery rebates. checks not going out until May seems pretty far from ideal.

No, just that we should probably expect subsequent periods of restrictive measures at least on a state or local level until vaccines are broadly available even if we do get this thing under control and ramp up testing. But also it doesn't look like we're doing nearly enough to get this thing under control, even to Italy levels, and are instead openly musing about "well really, is a few million dead Americans too high a price to pay to make the stock market go back up?" In global news, Modi has announced at all of India, 1.4B people, are going on hard lockdown starting in a matter of hours. India has been reporting few cases thus far.