JUSTgottaBELIEVE

But a 55 FV pitching prospect could turn into a solid #2 starter. I’d say that moves the needle.

His contract isn’t exactly cheap as those option years come into play. Has to be factored into his future trade value in these discussions.

I agree. If the Sox can get a 55 FV prospect and a couple 45 FV prospects in return, I’m taking it all day.

For many rebuilding teams like the Sox that are years from contending, acquiring players that are getting older (already in their mid 20s or approaching their late 20s) and/or gaining mlb service time certainly diminishes their appeal/value in a trade. For example, I’m sure the Sox would prefer Coby Mayo over Kjerstad even if Kjerstad proves he can hold his own against MLB pitching in a SSS and Mayo hasn’t.

Kjerstad isn’t even a prospect any more (per mlb pipeline at least he’s no longer listed). Other top 10 guys like McDermott and Johnson are aging out too. Norby will next year as well. These guys are losing value the longer the orioles hold onto them.

It’s definitely down. I acknowledged his trade value is still very high but on a scale of 0-100 and, if it was at 100 last offseason, it is now more like a 95.

Ok, I don’t understand sending Wilson down. What am I missing here? He’s been one of their best relievers.

Correct and Skenes just graduated otherwise he’d be #1 overall and Holliday #3. Of course Holliday could be right back to #1 in the offseason if Wood also graduates but I don’t think his spot at the top is a given (unlike last offseason).

Oh, and Baseball America already dropped Holliday to their #2 prospect on their updated list after he was #1 on their preseason list (mlb pipeline hasn’t updated theirs since the preseason). Similar thing happened to Moncada after his cup of coffee in the MLB back in 2016. Apparently 20 at bats was enough of a look for the Red Sox to include him in a trade a couple months later.

Holliday is less valuable in a trade today than he was 6 months ago without a doubt. He’s still extremely valuable but imo no longer an untouchable like he was in the offseason.

There’s no question Holliday’s stock is down. Reminds me a bit of Moncada following his callup to the Red Sox. Obviously, still very valuable and highly touted but the untouchable mystique (like a Skenes) has worn off imo.

Agreed and since @Rolle Tideonly cares about actual results this season Grayson is more like a #3 than a strong #2 this year.

I don’t understand why everyone loves Miller. A few weeks ago the board consensus was they’d rather have Miller than Painter. I don’t get it. I understand Painter comes with injury risk but the sky is the limit for that kid. I don’t see the same with Miller personally.

Fedde has pitched 41 more innings than Suarez so far this year, which is considerable. Fedde also dominated and was the MVP of the KBO last year for what it’s worth. If we’re talking track records, Grayson has a career ERA higher than Cease’s and only 216 career MLB innings. Seems like a very shaky #2 imo.

Fedde would be your #2, based on results (no, I don’t trust Suarez to maintain an ERA below 3.5 by season end).

Didn’t the Yankees make a significant trade for Juan Soto last offseason? They’re good for at least one big trade a year on average it seems so I don’t really understand your point here?

For reference, Spencer Jones (who the Yankees have tagged as untouchable) has a 37.2% strikeout this season as a 23 year old in AA.

For a contender, he’s a strong #3. Crochet is in the Chris Sale realm when it comes to pure stuff. His only question is health and he’s proven to be a very healthy 25 year old this season.

There’s actually quite a few in the 92 range. Not too many in the 91 range but he’s not the type of pitcher to live and die with his fastball velocity anyways.

The Orioles board may not have thought Cease was an ace but many thought Luzardo was and worth selling the farm for. So I’m not sure they’re the best judge of talent either.

The Fedde proposal is likely one where both fan bases are not completely happy, which means it’s fair. Norby is never going to see consistent playing time for the Os so neither guy contributes to their WS pursuit this season or next.

Norby + Beavers seems like a fair deal for Fedde + Kopech

Holliday + Wagner + Horvath

Kyle Hendricks wasn’t a big K guy either and he’s often the comp for Thorpe. Don’t need big K numbers to be highly successful despite what the advanced metrics folks say. My one concern with Thorpe has been his walks but I think that’s simply a function of him nibbling too much after he’s ahead in the count. Once he gets more comfortable and learns to trust his stuff at the big league level that should improve.

You do realize he’s only 3 years into a 14 year contract and is injury prone right? Let’s see how it plays out. I wasn’t concerned about the front half of that contract but the second half yikes