iamshack

QUOTE(SABR Sox @ Jul 11, 2006 -> 09:45 PM) Lol, I have opinions too. It's obvious that OBP and OPS don't correlate to winning games, but OPS is almost linear to run scoring. As a leadoff hitter, he isn't doing his job. A leadoff hitter's job isn't to steal or hit with runners on base as much as it is just to get on base, and get into scoring position. His OBP is middle of the pack, which isn't bad at all, but he needs to get more bases. SLG below .400 blows, plain and simple. He's not stealing at a 75% sucess rate either, his CS are hurting the team more than his SB are. Iguchi has had a high OPS with a runner on first, but thats only a small sample size. Maybe Pods does have something to do with it, maybe he doesn't. With so few AB's you can't tell accuratley. And if he does, you'd certianly like a better leadoff hitter excersizing the ripple effect, becuase Pods is a below average leadoff man and below average ballplayer. According to whom is that a leadoff hitter's job? You? Why do sabre types believe that there is only one way to do things (theirs)? I happen to believe that it is a leadoff hitter's job to steal bases. I happen to believe that guys who run alot cause trouble for opposing pitchers and defenses. I posted some limited evidence of that (of course you pulled out the classic sample size argument). Once again, where has it ever been proven that this 75% figure is truly the line where stealing makes sense and where it doesn't? That's an arbitrary number that factors in nothing but a bs mathematical formula, but once again does not account for any of the distractions/effects caused by base stealers. As for your final comment, what I was alluding to is that the trouble Podsednik causes on the basepaths may contribute to Iguchi's success when he is on first base, not that simply any runner being on first base adds to Iguchi's success (thus the difference between Iguchi's OPS with no one on as opposed to a runner at first base, as well as the difference with a runner on second as opposed to no one on).

QUOTE(quickman @ Jul 11, 2006 -> 09:27 PM) although i agree with you, I am not a huge fan of pods. Certainly leadoff men are hard to find as you point out, but in my own dream I will take a chance on getting Ryan freel. May take some doing, but maybe next year. Well s***, if you are going to dream, let's dream big- let's dream about Carl Crawford!

QUOTE(SABR Sox @ Jul 11, 2006 -> 08:00 PM) For one thing, he isn't a solid leadoff hitter, not even a solid baseball player. They lead the league in RS in the first inning, NOT ALL DUE to Podsednik. Your going to score with just about any ML leadoff hitter when you have a guy like Iguchi batting in the 2-spot along with the fact the White Sox have the best 3-4-5 trio in the majors leagues. Put Crede at the top, A.J., he'll even Uribe, and they're going to score runs simply becuase the men in front of Pods are hitting so damn well. Hitting with RISP isn't a trait thats justifies a player as a good leadoff hitter, unless your David Ortiz and your doinf it EVERY season consistently. Too many players, and teams for that matter, can hit real well with RISP one year, and then hit like crap in situational spots the next. And as you said RBI's are flawed, so lets not even bring them up. It's nice to see him OBP is .370+ in the first inning, but he's putrid the rest of the game. Sorry guys, slap and run leadoff hitters suck. For all the strongly-worded opinions in this post, for a guy whose screen name is "SABR Sox," you sure don't back up your opinion with much more than pure speculation and conjecture. First of all, there is absolutely no proof that OBP or even OPS is the be all, end all stat for what makes a winning team. There is not one spec of evidence that station-to-station offenses are most effective in ALL situations and lead to more long-term success than offenses which contain players like Podsednik. They may score more runs overall, but that proves absolutely nothing. Ask the Cleveland Indians. Secondly, Podsednik has an OBP of .368 and an OPS of .798 when leading off an inning. And as mentioned earlier, with RISP, he has an OBP of .397 and an OPS of .897. So as a leadoff hitter, he is doing his job. And with RISP, he is doing his job. You don't take into effect anything you cannot quanitify, namely Podsednik's (or any other basestealer's) effect on the pitcher or the defense while he is on base. A few things we can quantify: 1) Iguchi's OPS is .829 with a runner on first base (compared to an overall OPS of .775); however, it's only .778 with a runner on second base. Think Pods might have anything to do with that? I do. Let's not confuse the issue here. No one is claiming that Pods is Ricky Henderson, or even the Greek God of Walks, Kevin Youkilis. But IMHO, he is a solid leadoff man.

QUOTE(beautox @ Jul 11, 2006 -> 07:15 PM) and its not like i said he was "bad" i said he was mediocre. So had the all star break come on July 1st, just 10 days ago, when Mark had a 3.22 ERA, would you have said he was having a "wonderful" year thus far? I'm sorry, but when each game only counts as 1, no matter how bad or how good, I'll take Mark's performance overall this first half. There is a difference between someone that pitches to a 4 ERA all year and one who is outstanding outside of a few rare starts. Mark has been the latter.

