iamshack

QUOTE (RockRaines @ Jan 30, 2018 -> 06:12 AM) Does it have 4WD and is it good? They all come with AWD now I believe...I have seen videos of them driving in the snow and s*** but I couldn’t speak to how good they are compared to Jeep’s AWD or Audi’s Quattro, etc...I don’t really care either, living in Nevada

QUOTE (Heads22 @ Jan 29, 2018 -> 07:17 PM) Just exercised for the second time since April 2017 - like actual exercise. Some background - I've never been great about being active. I was always the skinny dude growing up, but once I hit college and was done with high school sports, and especially once I discovered beer, my body has gotten kind of sloppy looking. I'd get on a kick where I'd try and at least run a few times a week, or do something, but nothing constant. I was on that kick last spring too, actually went for a run over lunch on April 18 - later that day my dad passed away from a heart attack, coincidentally after working out, as he was trying to lose some weight after retirement (and was down 10 pounds just by light exercise and eating better than before.) The funny thing was, he had A-fib and was actually getting his heart checked fairly regularly, and everything was good (at least we thought). Either way, naturally, after my dad died, everything was allllll f***ed up in my life for about the rest of the summer. You get drained of energy and free time is a different concept. Then, as some of you know, my job is one that is often hectic at times - I actually have great access to workout facilities, but at the same time you want to get away from work when you have the free time because you are there enough. To boot, I sometimes have neck pain that is often exacerbated when I exercise. All of this would amount to excuses, but I know they are. Now that I'm coming up on about a year, I'm trying to at least make that first step of making that first step again. I'm not worried that I'm gonna drop dead like my dad after a workout now, but I am that in 35 years I might. I'm not trying to run a marathon, but I am trying to feel better about myself. I'm a very left brain guy (if I go for a run, I have to have my fitbit going and know how far I ran to be able to quantify what i've done) but I want to be happier simply by what I see in the mirror at this point. So how was the workout?

QUOTE (ChiliIrishHammock24 @ Jan 28, 2018 -> 10:53 PM) Awesome. How did you like the white seats? I'm going to select that option for mine, provided it's either free or affordable ($1000 or less). And did you try out autopilot 2.0 at all? I did like the white seats. I think they look a little cheap at first but they are actually really comfortable and soft. They go well in the middle of the desert in Vegas...could see how maybe they might stick out even more so in the Midwest. I certainly don’t think they appear to get dirty more quickly than any other seat color. The autopilot 2.0 was really cool. Not entirely different than what is available in some Audi’s and Mercedes, but probably more advanced. I particularly enjoyed scaring our parents by turning around and starting a discussion with them while in the middle of the freeway. I went to a supercharger in downtown Las Vegas that is about 5 minutes from my house. Really cool. I think it took about 16-18 minutes to charge up about 100 miles worth of range. In Nevada, they charge by the minute - .18. So I calculated for 100 miles of range it would typically cost about $3.25. Compare that to the fact that to fuel my Q7 for 100 miles of range would likely cost about $17 or so. Considering I drive about 350 miles or so a week, you are talking about a fuel savings (if you fueled solely using the SuperCharger) of about $60/wk and $2,750 annually. Then if you consider they are offering free supercharging for life right now, that includes an additional potential fuel benefit of $650 annually and many thousands of dollars over a driver’s life should he continue to drive Teslas and fuel at Superchargers. Additionally, many utilities offer special discounted EV rates, not only on the actual charging of your EV, but on ALL of your energy usage. I did some rough calculations and believe there is probably an additional savings there of $1000-1200 annually. So the entire concept/business model really is intriguing to me. I am very impressed.

