iamshack

Well, I think there is a difference in what kind of innings these guys are pitching. There are "stressful" innings and "non-stressful" innings. If you ask any Indians, Red Sox, or White Sox fan how Riske does in stressful innings, you'll get the same answer. To quote from a favorite commercial of mine, he folds like a lawn chair. He does, however, seem to do fine in non-stressful innings where the game is not on the line. I think many of his would-be suitors recognize that and therefore hesitate to give him big dollars...

QUOTE(witesoxfan @ Nov 28, 2007 -> 08:29 PM) Really though, I perhaps do it too much; I get pissy pretty quickly, especially when it comes to baseball economics and statistics. However, whenever someone talks negatively about the Sox yet in high regard of the Twins, Tigers, or Indians, and a person then questions their fanhood by saying "But why be on Sox talk? I'm sure there's Twins talk down the dial," I feel I have the right to speak in a negative tone to that response; I'm merely fighting fire with fire. And then when he suggests that Crede and Contreras are good, when Contreras is 47 (or who knows how old) and coming off a year with a 5.50 ERA and Crede is coming off back surgery, I'll get pissy too because said person is lying. I also am not a huge fan of cliches, and suggesting that one franchise is better than the other because of "1 World Series in 3 years" (which is the third shortest time frame you could bring up) while not mentioning how well the organizations are actually run and the positions all 3-4 franchises are put into each and every year gets me too. First of all, the White Sox World Series run, though aided by talent, was full of luck as well; had the Sox not won game 2 of the ALCS, they could have very easily lost that series in Anaheim. Secondly, the organization has put itself in a pretty bad position since about the Vazquez trade (good as he was last year, having Chris Young in CF would solve a lot of problems, and the Sox would be able to put $20+ million more towards the rotation along with having McCarthy in the 4 spot next year); finally, the Indians were a game away from the World Series while Detroit actually made it to the World Series, so that in itself is a great accomplishment; I really don't understand how a World Series title in 2005 suddenly makes the White Sox a superior franchise at this exact moment in time to Cleveland and Detroit because they don't have one. People can be pissed about the people who look negatively upon these people all they want to; they are just as much in the wrong - if not less - as those who are blind homers (you are not, but there are some one here who qualify); so if people are to be critical of people who look upon this franchise negatively, they should be just as critical of those who look upon this franchise positively. The organization is getting better as putting the team in the best possible position to succeed; it's still not there yet. The thing I don't understand is the connections people make in their minds about why a player struggles. Of course the vast majority of us are not privy to inside information on what is going on with a player physically or mentally, other than what we read in the press, or what we hear from a source. So we try to connect the dots and come up with answers based upon what it is that we do know. Which is often a medical diagnosis or anecdotal evidence from the game in the past (such as the way age affects players on average as their careers progress). But we simply don't know enough information to say that these speculations are accurate. And we must remember that. Answer me this: If Jose Contreras is 47 or whatever it is you say he is (and I know you are exaggerating), how is it that he was able to dominate the league for a year when he was 45? He was old as hell in mid-05 to mid-06, why did that not preclude him from performing that way then? So logic says if he was able to be old as hell then and dominate, he should be able to be old as hell now and dominate. Now clearly I understand that all humans reach a point at which their bodies deteriorate. That deterioration makes it impossible to perform at a level which is necessary to be an effective professional sports player. But until you see the physical results of that deterioration, you simply cannot say he sucks because he is old. Jose still has a great arm. He still has great stuff. He certainly has the ability to get hitters out at a tremendous rate in major league baseball, IMHO. What else do we know about Jose? He is sort of weak mentally. He gets flustered easily, at least on the baseball field. And what else do we know? His wife left him. His family structure basically collapsed. Now I am not making excuses for him- plenty of ballplayers have played through situations like that- even excelled in them. But I don't think it's fair to ignore something like that either, especially given what we've seen in Jose's history before. I think he can still be a good pitcher in this league. If he did it when he was 2 years ago, he can do it still now. He still has a great arm. As for Crede, the same situation applies. Joe has had a bad back for several years now. This did not simply creep up at the end of 2006 for the first time. He played with the back situation in 05' and 06', and did quite well. I have no doubts that if he has alleviated most of the pain, he can play quite well with it again. Possibly even better. How can anyone say whether he will never return to the player he was at the end of 05' and most of 06' as of this moment? I understand things are not perfect with the White Sox right now. But they aren't absolutely horrific either. And I have no problem with people being critical of the organization here- that's part of why we all come here. But eventually the negativity starts spreading and people begin adopting that attitude without question- to the point where the overall viewpoint of the team and organization is no longer accurate. I feel that is what has happened here. They say perception is reality, and that is the reality here at Soxtalk- that the organization is in a miserable state. Yet that perception exists here, not on the field, which is all that matters.

