iamshack
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Posts posted by iamshack
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7 minutes ago, steveno89 said:
Not sure you can consider the Sox favorites for either player. New York and LA are flat out more appealing free agent destinations short of us offering a big pile of money (Big pile of money strategy usually wins).
So you’re saying...?
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2 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:
So factoring in JUST mathematics you are talking about 6.25%, and that is only if you assign equal 25% odds to each team, and not believe that NYY has higher odds with Machado, and that Harper has higher odds with LAD, Cubs, or Nats.
At 6% we are talking 1 in 16 odds, meaning 15 out of 16 failures. Is the difference between 1 and 6% significant enough to really quibble over the odds not being very low? I'd say if I told you that 15 times out of 16 you would fail at something, the odds were very small of it happening.
Again that doesn't factor in that the first signing will probably be big enough to make the second large contract not worth it to the team payrolls of the future, or that the teams who miss out will run up the bidding past a Sox comfort point even if we signed the first one.
If I told you there was a 6% chance the White Sox would sign Harper AND Machado 6 months ago, would you have believed me?
To your other point, I actually put the White Sox as favorites to land each player individually. That likely drives the odds above 6%.
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Just now, Whitesox27 said:
Here is how I see the suitors for each guy as of now:
Machado: White Sox/Phillies/Yankees/mystery team
Harper: White Sox/Dodgers/Phillies/mystery team
Algebraically, 1/4 X 1/4 = 1/16 which is 6.25%. That isn't entirely accurate because there are other factors involved like you mentioned, but the Sox have as much, if not more money to spend than the competition and have the luxury of waiting it out. I'm liking the odds of the Sox getting one of them if nothing else, but getting both still isn't out of the question for me.
Nats are on Harper.
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2 minutes ago, Roughneck said:
I had the pleasure of flying in first class once in my life, when there were empty seats and my aunt who worked for American was able to get me moved up. Let me tell you, it's amazing. Someone about to make hundreds of millions of dollars is going to pop for first class, and he'll take free champagne with his Zzzquil.
He wouldn’t even be flying commercial.
He’d be on a private jet
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4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:
Isn't that what I said in the last line where I said "they won't drag themselves out of their old habits even when they've been proven to fail"?
I’m not interested in rehashing our opinions on the last 10-15 years, but if you have reached the conclusion that KW isn’t willing to be ultra aggressive in shaping the big league club, I don’t know what team you’ve been watching.
Additionally, this Club and this FO is in a position of unparalleled flexibility. They won’t throw that away on players that don’t significantly move the needle, but they will absolutely take risks on those that do.
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4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:
Here's the trick:
2k5 posted how, with inflation of salaries, ARoid's original deal would be more than a $600 million deal today. Baseball has done a better job of holding down the growth of these top line salaries than any other sport, and that has made these 2 guys, in my eyes, the likeliest place where you can find value on the FA market. If they are $35 million a year players and you get 5 WAR for each of them, during the seasons that matter - you have gotten that performance for $7 million per WAR, which is incredible value compared to the part of the free agent market the White Sox have played previously.
Using that logic, buying both of those guys is the right decision. The problem - it is the kind of aggressive thinking that the White Sox aren't likely to do. They'll look at all the other logic here - "We can't have half our payroll tied up in 2 players", "We need the ability to go sign player x to an additional position", and that will win out.
Giving out $700 million in contracts to these 2 is better money than anything the White Sox have spent in the free agent market this decade. That's why they won't do it, because they won't drag themselves out of their old habits even when they've been proven to fail.
Remember who remains the Executive VP of the White Sox.
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13 minutes ago, Leonard Zelig said:
Do you have some insider info? Seems like you've made a few subtle comments like this.
Good observation.
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1 minute ago, ptatc said:
I know but its like the guy from Philadelphia on the radio talking about the bears-eagles game you said why would Machado go to a second fiddle team like the Sox.
I think most of the nation will be stunned if either player signs with the Sox.
Oh absolutely...although they will all say they saw it coming because the Sox have the $ and the farm system.
To be fair, we have seen a pretty significant shift from where we were just entering the offseason, but still...considering we should probably be in the top 2 or 3 for both players, it’s pretty obnoxious how much of an afterthought we still are.
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6 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:
And I don’t buy for a second the Nationals have made a giant new offer for Harper. That sounds like an obvious Boras plant and Jim Bowden being the messenger makes that only more obvious.
Yeah, the real question is do they have interest still at $330m or so, despite the Corbin signing?
I have to believe Rizzo and Lerner discussed this possibility before deciding on Corbin.
What they decided is anyone’s guess.
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3 minutes ago, ptatc said:
Listening to MLB radio in the car earlier and their speculation was that with the new Nats offer of well over 300 million, Harper was going to have a hard time choosing between LA and the Nats. They also said that Machado seemed to be deciding between his desire to play for NY and the Phillies money. At the very end they said the White Sox are still talking to both.
It’s senseless to put any stock in these national shows. This is about ratings for them. White Sox interest doesn’t particularly drive ratings.
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7 minutes ago, Roughneck said:
I honestly don't think the Sox signing Machado first would hurt the market for Harper. The Sox have way more money to spend than any other team, and *could* easily sign both players. So even if the Sox nab Machado and tell Harper the deal is off the table, teams would still think the Sox are able to sign Harper. Hahn would just make vague comments like "we're looking at all ways to improve the team" and would never come out and say the Harper offer was pulled (I don't think he's even allowed to). I really don't think either player is all that concerned about losing the Sox as leverage.
