JUSTgottaBELIEVE

Hurting the rest of the roster would have been overpaying Manny Machado for the next 10 years.

It’s definitely realistic, and I wouldn’t call a 4 fWAR producer at $21M AAV an overpay. Weren’t you the one that said 1 fWAR = $9M on the open market?

They’ve done it before. http://www.espn.com/chicago/mlb/news/story?id=5875860

You think JDM to the Sox is unrealistic because they won’t be willing to spend ~$25M more on a player than what they’ve spent previously?

The list is getting smaller but the Sale and Bogaerts extensions indicates to me that the Red Sox are likely to let JDM walk after he opts out following this season. They still need to extend Betts as well. Sox better be ultra aggressive in bringing JDM into the fold.

Best players available? How do you figure? I already explained my rationale for why the Sox are in a great position to land a player like JDM. You think the suitors for Harper and Machado were limited last winter? JDM’s market will be even smaller but I still think he gets $85M or so to make it worth opting out. Certainly within the Sox budgetary comfort zone.

Keith Law was right!

About what? Take a look at my 2019-2020 offseason priorities thread. I identified JDM as my top target for the Sox. Castellanos as my #2. Pretty sure both will be available.

I wanted Harper. I never had interest in Machado at $30M a year over 10 years. I wouldn’t be surprised if Moncada has a higher fWAR at 3b this year than Machado. The Sox RF situation on the other hand is a mess for the foreseeable future. Never understood why Sox fans saw Machado as a better fit than Harper given that the infield is already league average while the OF is a complete mess. Anyways, the Sox should ensure Alonso’s doesn’t reach the PA threshold for the option to kick in and make signing JDM their top priority next offseason. I imagine the Sox will also extend Abreu. A 2020 lineup of Moncada, Madrigal, JDM, Abreu, and Eloy would be a force.

This simply reaffirms my belief that JDM will be available on the open market in another 7 months, who happens to be my #1 target for the Sox next offseason.

An extremely unpopular opinion on this forum this offseason but I’ll be curious to see how this plays out over the next couple years. I think Manny’s numbers will be way down this season from last season now that he got his $$$. I still believe the Sox dodged a bullet by missing on him.

You’ve been Gio’s biggest supporter even while the rest of the board was piling on. I have no idea what that guy is talking about.

Gio feeling it. Big props to Jack Parkman for standing by Gio through the tough times while the rest of the board already gave up on Gio 9 months ago.

Agreed and they’ll be adding another interesting name or two to this group in ~two months. Likely a top 100 MLB prospect.

He’s 23 and just entering his second full season in MLB. Give him some time.

So it appears Moncada’s September 2018 has rolled into the 2019 season rather nicely. No strikeouts through his first 9 plate appearances is also very encouraging. Kid is super talented, just needed a tweak in his mental approach at the plate.

Machado 0-3 with 2 strikeouts. SD fans hate him yet? It’s one game..

Not if you’re a team like the Yankees looking to add him on a short term high AAV contract. Again, it’s not the only factor but to completely dismiss it in the evaluation process is what should get you fired not the other way around.

I’m not sure about that. Obviously the luxury tax threshold was a far bigger deal for most teams but some teams that might have otherwise floated a very high AAV short term deal were reluctant to do so because of the draft pick. I think the draft pick is always a factor even if it is a lesser impact on the megacontracts compared to the Grandals of the world.

But again, how many predicted going into the offseason that Harper would accept a deal with an AAV of $5M less than Machado? I’m not saying the draft pick was the only reason but I don’t think anyone here can definitively say it was a non-factor in his market.

Maybe but it seemed to impact Harper’s market. How many thought he’d get significantly less AAV than Machado heading into the offseason?

Have we heard that anywhere? I’ve only seen glowing reports from scouts and high prospect rankings despite his relative lack of production last year. That tells me the best is yet to come. Seems health is the only obstacle at this point.

Assuming the Sox traded for Machado last winter and kept him all season and then extended a QO, would it have impacted his market in any way for a team like the Padres that would have had to give up a high draft pick to sign him? It’s certainly impacted the market for lesser free agents but not sure what, if any, impact it would have had on Machado. That’s the only indirect discount I could see associated with the Sox trading for him a year ago. Perhaps the Padres don’t hit the $300M number with a draft pick attached?

? the future is bright with or without Manny...

If a small market team like the Indians was willing to spend $60M on a lesser and older DH only type two years ago, I have to imagine JDM will beat that again assuming health and production this season.