JUSTgottaBELIEVE

I think the Indians will be trending downwards in a big way by 2021 but I’m not sure the Sox will be a clear favorite over the Twins even if the Sox top prospects perform well.

It is what it is. Look around the division. No owner in the AL Central is breaking the bank in terms of payroll. If the team bumps the payroll to $125-130M by 2021, they should be one of, if not the division favorite. If they aren’t, something clearly went wrong with the rebuild along the way. As long as the young core continues to develop, I remain optimistic that this team will be very competitive starting in 2021, two years from now.

Of course. 23.7% is a HUGE improvement from 33.4% last season.

23.7 K% thru 97 plate appearances this season

I have no doubt Jerry is comfortable carrying a $125M-130M payroll and I have little doubt they will hit that number within the next few years. But I also think Jerry imposes a relatively hard cap so if they are locking down someone like Machado at $30M AAV it very well may mean they are unable to afford a Moncada or Robert extension in the future if they are already pushing up against Jerry’s self-imposed cap.

$200M to lock him up thru 2029 (age 34). Sure, I’d do it.

Thats not how this works. Just because it was “saved” today doesn’t mean it will be available in the future.

Moncada is under team control through the 2023 season. Not sure where you are coming up with 1-2 years because he is still 4.5 years away from cashing in on a $250M contract if he decides to hit free agency as soon as possible.

All of the guys you mentioned above will not be on this team when the organization is attempting to keep the core together. Heck, most will be gone after this season or next season at the latest. $45M now when team payroll is already sub $100M is far different than $30M AAV on Machado in years 2021 thru 2028 when the young core starts to hit their expensive years through arbitration or contract extensions. The cost of Machado’s contract is not an issue this year or next year but will be in future years if they intend to lock down guys like Moncada that will likely be even better than Machado during those years. I don’t know why people have such a hard time understanding that concept.

Oh yea, they are out there but it seems it has become increasingly difficult to land guys like Cain and JDM and more common to land the duds via free agency.

He wouldn’t be the first business owner to fire an employee that he doesn’t get along with regardless of how talented they are.

It’s a reflection of ownership. I think of the Mets in the same vein. Due to similar ownership restrictions, they are often shopping from the mid tier level of free agents/veterans. They have been one of the most aggressive teams in baseball in adding veterans over the past couple winters. In fact, 5 of their 8 highest paid players this season were added to the organization within the past 18 months (the other three being Cespedes, deGrom, Lagares; two of which are currently on the IL). Here’s how they are performing so far this season: Robinson Cano ($19M) 0.1 fWAR Wilson Ramos ($7.25M) -0.1 fWAR Todd Frazier ($9M) 0.1 fWAR Jason Vargas ($8M) -0.2 fWAR Jed Lowrie ($8.5M) 0.0 fWAR That’s $51.25M across 5 mid-tier vets that have combined for a total of -0.1 fWAR so far this season. Even when you are willling to spend money for the “premier” free agents, you can end up with a Heyward or a Darvish. Point is, it’s difficult to obtain value from the free agent/veteran market, which is why I’m all for utilizing the money to lock up the young core for an extended period. We’re already there with TA and Eloy. Now I’d like to see it done with Moncada. Get it done Rick.

Many GMs do. Heck, the Cubs did it on one player (Darvish).

Rodon, McCann, Herrera, and Colome have been fine.

Really? Because as recently as late last season and this spring some people were labeling Moncada and TA busts. Who the F cares about these expiring vet contracts anyway? You’re the one making a big deal about it. They’re making average money as veteran players on the 6th lowest team payroll in MLB. The only ones that had/have the ability to bring back good prospects are the two relievers. And no, the money spent on these guys did not result in missing on machado or Harper. Jerry was never going to authorize a $300M contract regardless of Alonso, Nova, etc being under contract this year.

Your opinion and I have mine. I’ve been consistent on my feelings regarding Manny for over a year. My feelings about him didn’t form just because he signed elsewhere. I was arguing with Sox fans last December about why I felt he would be a bad signing when they emerged as a top contender to land him.

You can’t just look at one piece of the roster and not the rest. If those veterans were playing well but the young guys like TA and Moncada weren’t, I’d bet people would be blasting Hahn.

Anyways, we won’t have an answer to the Machado/Harper debate for several years still but it will be interesting to see how it plays out.

Bryce Harper has been a beast of a hitter dropping bombs since he was 16. Unless he was juicing at 15/16 (which I guess is possible?), he’s been an outstanding hitter his entire life. Take a look at their minor league power numbers and first MLB season home run totals and let me know which set of numbers look suspicious after that.

That’s actually one of the main reasons I think he’s going to fall off. I don’t believe he was clean in Baltimore (along with Davis, Castillo, and several others). Now he got his money so need to risk suspension by getting back on it. I also don’t think his profile, which relies heavily on his defense, will age well. Career 120 wRC+ is good but it’s not $300M ($30M AAV) good if the defense slips at all.

I did up until the Phillies didn’t sign Machado (or stopped pursuing him). Then the writing was on the wall. And no, I believe Harper will age much much better than Machado (esp as an AL player) and be far more productive in the 2021-2026 seasons. Plus, he’s cheaper AAV and far more marketable than Machado. I absolutely wanted the Sox to sign Harper, which makes me despise their pursuit of Machado even more. I’ve said all along that missing on Machado was a blessing in disguise but missing on Harper was a blown opportunity.

The Sox have the 6th lowest payroll in baseball. Using wins as a measure of team performance, I expect them to perform in line with that mark (6th fewest wins in MLB). I’m generally optimistic but I had them at 70-92 this year. If the Sox are still playing sub .500 ball in 2021, I’ll be right in line with you raising the pitchforks to fire Hahn. Until then, I reserve judgement and remain optimistic by the development that the young core has already taken so far this year.

Yes, I am confident he will turn into one of the worst contracts in MLB in a few years. Many here are confident he is a first ballot HOF. What makes my prediction outlandish but the others not?

So people can label him a future first ballot HOF but I can’t predict he’s going to underwhelm his $300M expectations? Got it.

The Sox have the 6th lowest payroll in MLB. They are the exact opposite of serious spenders right now.