QUOTE(Greg Hibbard @ Jul 10, 2006 -> 03:02 PM) Literally the ONLY thing that Scott Podsednik arguably provides us with over any other major league replacement is steals and runs, and as it turns out, the value of those two numbers seems to be inflated. Now he IS third in runs, and he IS second in steals. However, the runs are more of a product of the success behind him than the runs he is generating with his legs this season. I'm going to argue in this thread that probably less than half of his steals have been truly meaningful in terms of determining the outcome of the game. Additionally, a lot of his offensive numbers in terms of hits and RBIs are occuring in blowout games. In fact, six of the first seven games in which he had an RBI were lopsided victories for the White Sox: 10-4 Sox over Cle April 1st (1 RBI), 9-0 over KC April 17th (1 RBI), 7-1 over MIN April 21st (1 RBI), and 9-1 and 12-5 over LAA two consecutive days May 9th and 10th (1 RBI each). The lone game he contributed to that was close in that stretch was @ LAA, where he had two RBIS in a game where we still won by a larger margin than that (3). Additionally, 7 other RBIs out of his 32 total occurred in lopsided games in which the White Sox won, and a handful of other RBIs occurred in losses for the White Sox. Aside from the Grand Slam against Houston, less than 10 of Podsednik's RBIs this season have been at all meaningful in terms of determining the outcome in a White Sox victory over 6 total games. And all of those games he had 1 RBI. Isn't this sort of like criticizing Bobby Jenks for only contributing saves and not enough wins? Or Jim Thome for not stealing enough bases? Because the two categories Scottie is third and second in, repectively, runs and steals, are the two things other than OBP, which he is most responsible to do. And I am sorry, but picking on the leadoff man for "hoarding" RBI in situations where the game was not on the line just isn't valid. And especially picking on him for having RBI in games that we lost? Perhaps he should have given up so we could have lost by more. I have no problem with criticizing players. But make them valid criticisms at least.

Just a few observations: Well, for one thing, he is a solid leadoff hitter. I really don't know what it is, but we all know that when Scottie is hitting, the White Sox are scoring. No one player seems to impact our offense more so than him when he is hitting. The White Sox lead the league in runs scored in the first inning (79). The Mets are second (75), and after that it isn't particularly close. I don't find it a coincidence that also happens to be the inning that Scottie leads off every game in which he plays. Whether it is his offense, his baserunning, any distracting effect he may have on the basepaths, I am not sure. But, from my observations, he is a solid leadoff man. Statistically, in the first inning, he has a .378 OBP, which is very solid. Additionally, for as much flack as he takes for his mid-7's OPS, with runners in scoring position, he has an .897 OPS. Not so bad afterall for a left fielder. Ichiro, on the other hand, has a .658 OPS with RISP. One more thing- I understand that RBI's are now thought of by some as independent of individual performance and thus an antiquated statistic, but I think Scottie is due a little credit for his 33 RBI thus far- he is on pace for about 60, which is a heck of a lot better than the 25 he had last season. By no means is Scottie the best left fielder in the world. But he isn't the piece of s*** some make him out to be. And remember people, not everyone on the field can be a $5 or 6 million dollar player.

Hey guys, long-time lurker, first-time poster. I think most of us realized in the first half of last year that Scottie was not the defensive player that was advertised prior to joining us (to think we debated moving Aaron to left and putting him in center), and he has been even worse the first half this year defensively. To my eyes, however, it appears that ever since Ozzie's comments, and Scott's own description of his play ("horses***") in the field, he has been improved. He seems to be hustling a little more, going back on balls better, taking better routes to line drives, and even making better throws into second base. He'll never be mistaken for Torii Hunter in the field, but I feel that he has made a conscious effort to improve and indeed has. In terms of his offense, he seems as though he may have lost a step in the offseason, which may be natural due to his age. However, I think he is hitting the ball every bit as hard if not harder this year than last, it's just that he isn't getting the bunt hits and other infield hits that he did so well with last year. I can only remember a few off the top of my head this season, whereas last year he had several (I believe he may have led the league?). If you factor in his inability or unwillingness to get the infield hits, I think it is extremely clear why is average is down from last season. Finally, while I think it helps out other hitters (and is indeed part of his role as a leadoff hitter), I don't necessarily believe that seeing so many pitches helps him out. He often is left hitting with two strikes, whicht takes away from his game slightly because the threat of the bunt no longer exists. I think he is a better hitter when he is aggressive at the plate and he can keep defenses off-balance. Perhaps he could be slightly more aggressive when he is not the first hitter to see a pitcher, since the hitters behind him don't necessarily need him to see more pitches at that point.