QUOTE(CWSGuy406 @ Nov 28, 2007 -> 09:05 PM) That's dumb as hell. Konerko's best offensive season would be Thome's 9th or 10th best season, making your comparison absolutely brutal. Thome's declining from a HoF quality peak, Konerko will be declining from a pretty-decent player's quality peak. Huge huge difference. If Konerko is our first-baseman when he's 37, we're going to be in a lot of trouble. Dumb as hell, eh? Brilliant way to engage me in an intelligent debate. The comparison to Thome was made because of their physical skill-set, not their actual statistical performance. Basically, the manner in which I made the comparison was that they are both slow, power-hitting first basemen/dh types. Thome certainly has had a far more prolific career than Konerko. Thome walks at a far greater rate, and has a career .565 slugging percentage, while Konerko has a career .495 slugging percentage. However, the ability to draw walks has little to do with any physical difference between the two (unless you want to argue that Thome has better eyesight or something). In the past 4 years, Konerko has a slugging percentage of about .528 or so. During that same age range, Thome had a slugging percentage of about .565 or so. That's certainly close enough to make a comparison based upon their actual physical characteristics. Thome has actually increased his slugging percentage as he reached his age 32-37 years. I don't know if Paulie will mirror that trend, but as age catches up with a player, it certainly doesn't tend to decrease his power numbers ( at least not between the ages of 32-37), but rather other things, like speed, agility, susceptibility to injury. Now that last thing is clearly an important factor, which I will address now. There are certainly a lot of doctors at Soxtalk these days. Yes, I have heard of Paulie's arthritic hip condition. Are any of us really knowledgeable enough of Paulie's hip to know how this has begun to affect his swing? His ability to hit for power? Is anyone suggesting Paulie's #'s were actually affected last season by this condition? Is the reason his slugging percentage dropped 60 points from 06' to 07' because of that condition? Perhaps Konerko was a poor example because of his special medical status. And while no one here can say either way how or when this condition will begin affecting him, or if it already has, how it will affect his baseball swing, I do not see anything presently which suggests the condition is negatively affecting his ability to play at the level he was just 1 season ago. The point of my previous post was that the White Sox offense did not struggle so badly last season because everyone suddenly got old. While that may be something to watch in the future, it simply cannot be argued that everyone got bad on the Sox because they turned 31 or 32. Medicine today is far too advanced and players are in far too good of shape to see their careers entering a drastically reduced level of performance at those ages. The offense will bounce back in 08'. It may not reach the level it did in 06', but it certainly will be better than in 07'. The Tigers are older in the field than the White Sox, yet they are considered one of the AL's best teams, while the Sox are considered a fourth or fifth place ballclub. I'm sorry, I'm just not buying that because of one crappy season.

