JUSTgottaBELIEVE

Just missing NWI it appears

Southeast area is getting the worst of it. I’m in Countryside and it’s raining hard right now.

Looks like rain until 6:00. That would be a ~3.5 hour delay. Seems a bit unreasonable but we’ll see.

So if they end up calling this game, that’s three complete games and two shutouts on the season for Giolito, correct?

So this is the argument now? I wouldn’t trade Moncada for Bryant or Contreras. Would you?

And James McCann has a higher bWAR than all of em ?

Yoan Moncada - .878 OPS Javier Baez - .873 OPS

Meh. He’s got an ERA of 4 in a Cubs uniform over 62 starts. That’s against NL teams largely with pitchers hitting 3 times a game. He’s likely a 4.25-4.50 ERA guy in the AL next season. I wouldn’t give up more than a couple Alex Call’s for one season of that at a cost of $10.5M. Is he better than Nova? Sure but that doesn’t mean I’m giving up much of anything in terms of prospect value for him.

I’m not talking about right now, I’m talking this offseason. Cubs can’t afford to trade any starting pitcher right now with their starters dropping like flies of late. They need live bodies for the rotation. However, I’m sure they would consider trading him this winter if they plan to pursue a free agent arm or two. Also, there’s no way I’d give up any of the guys you mentioned above for 1 year of Q. Rather wait another 12 months when he’s available for only $$$.

That’s why I said two Alex Call’s. Q is trending in the wrong direction and isn’t nearly the same pitcher he was in a Sox uniform. Nova’s performance in the NL between 2016-2018, the three seasons prior to the Sox trade, actually make for a good comp to Q’s results over the past two years and remaining contract status after this season.

Yea, probably a couple Alex Call’s is all it would take. Quintana has been pretty ordinary since the trade and entering his age 31 season, with one year, $10.5M left on his contract should be really cheap via trade in a few months.

His fielding percentage is bonkers. If he has the type of range reported/expected, that’s the best defensive 2b in baseball.

We’re half way thru the season and McCann has the highest WAR of any catcher in baseball. Who predicted that?! What a steal of a signing by Hahn. The second best FA signing of his tenure after Jose Abreu. It’s great that he’s still arb eligible next season too.

All four guys will be back next year most likely. Maybe they trade Colome before next season but I doubt it. My numbers were looking at 2020 payroll. Who knows where they will stand with payroll after that but if they’re not here then they need to be replaced, especially considering 3/4 have been very productive players since they’ve been in a Sox uniform.

I laid it out in a previous post. Do you think Jerry is willing to spend $140-150M next year?

How so? You don’t move Madrigal off 2b. Moncada has been very good at 3b and even with the errors I take TA over Manny defensively at SS. Again, $30 a year better spent on pitching upgrades. What’s your solution to address the pitching staff?

Madrigal is 2018 Kinsler already with no significant increase in power. Upper 600s OPS with great defense and good baserunning. That’s a 2 WAR player as is. With a slight uptick in power he’s a 3-4 WAR guy. All while making league min for several years. After Cease, who has that type of upside as a starting pitcher in the coming years that’s currently in the Sox minor league system? It’s obvious the money needs to be spent on pitching. Not sure how you can’t see how that’s a more productive use of their financial resources over the next several years?

And he could easily be below 800 by the end of the season too. He’s been hot lately, yes, but let’s see if it keeps up. yes, I’d like for them to sign Cole but signing two solid starters like Bumgarner and Wheeler could be just as beneficial over the next few years. Bottom line, the offense looks good with the chance to be great with minimal additions. The starting pitching staff looks like a black hole at the moment.

How much “power” did Dustin Pedroia have at age 22? How many prospects have Madrigal’s hit tool, like not just currently but in the last decade?

Eloy - $2.3M, TA - $4M, Herrera - $8.5M, Abreu - $10M (?), Colome - $10M (?), McCann - $6M (?), Garcia - $4M (?), 18 players on league min or close to it - $11M That’s $56M with 5 spots reserved for vets. Add in two frontline starting pitchers is another $40M, two high leverage relievers is another $20M, and one position player vet is another $5M. Altogether that’s $121M. Seems like a reasonable payroll. Not sure jerry would be willing to push that to $150M with either Machado or Harper also included. Seems unlikely.

Madrigal is the starting 2b next year playing on league min salary. The infield is covered for the foreseeable future. Use the $$$ for pitching. Need at least two starters and another reliever or two.

They spent a whopping $26M between their three “big” free agent signings last winter - Jay, Herrera, McCann. That group has produced 2.4 bWAR this year (same as Machado) at a cost of $15M this year. BUT it allows the organization to allocate their resources where help is really needed in the coming years (pitching, pitching, pitching) since these are not long term commitments.

I’ve been consistent on Machado from day one. I’ve said his performance will drop off significantly this year from last year (which it has) and that a few years from now his contract will be an albatross (TBD). Why spend $300M on a position where the Sox actually have some solid depth while they have just one viable starting pitcher? You can have a great offense but you aren’t going anywhere in October without pitching. That’s where the resources need to be spent and I’d much prefer Cole+Wheeler or similar combination over one Manny Machado.

Definitely don’t think that’s worth $30M. Besides, the Sox weren’t competing this year. Their contention window is 2021-2025/2026. How will Manny produce during those years? That’s what matters. Padres are in the same boat. They’re not going anywhere this year and probably not next year either. Sox shouldn’t be investing big long term dollars in position players. They need pitching and lots of it. That’s primarily where the money should be spent the next two offseason.

Machado has been red hot of late and McCann is still 0.4 WAR higher than the $30M man so far this year. Harper at $25M has been even worse.