Perhaps there is a disconnect in the understanding of the various numbers and how comparable they are? This is now at least two separate public health officials releasing similar estimates for their states. Take it up with them, I guess.
Indiana came out today with an estimate of 60k people currently infected in that state alone.
https://www.wfyi.org/news/articles/likely-more-than-60000-hoosiers-have-covid-19-says-state-health-director
Actual public health departments seem pretty confident about putting the total infected number in the hundreds of thousands already. Whole lotta infected are nearly or entirely asymptomatic but have been widely spreading it.
Oh right, that wording of mine isn't clear. If the nyt reporter is right about what measures are necessary to actually clamp down on this thing, there is no way we will or probably even can implement them. So we're looking at the same fate as Italy.
If that NYT health reporter is correct about what the necessary measures are, this is absolutely the future we have to look forward to in less than two weeks: