JUSTgottaBELIEVE

Does Lambert ever throw a ball? Serious question because I feel like he’s only thrown strikes this spring.

Even with a repeat of his 2018 season this year, I’d still be shocked if he beats $110M guaranteed. How many AL teams, besides the white sox, are willing to pay that kind of money that don’t already have the DH slot covered?

You still haven’t explained why his list of suitors and market will greatly improve from what he experienced last winter. I would be shocked if he exceeds $110 guaranteed.

I believe 4/85 with a fifth option in the range of $20M with a $5 buyout is the type of contract JD will be looking at. I don’t see him topping his 5/110 contract signed with the Red Sox since he will be two years older and likely have a QO attached (whereas he didn’t last time around). Unless he experiences significant regression this year, I’d be all over 4/85 with a fifth year option. Even if he averages 135 wRC+ over those 4 years, which is a substantial drop in production from his last two years, he’d still compile ~10 fWAR over that period with ~500 PA/yr.

What makes you think he will beat his 5/110 contract he signed with the Red Sox when he was 30 yo rather than 32 yo?

Agreed!

I’m warming on the idea of Castellanos. More versatile and younger than JD. Having said that, I’d still prefer JD.

If we got 150, 136, 130, and 115 from JD on a 4/$85M type contract, I’d be thrilled.

No question but like you said even if he regresses some and becomes a 135 wRC+ hitter he’s still a top 20 hitter in MLB. When’s the last time the Sox had two of the top 20 best hitters in baseball (assuming Eloy becomes that in the near future)? edit: guess they were close in 2017 due to Avi’s fluke season but I imagine the last time they came anywhere close (outside of 2017) was over a decade ago.

Sox fans are so scarred that they are viewing a stud like JD in the same vein as LaRoche and Dunn. Two completely different animals. JD is not a tier 3/4 FA signing like many of the guys they’ve signed in year’s past. He was the #3 hitter in baseball by wRC+ last season.

This is likely his last chance to cash in on a big payday. Considering EE signed a 3/60 deal with the Indians two years ago at age 34, I’d be shocked if JD doesn’t beat that easily at age 32 unless he has a bad season in 2019. JD is a much better hitter than EE was when he entered free agency, also as a DH only type.

I’d be fine with Collins rotating between catcher, 1b, and DH (sitting against lefty starters) but I really hope the Sox acquire a plus defender at catcher. I don’t think either of those two guys are that.

You don’t think JD will be able to beat $62.5M on the open market next winter? I think he easily beats that if he has another big season in 2019.

That’d be great. Field an entire everyday lineup of 2-3 WAR players, and if they can pull together a decent starting staff, they should be an annual division contender or favorite in the Central. Should be able to fill about 6 spots internally and then fill the other 3 via FA or trade.

That’s actually not adjusting expectations down all that much. Castellanos will be one of the top free agents in 8 months. A really good fit at DH for a Sox lineup in need of middle of the order bats and only 4 months older than Machado. Shouldn’t cost a ton either due to his defensive limitations and probably 2-3 WAR production out of the DH slot. That’ll work. Perhaps the consolation prize to JDM but 4 years younger.

Pick one. Here’s the list: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/08/2019-20-mlb-free-agents.html Mine is JD Martinez. Yes, he’s a full time DH and, yes, he will be 32 years old. But he’s also one of the best hitters in the game right now and I’d love seeing what a lineup with Madrigal, Moncada, Martinez (killer Ms), and Eloy could do next year. That’d be fun.

They were also 2 WAR players at less than 25 yo last season. Based on last year’s performance, they are already average starters. Slight improvement and these are 3-4 WAR players, top 10 players at their position.

I’ve said it before but it bears repeating. The infield (excluding the catcher’s position) is the least of my concerns for this team moving forward. It was basically league average last year and TA and Moncada should only improve from here. One of the reasons why I wasn’t a supporter of a Machado signing. Better to use those financial resources in areas of greater need (catcher and starting pitching are two glaring areas of need).

But someone said the other day starting pitching should be this organizations strength which is why they should have spent their financial resources on manny and Harper. Lol, the starting staff is brutal and will be awful for the foreseeable future. Anyone thinking the Sox won’t need to dip into free agency or trades to fill at least 2 spots in the starting rotation is kidding themselves. At least the infield is league average as currently constructed. The outfield is terrible but that’s the one true strength of the current minor league system so that should improve in time.

How great it would be if Rondon had a better career than Tatis Jr.

Again, if the Yankees were truly sold on Harper and Manny they would have made room for them. You’re telling me the Yankees don’t have a spot for those guys because they’re blocked by Brett Gardner and Didi (hurt to start the season and then FA in 8 months)? LOL. Same with the Dodgers, etc.

He’s certainly a better fit for the Phillies than the Sox given the current state of each rebuild (as was Machado). Phillies are just now emerging from a 6 year rebuild and trending in the right direction. They also have a much better idea of where their weaknesses lie with far fewer holes to fill. Again, just my opinion, but the Sox aren’t there yet which is why I’ve said all along that the pursuit of these guys feels premature (anywhere from 1-3 years premature).

You’re right. I was just rattling off a handful of obvious names but I’m sure there are a few others I left out.

I guess I find it difficult to pay “next tier” guys like Harper and Machado $300M+ contracts. Those types of contracts could destroy a mid market team like the Sox if they don’t live up to their contract. Apparently, many other teams felt the same way. Also, I’m only advocating for signing JDM, Goldy, etc. next winter if the young core takes a huge step forward this season. If they don’t and the Sox put up another 100 loss season, then you wait until the team is closer to competing to make a big splash. I’m not saying they need to be a 85 win team before making a big move but I’d at least like to see them as a 75+ win team that’s headed in the right direction. We still don’t know what we have here with a lot of these young guys. And quite frankly, if the young guys don’t develop what’s the point in having a $30-35M player on a 85+ loss team? What if the Sox develop a bunch of solid OFs from their minor league system but can’t seem to develop a catcher or starting rotation? Now we’ve tied up a huge sum of money for a player that’s a marginal upgrade from pre arb players and tied our hands on filling more pressing needs since significant resources have already been expended. Stars and scrubs roster just like pre rebuild.

Let’s take a closer look at this. Why were many big spenders sitting on the sidelines for these two guys this winter? Luxury tax isn’t going away in the future unless something happens with the new CBA. Or could it be perhaps that the big spenders view these two players as somewhat flawed and not worthy of $300M+ contracts. Would the big spenders be sitting on the sidelines if Lindor and Trout were available instead of Machado and Harper? I doubt it. That tells me something about how even the big spenders are valuing Machado and Harper.