JUSTgottaBELIEVE

My point is this winter in which Harper and Manny being available as sub 30 yo megastars isn’t as rare as everyone is making it out to be. But it’s a once in a lifetime opportunity! No, actually it’s not. But all the big spenders are sitting on the sidelines! Ok but these guys are still getting their $300M+ contracts so who GAF.

Bogaerts is so versatile and could easily slide over to 3b even if TA emerges this year and Moncada and/or Madrigal do not. He’d be a great fit and the fact that he’s even younger than Machado is just icing on the cake. He should definitely be a target for the Sox in another 8 months.

Position player superstars scheduled to hit free agency over the next 3 years (unless they sign extensions of course but we already know a few plan to test the market for sure): Trout, Betts, Lindor, Correa, Seager, Bryant, Baez, Stanton (if he opts out).

Every player ages differently. And besides, even with a stellar .393 OBP and .889 OPS last year, he managed just 1.3 bWAR and 3.5 fWAR. That’s pretty weak. Sure that’s worth $330M+?

Here’s the other thing I don’t understand. Why is it a guarantee that Harper will only improve from here because of his age? 3 of his 4 best seasons occurred pre-2016. He was a better player (per fangraphs) when he was 19/20 years old than he was when he was 25 years old. Why is it a sure thing that he’ll be better at ages 26-29 than he was at ages 23-25?

Bolded is highly debatable. Biggest name, sure, but better player? Hasn’t been in the past 3 years and not sure he is over the next 3 years either.

Here’s the list (excluding Machado and Arenado since they just signed) Stanton, Cabrera, Cano, Pujols, Votto, Price, Scherzer, Greinke, Heyward, Verlander, Hernandez, Strasburg, Altuve, Davis, Kemp. 3 rings combined after signing their massive contracts. I wouldn’t call the Price and Heyward signings good investments unless they really crank it up on the second half of their contracts and then you have Verlander (great investment but didn’t win a ring until after he was traded by the team that signed him). Based on that list, sure seems like Manny and Harper signings are no brainers for a team like the Sox. But I guess I’m the crazy one.

How exactly are the top 10 free agents next winter retreads? You’re grouping players like Rendon, JDM, Goldy in with the Melkys and Laroches of the world. That’s ridiculous.

Just curious, how many WS rings do the current top 15 MLB players have after signing their huge contracts?

Where did I say that? I said a “solid” 32 yo geezer like Turner has worked out ok for the Dodgers but you want to rule out all FAs 30+.

I’d love Bogaerts but view JDM and Goldschmidt as far more realistic targets. A 2020 lineup with Moncada, Eloy, JDM, and Goldschmidt would be fun to watch. But of course they will be 32 yo by then so they might suddenly forget how to hit.

You know, the 32 year old geezer at the time of his signing back in 2017 and has proceeded to put up 5.4 and 4.2 fWAR seasons since then. But I guess everyone over 30 sucks so I can’t figure out how he’s already exceeded the value of his free agent 4 year contract in just two seasons... https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.mlb.com/212210494-justin-turner-signs-4-year-deal-with-dodgers.amp.html

If this is your argument for “loaded” at starting pitcher then they are “loaded” with position players between all their OF prospects, Moncada, TA, Madrigal, Collins, etc. A guy like Collins has far better odds of making an impact at the big league level than Medieros, Adams, and anyone currently after those guys combined. Lopez is the closest thing to a sure bet in the 2022 starting rotation and that’s a scary thought.

Yep, as are the guys available next winter. Actually Cole, Sale, and Bumgarner (if healthy) are better than Lester was when he signed with the Cubs. Similarly, Rendon, JDM, Bogaerts, and Goldschmidt aren’t too shabby either. Superstars? Nah, but damn good players.

Correct. There are so many holes on this roster right now and I’d say starting pitching is shaping up to be a much bigger need than position players with the way the pitching prospects are getting injured and/or underperforming. Also, very likely the Sox draft a position player at #3 than a pitcher so there’s that as well.

JDM, Lester, Turner, Cain, et . were once solid free agents too. Record setting contracts are often terrible investments.

How do you figure the Sox will have the starting pitching? Gio, Kopech, and Cease are all question marks at this point and Rodon is a free agent after the 2021 season.

Many on the list do make sense for the Sox, how do you not see that?

Plenty of solid FA options available next winter after they pass on Harper: https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/white-sox/depth-look-what-white-sox-could-do-free-agency-next-offseason-2019-2020-mlb-free-agents-cole-sale-verlander-bumgarner-martinez-bogaerts-rendon

5.6 in 2015. 4.0 in the three seasons combined since.

They will definitely bring Betts back. No way they let him go. I don’t know about any of the others. They have a lot of difficult decisions ahead.

True. All while currently running the highest team payroll in MLB as is.

Which season is the outlier so far in his career? And 4 years ago is a long time. Jason Heyward was pretty awesome back in 2015 too.

JDM, Bogaerts, Sale, Betts, Porcello, Bradley all free agents the next two winters. I’m sure there’s others but those are the names that come to mind. They won’t be able to bring everyone back, that’s for sure.

Complementary pieces many of which have had a higher WAR than megastar Harper over the last 3 seasons. Perhaps Harper is the complementary piece (but paid like a megastar).