QUOTE(CWSGuy406 @ Nov 28, 2007 -> 07:40 PM) Why won't Renteria be a great bat in the AL? Because he had one bad year for the Red Sox? That ain't faulty logic at all... As far as the Tigers' offensive core being a year older, the same can be said about our offense. Thome probably won't stay healthy for a whole year -- he'll be a force when he is healthy, but he's what, 37? Dye's numbers last season were bad but not awful -- I'd expect him to put up numbers closer to 2005 than 2006 or '07. Konerko had a down year but he's 32 -- he's not going to be a whole lot better than 2007. And there's no comparison between Cabrera and Renteria. The past three years Renteria's OPS+ is about 105, Cabrera's is about 90. Renteria is a much better offensive player. I disagree with you, but don't have the energy to argue the whole thing through. But as for Paulie...what about his skill set makes you believe he won't still be a force when he is 37, much like Thome is now?

QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Nov 28, 2007 -> 07:51 PM) Here's the question. In a FA, if you get in on the bidding to drive the price up, you usually expect to hurt your bidding opponent by making them spend more even if you lose. But in the trade market, if we're in on this...then wouldn't we expect that we'd be helping out the Twins by driving up the baseline of what they could get? I.e. The Yankees offer Hughes and Cabrera, the Twins counter by saying we've offered Gio, DLS, and Fields, and the Yankees have to beat that if they want him? It seems to me like KW would not be doing his job if he didn't at least look into this... Additionally, who knows if we are actually in it at all....these lead-ins are done by interns who don't do their homework all the time...

QUOTE(CWSGuy406 @ Nov 28, 2007 -> 06:41 PM) But they are far apart. Detroit scored 200 more runs than the Sox did last season. They've added a great bat in Renteria and while Ordonez and Granderson may see some regression, that will be balanced out by massive improvement in LF (just not having Monroe there will do wonders). But are they, really? As Carlos Guillen, Magglio Ordonez, Ivan Rodriguez, Gary Sheffield, Edgar Renteria and Placido Polanco all get a year older? Don't you think our run production in 07' was a bit of an anomaly? Do you really think we are going to be last in runs scored again in 08'? In 06' we scored 46 more runs than the Tigers did. They added Sheffield, Maggs had a career year, and Granderson had an outstanding season. Meanwhile, Dye had a terrible year, Konerko had a down year, Thome was oft-injured, Joe Crede missed almost the entire year, etc. This year, they've added Renteria and us Cabrera. I tend to think the two offenses will be fairly similar when it comes to run production this season. And their starting 5 certainly is not as wonderful as many seem to opine.

QUOTE(WHITESOXRANDY @ Nov 28, 2007 -> 06:32 PM) Offer the Twins Fields, Gio and Sweeney for Santana. I think this offer might beat anything else the Twins are offered. Would you do it ? Would you also offer Santana a 6/$120 contract ? The Twins would not trade Santana to us. Period. He will at the very least go outside of the division.

QUOTE(kwill @ Nov 28, 2007 -> 05:40 PM) Does anyone find it interesting that the no trade clause was such a big deal for mark buehrle but when it came to linebrink they gave him one too. I think its pretty rediculous. Buehrle's contract will cost the White Sox 3x's the money Linebrink's will. That's why.

QUOTE(CWSGuy406 @ Nov 28, 2007 -> 05:42 PM) We've got Buehrle/Vazquez/Contreras/Danks/Floyd -- who does that scare? Their offense also scored 200 more runs than ours did last season and they've added a huge offensive addition in Renteria. You're right, though, I'll heed your advice -- everything's peaches on the Southside. Right, that's who we've got, and we are pretty much being discarded as a fourth or fifth place team, while the Tigers are being discussed as one of the best teams in the AL. My point being that the two teams are not all that far apart. Where do I claim "everything's peaches?" I'm not saying that. I'm just saying everything isn't gloom and doom either. There is room for some optimism amongst all the overwhelming negativity.

QUOTE(witesoxfan @ Nov 28, 2007 -> 05:29 PM) The Greek god Zeus Oh, I was thinking maybe Bill Brasky.