QUOTE (ChiliIrishHammock24 @ Jan 28, 2018 -> 12:51 AM) What does that mean? My girlfriend and I test drove the Model S P100D a couple of months ago. We of course did the 0-60 launch a couple of times. Not quite as jarring as the first time I did it last year, even in a lesser model, but still quite the feeling. I still have yet to test drive the Model X, although I imagine it's a very similar experience. I'm dying for a Chicago location to get the Model 3 so I can make sure I 100% love it before I commit to my purchase. Sorry, financial position = I own Tesla stock. Didn’t mean to imply I work there. I picked up the Model X last night. They let me play with the P100D version with the 22-inch wheels. It’s black with the 7-seat configuration, white interior. The fit and finish on this thing is not what it is on my Audi Q7. It’s not cheap feeling, but if you’ve been in any of the high end Audi’s, BMWs or Mercedes, you can definitely tell the difference. That’s not to say it still isn’t a very nice car, but the interior feels more like that in the lower tier levels of luxury brands. If you can live with that though...it is definitely a game changer. The performance is off the charts. Last night I took it on the freeway, went up to one of the higher points in the Vegas valley, and just sort of looked over all the lights. I then put it ludicrous mode and went from about 0-80 in about 3.2 seconds. It honestly feels otherworldly. I’ve driven some quick cars before, and this is just completely different, at least from 0-100 or so. And even though I live in the middle of the desert, I can tell you the number of times I’ve driven more than 100 mph in my life on one hand. The technology is pretty cool. I’m coming from a very tech-heavy vehicle already, and so while most of my enjoyment in this vehicle comes from the massive center screen and the voice-controlled streaming audio, it isn’t completely unparalleled if you’ve been in any high-end luxury cars from the last year or so. The true breakthrough, imo, is the software updates. The fact that Tesla actually adds functionality and features (other than trivial things, like updating the navigation or something) is such a huge advantage over pretty much every other vehicle out there. Oh, and the falcon wing doors....scared the s*** out of my 2 year old...I think he felt he was being kidnapped by aliens. I’ll post more after more driving today, including a charge-up at the supercharger.

Since I have a significant position in Tesla, and also just because I am a big car guy, I decided to schedule a test drive and see exactly what kind of service/product Tesla offers. Set up an appointment for this morning and test drove a Model S P100D. WOW. What a machine! Was really impressed with everything, from the service, to the products, to the business model, etc. Now they are trying to put the hard sell on me of course. So I’m going to take home a Model X tomorrow night and drive it for the weekend. Should be fun.

QUOTE (bmags @ Jan 26, 2018 -> 06:40 AM) Balta has talked about using our playing time as an asset to find undervalued talent, that was the role the Brewers played. 2016 they picked up tons of near major talent and gave them playing time. This trade was also a great example of why to wait until you are closer to knowing. When brewers had a clear surplus they were able to trade for an elite, cost controlled talent, not just an upgrade. That's what I'd like us to do, use surplus for elite upgrades, not just filling 0 war with 2 war vets. I don’t really see why this trade is indicative of a “wait and see” approach...they basically went out and acquired Yelich and signed Cain despite having like 7 other OFs. I’m not a huge Domingo Santana guy, but the transaction costs of replacing their OF from two days ago with an OF of Cain and Yelich (is Yelich really even THAT valuable in a corner spot?) include 4 prospects so far...does anyone really expect them to get a solid return for Santana and the other OFer they are shopping? I fully understand the value of cost-controlled players for a team such as the Brewers, but it seems like they are blowing through a lot of other currency to assemble an OF that I am not certain will be all that much better than had they just signed Cain and let the other pieces fall where they might have. It almost makes you wonder if they had to acquire Yelich to convince Cain to sign...

QUOTE (35thstreetswarm @ Jan 19, 2018 -> 03:24 PM) As the cold stove has shown no signs of heating, I have turned my thoughts to more frivolous baseball-related topics, like uniforms (a favorite of mine). I think it would be worth considering a uniform redesign in the coming years. The Sox are due for one. And especially if the Sox are poised for a renaissance: I've also always liked it when a team decides to do a little rebranding to coincide with a big upswing, ala the 2000s-era Miami Heat. I've also always thought the Sox did not take sufficient advantage of the "White" in "White Sox," or the fact that the franchise owns one of the coolest color combos in baseball: white and black. I've also never loved the Yankees-knockoff pinstripe look. With all that in mind, what about a super crisp white-on-white home uniform? The Nike redesigns of Vanderbilt are a good template, though I'm imagining even more white, like black-outlined white lettering and a super-simplified, almost Penn State football look that emphasizes the "white." https://news.nike.com/news/baseball-vapor-elite-uniform Another possibility would be to pair that with a black-on-black away uniform, ala Mississippi State/Louisville. White/Black. If too gimmicky, though, we could stick with the usual black alternates as aways, maybe with some tweaks. I think the hat stays untouched, though. Thoughts? I’m with you on the home uniforms. Would love something like those Vandy’s uniforms. Don’t care for the pinstripes at all.