Boras appears to be waiting on Machado to sign first, actually. I initially thought this would be a risk if the Sox were to sign Machado, particularly if Harper was disinterested in Philly. That may have changed, however, with their meeting with the Nats before Christmas. This presents a nice fallback option for Harper. Additionally, Boras and Co may be under the impression that a White Sox signing of Machado would not eliminate their interest in Harper.
They seem to be willing to take the risk of having their market shrunk for the benefit of being able to build off of whatever Machado’s number ends of being.
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13 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:
The reality is, if the Sox actually do sign one of them, the odds are extremely high that they withdraw from the process with the other one. I'd even be willing to bet that both players know that this is the White Sox position and would fully expect that both players have been told that the first to accept an offer is the one they will sign.
I wouldn’t be so sure...
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12 minutes ago, G&T said:
It depends on his source. The Sox seem to be using Levine and Nightengale so I don’t think Rosenthal got this from them.
Rosenthal is speaking generally. I know he specifically says Lozano is barely engaging teams, but there was definitely some activity yesterday. Whether that was directly with the agent or internally amongst the club(s), there was definitely activity.
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4 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:
The big problem is defining what credibility even is in 2019. Most of the replies are debating the value of the information and not what the information actually means.
That would just be a Ken Rosenthal/Jeff Passan thread.
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17 minutes ago, fathom said:
This is putting together a few tweets, but sounds like Heyman was just on WFAN and said Yanks and Phillies hadn't made official offers to Manny as of a few days ago and that he doubts the Sox get him.
Heyman also knows the Sox are important to Boras.
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52 minutes ago, Blackout Friday said:
Which is what?
not doubting you, just been busy all day and maybe I missed something.
Reports that the Sox are willing to offer 10 years. Reports that the Phillies and Nats are meeting or have met with Harper. Followed by reports stating that the Sox won’t go over 7 years.
Doesn’t take too much to realize that agents are trying to bolster the market, while the Sox are trying to mitigate the bidding.
Leads one to believe that the Sox have offers that agents might be trying to drive up.
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3 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:
As long as you believe what Bruce Levine is reporting is an obvious White Sox fueled plant, there is plenty of reason to be optimistic.
What happened today was exactly what one might expect to happen if the White Sox were right in the middle of these things
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6 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:
He either has to be, bids are much lower than thought, or the Sox put on one helluva pitch.
I don’t mind what he’s saying because I get that there are reasons for saying certain things.
My problem is evidenced by your conclusion - it’s basically impossible to reconcile what he’s actually saying.
I suspect the winning offers will be lower than anticipated. What I don’t believe is that the deals will be for less than 8 years, minimum, and more likely to be 10. If one of these guys signs a 7 year deal, you are basically signing him to a 3-4 year deal with insurance in the case that some catastrophic injury or massive drop off in performance occurs.
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26 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:
So is he saying the top bids are much lower than we have been lead to believe?
No, he’s making shit up as he goes
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3 minutes ago, BamaDoc said:
I was thinking about this is regard to no Machado/Harper thread. That thread has gotten so long I wanted to split this out to get opinions. Nick Senzel is the Reds top prospect, 60 FV, #6 overall in baseball per MLB. That is just behind Eloy and ahead of Kopech for reference. He is a third baseman which we certainly could use. He is blocked at the MLB level to the point that they are talking of trying to get his bat in at 2b or even CF. Suarez is ahead of him at third. A 4 plus WAR player, signed to a six year extension at 60 million. The Reds seem to be interested in going for it rather than rebuilding so while I would be happy to get Suarez, they probably keep him. They seem to be looking for more pitching and CF. While I don't see a MLB ready Sox CF player could Carlos Rodon and a mid prospect get something done? If they wanted prospects would you substitute Cease for Rodon? Just wanted to toss this out but it seems like they could move one of their controlled third basemen rather than play Senzel out of position. They would still have India in the pipeline for down the road.(I consider India to far from MLB to target at present).
So something along Rodon + Basabe or Walker for Senzel or Suarez(May have to add more if Suarez with 6 yrs control )
Gonna take a LOT more than that, if they would even consider it. I know they had Senzel in the OF, but who knows with Puig and Kemp now.
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9 minutes ago, bmags said:
I think Heyman was mistaken. Passan mentions no four year extension. He probably just misunderstood someone saying that when the player option is executed it’s a guaranteed 4 year contract, not an additional 4 years.
He also doesn’t mention anything about the terms of the deal. He obviously doesn’t know details.
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24 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:
One more argument for moving to Portland, lol.
Much closer to the Japanese market. Just don’t have the opposing teams staying at the DoubleTree.
I would have thought making them stay there would be a great advantage.
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1 minute ago, DaGame2584 said:
Remember when Delmonico had a Instagram post and Harper liked it then signed with the Sox? Lol, me either. This is weak. Folks are acting like ESPN is breaking in their program to announce the signing. Relax he might just be trolling folks to see their reactions and laughing with friends at a party.
I would totally do that if the Yankees weren’t offering me what I was worth...:)
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4 minutes ago, beckham15 said:
My question would be and this is my biggest concern about the Cubs sweeping him out from under us is.....would Harper agree to a backloaded contract though to give the Cubs flexibility to make the signing a possibility with opts outs starting say 3 years down the road so he can win now, play awhile with Bryant and still collect his big pay day at age 29-30 after trout re ups.
That doesn’t help them from a tax perspective.
Machado signs with Padres 10/300
in The Diamond Club
Posted
Yeah, I still think it would be a long shot. And that is indeed a LOT of money. Franchise value would see significant gains by signing both players, including increases in revenues as well as relevance.