QUOTE(witesoxfan @ Nov 28, 2007 -> 05:12 PM) Because I'm a White Sox fan, and I will rip or root for my team all day long. I can be objective and realize the minor leagues are in shambles and that they could very easily solve that by trading away the expensive core of players for younger pieces and start a rebuilding period. Instead, they are going to try and win within the next 2 years and then see a terrible dropoff in the next 5-7 years after that because they will almost certainly have quite a few immovable contracts down the road. Crede and Contreras are really good players? Did you even watch the White Sox last year? And the thought of Gio Gonzalez going 15-5 next year - thanks for using wins BTW instead of a pitching stat that is actually telling of how well the pitcher actuallys pitches - is absolutely preposterous. And that World Series bulls*** line you put up is absolutely irrelevant to the White Sox and other teams' current states. You make a lot of good points in your posts, wite. But who the f do you think you are that you respond to people so disrespectfully?

QUOTE(witesoxfan @ Nov 28, 2007 -> 04:57 PM) You're right, Baker's 4.26 ERA in 140 innings last year was just god awful....GTFO Liriano is NOT hurt, he's recovering from surgery, so I don't knwo how you figure that. It's also funny how you don't mention Slowey at all, seeing as how he was the AAA starting pitcher of the year; imagine that, the Twins having the AAA pitcher of the year. A 4.72 ERA in his first 70 innings of work is also pretty damn impressive. So, as far as I can gather, their rotation next year, assuming a trade of Johan to the Yankees, is Liriano, Hughes, Baker, Slowey, and then one of a number of other pitchers that they will be able to throw in there and be more than adequate as a 5th starter. The Twins have pitching, you know it, and you are merely in denial. You forgot Bonser. I think alot of this comes from perception and not reality though. The Twins have produced two awfully good pitchers over the past 5 years or so (who knows what will happen with Liriano though?). And then they have produced very little after that. This is the same team that signed Sidney Ponson last year. The Twins key to success has been their bullpen, not their starting rotation. Slowey looks like he could be solid. Bonser seems to moving in the wrong direction. Baker is simply all over the place- very inconsistent. Garza started off quite well, then tailed off. He could be the real deal, but he still has an awful lot to prove. They aren't exactly your one-stop shop for starting pitching...

QUOTE(RockRaines @ Nov 28, 2007 -> 04:55 PM) Who exactly is going to pitch for the twins next year? Their lineup already took a huge hit offensively. I'd take our team over theirs in a heartbeat. Younger is not always better. I guess Liriano/Bonser/Baker/Slowey/a guy they get from dealing Santana?

QUOTE(michelangelosmonkey @ Nov 28, 2007 -> 04:23 PM) I don't get the negativism. "nowhere near as good as the Twins"? Based on last year true...but last year where the Sox had a ton of injuries and career worst seasons...sort of 05 in reverse. One can look at our young players like Danks, Gio, Floyd, Fields and Richar and say "garbage. And look at the Twins young players and say stars. But why be on Sox talk? I'm sure there's TWins talk down the dial. I think the Tigers pitching staff looks awful. And they crashed last year in spite of guys like Ordonez having a career year...most of their team is as old or older than the Sox. Even Cleveland..while Paul Byrd and Bettancourt go 20-9 again next year? Sox have a core of really good players...Cabrera, Konerko, Dye, AJ, Thome, Crede, Vazquez, Buehrle, Contreas, Jenks...and a bunch of good looking young players. If they get lucky and Gio comes up and goes 15-5...or Owens maintains a .340 OBP and steals 80? They could be every bit as good as any team in baseball. If I recall properly we are the only AL Central team to win the WS in the last 3 years. Well Amen. Nice to see a positive outlook around here. I like your point about Detroit. I've been saying they are just as old as us for about a year now. You could see their collapse coming last year because they were so similar to the 06' White Sox team. Their staff? They've got Verlander/Bonderman/Miller/Robertson/Durbin? Who does that scare?

