JUSTgottaBELIEVE

Also the 2018 list from fangraphs was based on qualified starters only. If you sort by all starting pitchers regardless of innings pitched the #30 starters were Hendricks (TOR and #1 starter for the mighty 95 win Cubs) and Happ. Both accumulated a fWAR of 3.2 last season. Again, if Lopez is that starting this year and for the next five years, the Eaton trade is absolutely a win based on that production alone.

You’re talking about two of the best starting rotations in baseball. Who were the top starters last year for the Brewers, Cubs, Rockies, Dodgers, A’s (actual good teams)?

Great point regarding his injury history Caulfield. There was always elevated injury risk with Eaton due to his style of play. Give the Sox credit for selling high on him.

Ah you’re right. I did. 2.75 not nearly as impressive. Just goes to show how difficult it is to find reliable starters in today’s game though. Point is, he’s pre arb and to be a top 30 starter in baseball is extremely valuable. Plus, with the direction they were headed in terms of the rebuild, Eaton did not fit their competitor window whereas Lopez still may.

So yea, top 30 is impressive and extremely valuable for a guy still in his pre arb years.

You’re looking at 2018 only. #30 qualified starter over the last 3 years (Cole Hamels) accumulated 11.0 fWAR (~3.7 per season). I’d take that for the next 5 years with ridiculous flexibility and affordability associated with pre arb and arb players than Eaton and his contract entering his age 28 season and basically a 3.7 fWAR player if not for the outlier 2016 season.

Oh yea but I’m trying to be realistic for the naysayers. Guys you mentioned are tier 1, although I think some may be realistic targets for WS since it’s a deep FA class.

I define TOR as a top 30 starter in MLB. I don’t consider a #1 on a 100 loss team a TOR necessarily. A top 30 starter in MLB with another 5 years of cheap control would be more valuable than Eaton’s worth at the time of trade (not even considering the injury).

If Lopez develops into a TOR starter this year and beyond, it’s a win regardless of what Gio and Dunning become.

Said it in another thread but guys like JDM, Goldschmidt, Puig, Grandal, Hicks are all reasonable targets next winter. Maybe they’re not a 26 year old “super star” but they’re all damn good players that are certainly a step above any FA the Sox have signed in the past two decades.

Yep, exactly. When the likes of Morales and Reddick are your biggest FA acquisitions (not even what I would consider second tier guys), it just goes to show you can win a title without the mega star FA signings of Manny and Harper.

Reason for optimism...how many premium FA signings did the Royals and Astros make during their successful rebuilds that ultimately resulted in a WS title? It can still be done even if the FA signings are “second tier” talent.

I guess I see FA pitcher signings as a far bigger risk than FA position players. And after you get through the top few starting pitchers, the remaining list just isn’t very exciting.

Personally, I’d look to the trade market for controllable starting pitching. Should have enough assets between the current minor league system and June draft to put together a really nice package for a solid starter or two.

Sox could potentially field a 2020 lineup of the following and still carry a team payroll of just ~$100M: Madrigal (2b) Moncada (3b) JDM (DH) Goldschmidt (1b) Jimenez (LF) Puig (RF) Collins (C) Anderson (SS) Robert (CF) That’s a playoff lineup if the young guys are even league average collectively. Of course the starting rotation is still a big question mark with wildcards like Kopech and Cease expected to contribute in a big way but it’s not that difficult to envision a playoff roster in 2020 if the prospects are close to as good as advertised and with the addition of second tier/realistic free agent targets like JDM, Goldy, and Puig.

Define “massive.” I don’t think JDM breaks $100M guaranteed on his next contract. I could see 4/95 guaranteed with a team option for a fifth year and $5M buyout or something along those lines. Far cry from $300M, which I would consider massive. Despite being one dimensional, JDM’s fWAR last year nearly equaled Machado’s. Will he maintain it? Probably not at that level but I can see easily him being a 4 WAR DH into his mid 30s and a better hitter than Manny over that same period.

I definitely prefer JDM, and I think he’ll be productive into his mid 30s. As long as the one dimension is “top 5 hitter in MLB” sign me up!

I disagree. Guys like JDM and Goldy are certainly viable options for an owner like Jerry given their future payroll obligations. I can’t imagine they run a sub $100M team payroll every year for the next decade.

Yep. This is where I’m at. If Hahn is truly authorized to increase payroll by $30-50M (or more) a year moving forward, he shouldn’t have to settle for scrap heap types like years past but productive second tier all star players like Bogaerts, Rendon, Grandal, Goldy, JDM, etc. Those guys won’t require $200M+, $30M AAV contracts. JDM would be my preference. He’ll be 32 when he opts our after this season and perhaps the best hitter in baseball right now. Limited to DH so his market will be naturally depressed to AL only teams and Boston will have other priority FA’s to lock down long term like last year’s MVP. Pairing him with Eloy for 2020-2024 seasons would be a lot of fun.

I’m one of the few that wanted no part of Machado. I’m upset they are apparently out on Harper but at this point you stick to the rebuild. Another year of tanking in 2019 and top 5 draft pick in 2020 combined with this year’s #3 pick, a top 5 minor league system already, and young controllable talent already at the big league level and there is still hope. See how the young guys perform in 2019 and if they take a big step forward stay aggressive in FA next winter for the “second tier” free agent types like Rendon, Goldy, etc. in hopes of competing in 2020. If the young talent does not take a step forward in 2019, no sense in signing a bunch of free agents next winter. At that point, trade Rodon in either late July 2019 or next winter if he is healthy and productive. Trade short term contracts like Abreu, Alonso, Jay, Castillo, Colome, Herrera in late July to further reinforce the minor league system. Target 2021 as the start of the organization’s competitive window with young talent at the big league and all throughout the minor league levels. Supplement with free agency in winter of 2020/2021. This team isn’t ready to compete and may not be ready for another two years. Not a popular opinion but I believe missing on Machado is a blessing in disguise. Much like the awful Shields trade that started this entire process. Signing Machado would have given the front office false hope that they could compete in 2019 I’m afraid. Sorry, but not ready to start unloading prospects to “go for it” in 2019 and likely not 2020 either.

I’ll be surprised if they lose 100 games again. 90? Sure, but not 100 unless they get hit with significant injuries.

Apparently they didn’t with Machado either.

I never wanted Machado on the Sox, especially on these terms. I think the Padres will soon regret this deal. The only thing that upset me about yesterday’s events, is that he didn’t sign with the Phillies and it appears the Sox are out on Harper, the player I truly wanted.

Please no more Adam Engel as a starter. As a 4th/5th OF, maybe.

Also, since when is an OBP of 340 or higher the threshold for an "acceptable" OBP? The best offense in baseball last year had a team OBP of 339, which means they had several starters with an OBP of less than 340. That team also won the World Series.