QUOTE (BigSqwert @ Jan 19, 2018 -> 09:37 AM) Our main TV is an Android TV so it seems like I can download the Sling app directly onto the TV. Might have to give that a go. There is also DirecTV Now

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Jan 18, 2018 -> 12:35 PM) I think a big problem is that the owners have done too good of a job suppressing young players salaries. The whole team control and arbitration system needs a whole revamp. And now all 30 front offices realize this and all have similar game plans. Young cost-controlled players are all every GM looks for, they offer up the team-friendly extensions, then say good-bye at age 28-30. There are exceptions of course, but teams are so much less willing to pay for a guy who is about to start declining when you can have a cheap player for his 6 best years. Agreed. If they aren’t going to pay players in FA then it is time to start increasing the costs of players in pre-arb and arb.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 18, 2018 -> 06:50 AM) One of the points I was pondering last night and did not have an opportunity to reply to is in here. To summarize your point - based on the fact that the Yankees and Dodgers are going to be out of the penalties assuming no other major moves this year, next year is the year that could turn into a serious "player's market" - that there will be more teams on the market than there are players. I'm not 100% convinced by the point I'm about to make, but I think we should be skeptical of that view. Recent history argues the exact opposite in fact; the last 3 offseasons have seen a very different situation. The last time we saw a very strong crop of free agents with a number of teams willing to spend was after the 2015 offseason; there were a bunch of OFs on the market, including Heyward, Upton, Alex Gordon, and Cespedes, along with David Price, Zach Greinke, Chris Davis, Jordan Zimmerman, Cueto, Samardzija, Ian Desmond, Ben Zobrist, etc. There were a bunch of teams who went out and bought players, including some unexpected ones like the Giants and Tigers. But what happened in the end? The year still became a buyers market at the end. Teams went out and got some guys like Heyward early, but then the last few OFs got stuck out there. Chris Davis got really good money, but he had to wait until January 21 to do it. Justin Upton waited until January 19. Yoenis Cespedes literally got stuck; he had to take a 1 year deal with the Mets and then hit the FA market again in 2016. In 2016, we again saw guys get decent money, but it was again a buyers market. Encarnacion got good money, but on a somewhat short deal. Mark Trumbo, Jose Bautista found basically no market for their services; Trumbo signed for under $40 million. This offseason, what are we seeing again? We're talking about JD Martinez under the notion that it's a buyers market again. Hosmer is still out there. Logan Morrison is still out there. Moustakas is still out there. To my eyes, this is 3 straight buyers markets. The more I sit back, the more I'm wondering if the reason the White Sox have made no moves on Garcia and Abreu is that they're expecting something similar in 2019; another buyers market where if they want to keep the guys they can. Personally I hate gambling like that so I'd say we should do something about them now, but watching this market develop it seems to make more sense to me. So your case is that because the Dodgers and Yankees won't have the multi-year penalties, next year will be the exception of all exceptions. That is certainly possible and I can't rule that out. However I think there's an argument against that too. It's not just Machado and Harper next year. Those guys will get their money, but after them there is going to have to be money for Kershaw, Andrew Miller, Kimbrel - just those 5 we are probably talking over $1 billion dollars in possible contract value. Then you throw in Dozier, Charlie Blackmon, Daniel Murphy, AJ Pollock, Donaldson; there are going to be a huge number of assets available on that market as well. And just like we see right now with the Yankees and Dodgers, there are teams that in previous years were threats to buy these guys that will be cutting payroll - the Giants and the Tigers specifically come to mind. Yes the Yankees and Dodgers will make their splash. One of them will get Harper, one of them will get something else big. Yes, Machado will get paid - I still think the White Sox have him if they want him, it just won't be cheap. But at the end of the list, once those teams blow through their big funds, I think it's entirely possible that, just like the last 3 years, there are several guys stuck at the end of the January with a market that has dried up, particularly the slugging type because that's where we see it the most. The big guys will get their big money, but the argument that you won't be able to find an exceptionally strong DH on the free agent market the next 2 offseasons for a surprisingly low price, if that's what you are looking for - that is at the very least inconsistent with what we've seen every year since 2015. JD Martinez may be the best of the bunch by a small amount, he may be the best bargain by a small amount, but I find it difficult to be 100% certain of that given recent history. If it is going to happen that the market will finally run out of players, you're probably right next year has the best shot, with where the Dodgers and Yankees are, but my guess is it will play out a lot like 2015. The bolded is in part, imo, due to the fact that teams have been looking ahead to next year’s FA class and planning ahead. You could be right, and that there will be bats like Martinez on the market over the course of the next few years, when the timing is better, for reasonable prices. But I wouldn’t count on it. Martinez is in the top 7 of all active players over the course of the last 3 seasons in WRC+. When he plays, he hits at an elite level. Those type of elite hitters do not come along often. Obvioiusly we don’t know what the cost will ultimately be, but if it is anything like what is being reported, then I trust the White Sox will check in and make a determination whether it could be something to consider, even though it would be a bit early.

QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Jan 17, 2018 -> 05:55 PM) Good discussion. I think it's fairly obvious by the recent signings and trades for guys like Gillaspie and other 1B/power types is that the Sox want to find some guy who develops late with a boatload of power. I have to assume JD Martinez is on the Sox radar but only at a certain cost that Boras or JD would not be very happy accepting. We'll see how it plays out but if I had to guess he's going to get in the $150M range unless the team(s) that have supposedly already offered that much back down because he initially refused it. The power struggle between the GM's and Boras for Martinez services shall be extremely interesting and Boras usually wins. The reports are that Boston offered him 5/100

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 17, 2018 -> 05:04 PM) Add the player who improves us in 2018 - you hurt the White Sox 2019 draft position. You don't cost yourself the draft pick in the 2nd round, but by making the draft round position worse, you ~ lose something comparable. I don't think a 2nd round pick is a big deal myself, but if people are bringing it up, an extra 5 wins next year could easily cost the white sox something comparable in value. Yeah, that’s fair, but if anything, at the very least, JD offsets that increase in wins by not costing a pick. It’s another thing in favor of signing him even though he doesn’t necessarily align perfectly with the timeline.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 17, 2018 -> 05:01 PM) If you're worried about costing a draft pick - the difference in average value between drafting #6 and #15 is comparable to the value of a 2nd round pick. Last year that would have taken an extra 7 wins to shift the draft spot by that much. I’m not following what you are getting at here. Are you saying signing Martinez this year would likely negate the value of not losing the pick because we would win more?

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 17, 2018 -> 04:51 PM) Just to stress - you've projected him to be a better player in 2018, 2019, and 2020 than he was in any year of his career "other than 2017" if you're putting him as a DH only. You're saying that he'll be a better hitter at age 33 than he was at age 29 by 100 points of OPS. Maybe he will be. But if you're putting him as primarily a DH, you've just assumed that he's going to continue doing what he did one time so far in his career to get that value out of him. Hence why, frankly, I don't have any interest in playing this game. To be fair though, JD’s career trajectory is not that of most MLB hitters at age 30. He figured things out late, and I think it’s perfectly reasonable, considering his skill set, that he would experience his prime performance years 2-3 years later than most guys.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Jan 17, 2018 -> 04:47 PM) Great post and I 100% agree! Let’s just say for fun that we can sign Martinez to a 5/$120M deal this offseason. Here’s a somewhat realistic projection of his value as a DH over the life of his contract, which represent his age 30 to 34 seasons: fWAR. Value. Surplus. 2018: 4.0. $36M. $12M 2019: 4.0. $36M. $12M 2020: 3.5. $31M. $7M 2021: 3.0. $27M. $3M 2022: 2.5. $22M. ($2M) Total: 19.0. $152M. $32M 19-22: 15.0. $116M. $20M As you can see, the contract would provide roughly $20M in surplus value from 2019 to 2022. That would nearly offset his 2018 salary and make the entire deal basically a break-even proposition. However, such a move creates much more certainty for 2019 and likely makes us much more attractive to the big free agents next winter. I wouldn’t just go sign any free agent right now, but if Martinez is really going to settle for a 5 year deal at a reasonable AAV, we should most definitely take advantage of that market inefficiency. Not only that, but we won’t lose a draft pick. Additionally, I think a similar player next year or the year after would require a larger AAV to sign him due to market conditions. While you can get him for something like you mentioned this year, the same player or a worse player may cost you far more, exceeding any efficiencies you gain by aligning the timing. I do respect the fact that we don’t want to get over anxious, and this is why I have very little interest in Yelich, for instance. But for a FA that doesn’t cost a draft pick, you can afford to stray from your timing a bit if the other factors outweigh the slight timing misalignment.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 17, 2018 -> 03:18 PM) I kinda feel like we're having this exact same discussion about Leury and I feel like he added some muscle and slowed down a bit. I think it depends on a person’s frame and muscle type.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 17, 2018 -> 02:56 PM) The part where we're not competitive in 2018 and if we can find a DH who can put up 1.5 WAR in 2019 out of several minimum contract players who could very possibly do that, this would be a less than efficient use of our resources. This is, to me, the "Stay the course" part of the game. It's hard. Even Theo got seduced. Stay the course, play the kids for the entire year, and I promise, next offseason, everyone out there who someone wants to sign to fill a hole, I'm going to say "Let's do this!". We have 1 more year of doing this right. This is an incredibly simplistic view of what is occurring right now on the market. You have an outstanding player who is being undervalued due to a number of reasons, many of which are likely unique to this free agency period. Yes, I get that he is 30, and that he brings no value from the defensive side of the ball. And yes, I agree that players hitting FA around his age are likely to see length of deals decrease as baseball GMs realize that many players on the wrong side of 30, or probably more fairly, as they approach 35, are seeing a sharp decline in performance, particularly in a non-PED environment. That being said, several large market teams are sitting out on premier FAs this year due to next year FA class, as well as to reset their luxury tax penalties. Additionally, many other teams simply are accepting that rebuilds are necessary and therefore, it makes no sense to sign expensive veterans. Finally, you have a few teams like the Giants and Blue Jays who feel like they are approaching the end of their windows, and thus, have no interest in long-term deals. Then you have the White Sox and Phillies who have already begun rebuilds, have money, but are a little hesitant to go crazy in FA at the moment because they are not yet competitive enough to justify the expendititure at this stage. I get it. However, next year’s FA period will be ultra-competitive. Many large market teams, as well as some others that have been arranging their payrolls for YEARS for an opportunity to bid on a small handful of players will be all outbidding themselves. Machado and Harper will be the big prizes, and due to that competitiveness, I believe they will be paid significantly more than even reasonable projections suggest they should. Then there will be guys like Donaldson, who will happily take other significantly large deals because they will be consolation prizes. The point of this is that even though a player may not align perfectly with our trajectory for winning, that doesn’t mean we should be so rigid as to not consider acquiring him, should other factors outweigh the timing. Simply because we have the cash does not mean we will have the ability to acquire the assets in FA that we need, when we need them, as if we are purchasing them from Amazon. Doing so will likely result in out of market deals that could very likely be worse than had we simply taken the opportunities in the market as they presented themselves. I think Martinez may be one such opportunity.

QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Jan 17, 2018 -> 02:51 PM) When was he ever a corner guy with average speed? I remember him having a ceiling of a speedy, power-hitting CF from the time we began pursuing him. Never heard anything about his speed being anything less than well above average I think there was a concern about his size once he develops more physically. But honestly, he’s already ripped, and he is still FAST. He doesn’t strike me as the type of guy who is going to become so bulky that he slows down a lot.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 17, 2018 -> 02:15 PM) 2016 him and any of his previous seasons is a ~2.5 WAR player as a DH (Edwin Encarnacion level). 2017 him is a ~4 WAR player as a DH (Nelson Cruz level). WAR is generally worth around $9m currently. What part of you has a problem with signing him? Say 6/$130m?

He’s a 3-5 WAR player just as a DH. That’s my take.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 17, 2018 -> 01:17 PM) WTF is an "Elite DH"? Like that's the worst statement I want to see to describe a guy we're signing. "He's a wonderful player in the tiny, limited role we want him for!" Jackson was worth his money in 2013. It was still a terrible move. Come on, you are just trying to start a fight. Hitting is certainly not a tiny, limited role. Yes, his defense leaves a lot to be desired and therefore, DHing him takes away from some of his potential value. But his bat absolutely is elite. And in a League where you are allowed to have a dude who only hits, that is valuable. Do we really think that Frank Thomas provided much value defensively? Would you like to have another hitter that can put up Frank Thomas-like numbers?

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 17, 2018 -> 01:18 PM) The Marlins should easily be able to get better offers for him from the rest of the league. I don’t doubt that the Marlins could do better, but I think you guys are exaggerating a bit how far off that offer may be. Not sure how many teams even have the ability, yet alone the stomach, to better that offer by much.

QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Jan 16, 2018 -> 06:12 PM) Some tidbits from the article on the Athletic: I'd highly suggest subscribing. It's worth the $5/m and if you buy a year it's cheaper. There's more good stuff in the article on Moncada, Micker, Eloy etc. https://theathletic.com/213760/2018/01/16/l...y-on-instagram/ Agreed. And if you look, you can often get it for 30-50% off.

I watched Obama on David Letterman’s “My Next Guess Needs No Introduction.” The juxtaposition was even larger than what I had in my mind. Three more f***ing years.

It always amazes me how so many collegian and professional athletes can be so incredibly gifted and at the same time so unbelievably unaware of situations that occur within games they’ve played their entire lives.