QUOTE(michelangelosmonkey @ Nov 28, 2007 -> 03:57 PM) Who is going to pitch for them? Where is this great Twins pitcher producing machine (outside of good relief pitching)? Bonser's not been very good. Nor Baker. Silva will leave in FA. Liriano's hurt. Trading Garza. Their top prospect Swarzak suspended for drugs?? Baseball Prospectus says the White Sox have three pitching prospects better than any Twins pitching prospect. What it MIGHT mean is the Yankees trading their top two or three prospects for Santana. That would be fascinating. Still...hard to replace the best pitcher in baseball...no matter how good the prospects look. I agree with the Yankees part, although I don't see why they would make this deal prior to doing the Santana deal. I would guess that they approached Tampa about an OF because of Hunter's departure, and were quite shocked at how much the Rays liked Garza. I'm hearing this other OF'er they got in the deal is quite solid as well. They're probably looking at something along the lines of Liriano, Bonser, Slowey, Baker, Hughes/Kennedy/Chamberlain (whichever they get for Santana).

QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Nov 28, 2007 -> 04:04 PM) Hunter has played 33% more big league games in his career than Rowand, and did so on that turf in Minnesota. Rowand's taken a blow or two, but so has Hunter, and I'd say that Hunter's body probably has a lot more wear and tear than Rowand's. I guess I'd agree with that. Another question then is this: Who has the larger propensity in the future to get seriously injured?

QUOTE(kyyle23 @ Nov 28, 2007 -> 03:04 PM) Yeah, but their outfield is loaded with talent. Why the new guy with the most hype? Wouldnt Crawford or even Upton get you the same return if you put them in that deal? I believe they would. And yes, I know that the Twins probably asked for Young. If I were Tampa Bay, he would be the one I would really want to hold onto though [Fair Trades button off] Did you see what BJ Upton did last year? He blew away Young's production. Upton put up an .893 OPS while Young was only at .722. Kind of amazing he had 93 RBI with that low a slugging percentage. His BA with RISP must have been phenomenal.

QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Nov 28, 2007 -> 03:50 PM) But he also had a better season than Hunter last year and is younger. No doubt. Truth is, both had breakout seasons in their FA years. I am always a bit skeptical when that happens. When you're talking about investing this much in terms of dollars and years, I think it's quite appropriate to look at the player's entire career, as opposed to just his last season. He is younger, but does he have the same wear and tear on his body?

QUOTE(WCSox @ Nov 28, 2007 -> 03:44 PM) Why would Rowand accept 12/60 when Hunter just got a $90 million deal? Because he has nowhere near the resume Hunter has? Granted, the free agent market always tends to allow for huge, undeserved contracts every year, so he may just get about what the Sox were offering Hunter, 5/$75 (but not from the Sox).

QUOTE(kyyle23 @ Nov 28, 2007 -> 02:55 PM) Why is TB so ready to give up Delmon Young? I dont get it Because they want to pair another young stud pitcher with Kazmir before he hits FA and with Shields.

QUOTE(michelangelosmonkey @ Nov 28, 2007 -> 02:54 PM) I think it's too bad more teams don't try platooning...the old Earl Weaver strategy. But would the Sox do this? I remember this spring when they had...oh who was that DH/1B, 38 year old...historically killed lefties. And Thome who kills righties. Seemed made to order...and we kept Terrero instead. Besides...as I look it up...Taveras and Owens each had fairly similar awefullness historically against lefties. Eduardo Perez. And your comment about us pitching Danny Glover was pretty humorous as well.....it was Gary Glover...

