JUSTgottaBELIEVE

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/12/dodgers-exploring-alternatives-to-teoscar-hernandez.html Robert piece is interesting as I’m surprised about the speculation that Robert could be less pricey to acquire than Suzuki in a trade.

Freeland and Ryan please and yes I know Ryan will miss the 2025 season

If Smith is involved, the Sox aren’t get much else. Like the trade I proposed earlier in this thread.

Sure — 2.4 fWAR for me

I think the Astros likely say no to that deal as well but that’s where I’d start if I’m Getz. Astros are still in win now mode after signing Walker and pulled Valdez off the trade market.

It appears the Astros are still planning to compete. Their outfield is complete trash right now. Give me Smith + Leon + Whitcomb and I’m calling it a day.

lol, I would too but what’s the point of having a guy like Robert on the team when they’re going to lose 100+ games the next two seasons anyways?

…waiting for the replies that Buxton is also a terrible comparison…

Oh, here’s maybe the best comp of all: Byron Buxton. Better than Robert on both a counting and rate basis. Signed a contract for 7/$100M three years ago. Now, I’ll give you inflation makes that $100M number probably closer to $120M in today’s dollars. But even inflation adjusted, that’s ~$17M AAV. Robert is making ~$18M AAV over the next three seasons. Again, there’s surplus value there because he’s locked up for 3 seasons instead of the 7 that Buxton is but geez I don’t think it’s as big as many are portraying it to be.

Well, I’m looking at this list and see that Bryan Reynolds has a higher fWAR than Robert. This is a guy that signed a 8/$107M contract about a year and a half ago when he was 28 years old. Mind you, it bought out two arbitration years so let’s say it was really a 6/$85M extension (~$14M AAV). Seems pretty cheap for a guy ahead of Robert on this list. “Oh but his rate stats suck by comparison.” Ok but a track record of being available to actually play matters in the free agent market.

And giving a player props for rate stats when he misses 35% of a season on average is nice and all but I think teams actually like it when guys are available to play rather than on and off the IL every couple months.

I’m not sure what this proves? Is a 3.8 fWAR differential over 4.5 seasons really that significant? Hell, Bellinger could very well close that after this season if Robert posts another 0.5 fWAR season. I mean, Cedric Mullins has a higher fWAR over the same span lol

So Robert’s trajectory is unaltered by his 2024 injury and performance (or lack thereof)? Seems convenient and foolish imo. And again, fine throw out 2019, Bellinger finished 10th in MVP voting and was a 4.4 fWAR player in 2023 after the injury you keep focusing on. Robert has only had one season better than that…

The argument was Robert would sign a significantly higher contract than 3/$55M if he were a free agent today. I pointed to Bellinger’s contract from last season as what I would expect Robert would receive on the open market today. Bellinger’s age, production, and injury history a year ago when he signed that contract were very similar to where Robert is at today. The biggest difference is Bellinger was coming off a 4.4 fWAR season while Robert is coming off a 0.5 fWAR season.

Why are we not looking at their entire careers? These two guys are supposedly in the prime of their careers in their late 20s. And if we are picking smaller sample sizes why is last year not the most relevant of all?

And sometimes 45 FV prospects turn into highly productive major leaguers. I’d gladly take 3 of them (all position players) for Robert. Then use those cost savings to sign Ha-seong Kim. I think he’ll cost around $55M same as Robert but for 4 years, not 3, so a lower AAV. He’s been about a 3.3 fWAR per 162 game player and has been far more available to play than Robert over his career. Seems like a Getz player too because he walks a lot, plays terrific defense, and is a plus base runner.

Incredibly higher based on what? His career year, which I personally don’t think he will touch again from a production and health standpoint, resulted in a 5 WAR season. 5 WAR seasons don’t lead to MVPs nowadays even if the Sox have the best record in the AL.

There was nothing incorrect about what I stated.

All I’ve been told is that Robert has MVP upside even though he’s never been close to winning one and Bellinger has all star upside even though he’s actually won an MVP and got closer to winning another in 2023 than Robert ever has. But yea, I’m sure somebody would pay Robert a lot more than 3/$80M this winter if he were a free agent lol

It seems the Phillies have moved on from the idea of trading for Robert

Nah, not with his injury history and shitty 2024 season.

Bregman and Adames are awful comps because neither has the extensive injury history that Robert does.

Let me spell this out in plain English since you seem to be having a hard time following. If Robert was a free agent today, do you think he would receive a contract significantly better than 3/$80M? if yes, my question is why? if no, you think that sounds about right then he has ~$25M in surplus value over his remaining three years of control. And that’s just not super valuable. Effectively equal to one 50/55 FV prospect.

Bellinger as a free agent one year ago was coming off a season in which he won a silver slugger and finished 10th in MVP voting. In other words, he was coming off the same type of season as Robert’s career year in 2023. Yet, you’re telling me Robert today has significantly more upside than Bellinger last winter the same winter he signed a 3/$80M deal and was coming off a season comparable to 2023 Robert. 🤷‍♂️

And yet Bellinger literally won an MVP lol