JUSTgottaBELIEVE

Browns are more relevant than most teams right now. They are one of the most talked about franchises in the NFL over the last year with the number of splashy moves they’ve made.

It’s always darkest before dawn ?

Many thought the 2018 season was rock bottom for this rebuild, then the 2018-2019 offseason happened. I think we’ve hit rock bottom and things start looking up from here. What do you think? Do you agree or do you think worse times are still ahead?

Let’s be real. The only way to build true sustainability is a change in ownership (to maintain a top 7-10 team payroll). Since that’s not happening any time soon, I will surely take the 2005 outcome as the end product of this rebuild.

At this point, I’d take 2005 again as the outcome of this rebuild. That’s probably a best case scenario because it’s damn hard to win a title in MLB. And the 2005 team didn’t consist of average players. It had a roster full of solid to above average players. Not many holes. Add 3 “stars” to this current team and it’s still a disaster. Even teams loaded with multiple stars (Dodgers, Nationals, Indians, etc) have yet to win a title.

The Sox had three great players (5+ fWAR players) and one really good player (near 4 fWAR player) in 2014 but still lost 89 games. How many 5+ fWAR players did the ‘05 team have?

White Sox had three 5+ WAR players in 2014 and were nowhere near contention. There’s more than one way to build a contender. The complimentary pieces are just as important as the cornerstones, otherwise you end up with a repeat of 2014.

That ship has sailed. This is still a 90 loss team even with Machado and likely still a 80+ loss team in 2020 even with him as well. Signing him alone would have made no difference in their playoff hopes for either this year or next unless it was supplemented with a number of other significant additions.

I agree but to say we signed a bunch of nobody’s for $45M isn’t accurate. They aren’t stars but they are still quality big league players. I wouldn’t be opposed to those types of acquisitions when this team is near contention.

Don’t need to spend $100M+ to get a really good player in this market.

I’ll be shocked if the Sox don’t break the organization’s record for guaranteed money to a FA signing next winter. I have no idea who that player will be but I fully expect them to spend more than $68M on a single player. There are a number of players that fall into the $68M to $100M contract range that are both viable and really good options. I’ve stated JDM is my personal preference but I also like the idea of Castellanos.

Players like Colome, Herrera, Nova, and Jay aren’t necessarily bad additions. Those guys are useful pieces for many contenders. They only look bad because there is nothing else around them. If the prospects develop as we are hoping, those guys are solid complementary pieces. Colome and Herrera would be high leverage relievers on most teams. Nova would be a #5 starter at worst on most teams. Jay would be a 4th OF on a lot of teams.

Why rule out all free agents ages 29-35? That makes no sense. The Cubs don’t win the World Series without signing 31 year old Jon Lester.

Ok, I think a team payroll next year of $125M certainly still allows them the type of flexibility they desire in the future.

Where did he say a team payroll of $100M was some magical threshold for the organization? I don’t recall that.

I mean they did bring in a bunch of MLB players this winter (not stars but actual MLB players) and are still under $100M. Even if they add a few more of those next winter, which should become more difficult to find a roster spot for marginal MLB talent if the prospects perform and start filling those spots, they will still be looking at a sub $100M payroll unless they add impact FA players.

Not to mention they only have $12.5M in payroll commitments next season.

Isn’t Archer essentially a modern day Javy Vazquez? Advanced metrics love him and his FIP/WAR always look great but he consistently underperforms his advanced metrics with a very mediocre ERA. He’s also on the wrong side of 30 and his numbers have regressed for several years now. Hard pass, especially if a trade involves anyone of value.

Does Lambert ever throw a ball? Serious question because I feel like he’s only thrown strikes this spring.

Even with a repeat of his 2018 season this year, I’d still be shocked if he beats $110M guaranteed. How many AL teams, besides the white sox, are willing to pay that kind of money that don’t already have the DH slot covered?

You still haven’t explained why his list of suitors and market will greatly improve from what he experienced last winter. I would be shocked if he exceeds $110 guaranteed.

I believe 4/85 with a fifth option in the range of $20M with a $5 buyout is the type of contract JD will be looking at. I don’t see him topping his 5/110 contract signed with the Red Sox since he will be two years older and likely have a QO attached (whereas he didn’t last time around). Unless he experiences significant regression this year, I’d be all over 4/85 with a fifth year option. Even if he averages 135 wRC+ over those 4 years, which is a substantial drop in production from his last two years, he’d still compile ~10 fWAR over that period with ~500 PA/yr.

What makes you think he will beat his 5/110 contract he signed with the Red Sox when he was 30 yo rather than 32 yo?

Agreed!

I’m warming on the idea of Castellanos. More versatile and younger than JD. Having said that, I’d still prefer JD.