QUOTE(michelangelosmonkey @ Nov 28, 2007 -> 01:47 PM) Bill James used to preach that it was better to spend a ton on a superstar and surround him with C players than spend an equal amount on a bunch of B players. I always thought it was crazy to spend $15 million on 33 year old Torii Hunter when he was never more than about a B player (.800 OPS guy) and was likely on the down side of his career. Same with Rowand. Same with Andruw Jones. I would bow to KW if he had the guts to trade for Miguel Cabrera...you get a 24 year old who looks like a 1.000 OPS guy and then give him a 10 year $250 million contract. You build around him as the Sox did with Frank in the '90's. And if it costs Sweeney, Gio, Broadway and Carter? So be it. All this talk about Melky and Rowand and Coco Crisp seems like roster filling rather than shooting to win. And frankly...KW has shown more of that gambling nature than the names above suggest. Trading for David Wells, Thome, Garcia, Vazquez...trading top prospects like Chris Young, Jeremy Reed, Gio, McCarthy...that's the swing for the fences Kenny that makes the Sox so much fun to follow. Than what happened to those ARod-led Texas Ranger squads? What James says though probably has never been more accurate than it is now. And when you hear KW talk about a "market correction," he isn't talking about the money being paid to the top-tier players. He's talking about the money being paid for absolute mediocrity. Carlos Silva wanting 4/$40. Kyle Lohse wanting 3/$21. I wonder what the difference is in average salary between pre-arbitration eligible players and players who have fulfilled their major league service time. It has to be absolutely astronomical. Now that being the case, is there actually any doubt that it would be better to play kids making the minimum with a few top-tier players mixed-in as opposed to spending $5-10 million per player? The difference in skill level between pre-arbitration eligible players and average major league players is nowhere near the difference in salary. And this is why pre-arb "prospects" are so amazingly valuable on the trade market currently. But then again....once that inefficiency becomes saturated....it's time to jump on the other side of the pendulum...which is what KW can do right now to get someone like an MCab or Crawford. Have our prospects ever been more valuable than now? I agree with the idea of getting MCab....however, we have to probably realize that if by some chance the Marlins were to accept our offer, it would probably be sooner rather than later. They're going to wait out the Angels and Dodgers as long as possible before accepting our offer. As far as the contract, I was hoping something more along the lines of Manny's contract (10/$200m), but I understand your point.

QUOTE(TheBigHurt @ Nov 28, 2007 -> 01:32 PM) Doesn't Pujols have a 10 yeard deal? Or am I wrong? He has a 7 year contract. Albert Pujols 1b 7 years/$100M (2004-10), plus $16M 2011 club option signed 7-year extension 2/04, avoided arbitration ($10.5M-$7M) 04:$7M, 05:$11M, 06:$14M, 07:$15M, 08:$16M, 09:$16M, 10:$16M, 11:$16M club option ($5M buyout) complete NTC 2004-2006 & limited NTC during remainder of the deal $12M ($3M/year 07-10) deferred at 0% interest (to be paid in 10 installments of $1.2M from 2020 to 2029) bonuses: $50,000 each for Gold Glove & All Star selection $0.2M for winning MVP award $0.1M for 2nd-place finish in MVP vote 1 year/$0.9M (2003) signed 3/03 (record for third-year player) 1 year/$0.6M (2002) 3/02 1 year/$0.2M (2001) contract purchased 3/01 drafted 1999 (13-402) signing bonus of almost $60,000 (turned down initial $10,000 offer & played '99 season in Jayhawk League) agents: Dan Lozano & Jeff Borris, Beverly Hills Sports Council ML service: 6.000

QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Nov 28, 2007 -> 11:46 AM) The last 2 years in Boston, in what a lot of people would consider a hitter's park for most righties, Coco has hit 8 and 6 home runs, respectively. Well, Coco had 378 at bats as a lefty and only 148 as a righty, so that doesn't really tell the story. He certainly did not bat right-handed purposefully to take advantage of the monster or anything. Over the past three years (74 at bats), Coco has a .956 OPS while hitting at the Cell. Another interesting thing (wow, ESPN has a lot of great splits posted nowadays), is that Coco hit .323, had an OBP of .370, and an OPS of .828 as a leadoff hitter last year. Just some things to keep in mind...

QUOTE(EvilJester99 @ Nov 28, 2007 -> 11:42 AM) Only problem is apparently the Red Sawks are asking a ton for Crisp.... Cowley believes the White Sox, meanwhile, will move on to Coco Crisp. They've long had interest in him. I'm not sure how the White Sox and Red Sox would match up though. The Red Sox are asking for quite a bit for Crisp - three prospects. The Rangers balked upon hearing this. The Rangers won't be the only ones to balk upon hearing that...